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Forums - Politics - Clinton has clinched nomination-Also, Clinton or Trump?

Veknoid_Outcast said:
Johnw1104 said:

The system is definitely weighted heavily in her favor, but that still has been somewhat overstated in regards to impact prior to the use of super-delegates; Clinton is simply more popular than Sanders, and given the primaries have actually favored Sanders as compared to mail-ins and polling (which are traditionally more accurate for the eventual elections), her ~3 million vote lead and lead in the elected delegates count is fairly telling despite the support she receives from the party and her many endorsements.

Sanders has benefited enormously from probably the weakest field we've seen from the Democrats since the days of Dukakis to contend with (if there was even one conventional democrat in this race not named Hillary they'd likely be running away with this) as well as being (along with Trump) the first social media candidates (Trump was likewise hated by both the news and his party and yet pulled away), but even then he still has a ceiling due to how far from the center he openly admits he is. On that front, his integrity (as in that thing Trump chucked out the window) has doomed him as most of the country is still uncomfortable with politics that stray that far too the left.

Of course, if he somehow did win the nomination, this may be the first time someone of his kind would actually have a shot of winning as the Republicans are ALSO in the worst shape they've been since Trump's former Reform Party blew any chance the Republicans as Ross Perot ate up their votes. That may weigh on the minds of the superdelegates if a true shitstorm hits Clinton in the coming days, but as you say that's about the only chance left for him at this point.

In regards to Nate Silver and his team, I still post their articles as they are exceedingly insightful and interesting reads, but it's funny to note that for the first time they (and especially Nate himself) were horribly wrong this election cycle. I recall Nate confidently giving Trump a 2% chance about a year ago, and Bernie has shot well past any projections they had. As I stated earlier, the importance of endorsements and mainstream media have diminished due to the rise of social media, and that seems to have benefited figures as vastly different as Sanders and Trump; people are actively rejecting what they believe to be mainstream in numbers never seen before, and so their predictive models and polling failed them.

Allow me to contradict myself in regards to endorsements as I close though lol... One interesting factor that could essentially be the kingmaker is the Obama endorsement which he still holds. If Clinton continues to look bad and Sanders exceeds expectations today, his endorsement could sway superdelegates. It's almost impossible that he'd stab the Clintons in the back like that, though, and if he endorsed Hillary it'd end there and then.

I was reading in the Times a report that Obama is eager to formally support Clinton and take the fight to Trump. So that endorsement may not be far away.

He's always been close to the Clintons. If anything, I suspect he's just waiting to see how bad this Clinton stuff gets before he lends her his endorsement, as he could have essentially ended this race a while ago.



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Hillary clinched the nomination? I must have passed out for a month and woke up in July. Last I heard, she was about 500 pledged delegates short of the "100%" certainty the OP claims.



I really don't like Hillary but I'll vote for her mostly because she probably won't end up starting a nuclear war like Trump would.



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hershel_layton said:

Hillary Clinton is the first woman to be nominated by a major party. Unlike in 2008, she hasn't fallen to anyone. She will go up against Donald Trump, who will represent the Republicans.


Now that we are 100% sure of who will represent each side,...

We aren't 100% sure, yet. Clinton has notionally got the nomination, but that's on the basis of including superdelegates, who can change their mind at any time up to the convention.

For us to be 100% sure, Clinton has to break the 50% mark on pledged delegates alone. In other words, she needs 2383 pledged delegates. To date, she has gotten 1812. She still needs 571 more delegates to clinch the nomination, and she needs that 571 in pledged delegates to prevent a contested convention.

There are 694 pledged delegates up for grabs today, and another 20 next Tuesday. For Clinton to be 100% certain to be the candidate, she needs to win 80% of the remaining pledged delegates. Otherwise, it's still plausible that something happens between now and the convention that results in superdelegates switching to Sanders en masse.

Right at this moment, including the pledged delegates, Clinton is exactly on 2383 delegates, notionally. So if we suppose that Sanders gets all remaining superdelegates, then for every delegate Clinton gets in these final primaries, Sanders will need to convince one superdelegate to switch to him... plus one more to push him ahead by 1 at the end.



Ultr said:
hershel_layton said:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/06/politics/hillary-clinton-nomination-2016/index.html

 

Do you even read what you post? Do you know the democratic nomination process?

 

"Secretary Clinton does not have and will not have the requisite number of pledged delegates to secure the nomination"

Well look, do you think Bernie will truly beat her? With the media giving no attention to him?

She basically wins.



 

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DraconianAC said:

OH yes, Nate Silver's website. He has been the athority of polling for a while now. I even read his book, The Signal and the Noise. Lets get it straight, I understand it is a very large uphill battle, the establishment basicallly made it this way. He had no coverage from any news outlet including NPR, as compared to Barack Obama, but I understand why now; my candidate is not part of the democratic establishment, and he is not bought out by especial interest, so of-course its going to be difficult.

With all the obstruction he has still been able to obtain ~46 percent of the delegates in this rigged democratic primary. You may not believe it, but there has been many reports of voter suppression and fraud in this primary, and I would understand if you're skeptical, its not on the mainstream media, LOL. Like any real news is now on there at all.

The longer Bernie Sanders is fighting and sending out a message to the establishment, the better; maybe by then, the FBI get's off their ass and actually indites her, instead of waiting until after Septemeber, when it will do the most damage.

my goodness. This is so shocking!

 

/sarcasm

 

I think it's safe to say that we all know there are things going on behind the curtains. I respect Bernie Sanders more than Hillary and Trump; unfortunately, I just don't see him managing to beat them



 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/22/2016- Made a bet with Ganoncrotch that the first 6 months of 2017 will be worse than 2016. A poll will be made to determine the winner. Loser has to take a picture of them imitating their profile picture.

hershel_layton said:
Ultr said:

Do you even read what you post? Do you know the democratic nomination process?

 

"Secretary Clinton does not have and will not have the requisite number of pledged delegates to secure the nomination"

Well look, do you think Bernie will truly beat her? With the media giving no attention to him?

She basically wins.

It's unlikely, but you said 100% certain, and it's not. It might only be a 0.1% chance that Sanders ends up getting there, but that means it's not 100% certain.



postofficebuddy said:

I really don't like Hillary but I'll vote for her mostly because she probably won't end up starting a nuclear war like Trump would.

A new war breaking out in Europe is the number one concern why people should vote against Clinton. She is so pro-Russian, it's terrifying. The moment she gets elected, a countdown starts in Europe. Hopefully the administration would limit the harm she can cause, but she would cause harm none-the-less.

Why couldn't you've elected Cruz :-/



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Bullshit thread filled with lies by the TC. Hillary have not won the nomination, mods need to lock this this up.