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Forums - Politics - Clinton has clinched nomination-Also, Clinton or Trump?

This thread is crap, I'm sorry, but she doesn't have anything yet until the convention. Bernie Sanders is going to take it all the way there because of people like me who have volunteered and donated to his candidacy. He owes nothing to the DNC that has done nothing, but been obstructionist since day one. CNN, MSNBC, CBS, etc.. are all corporate owned news establishments that no longer report the news accurately, they are joke now.

She only has about ~1800 pledge delegates, and super delegates don't count until they vote(PERIOD)



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DraconianAC said:
This thread is crap, I'm sorry, but she doesn't have anything yet until the convention. Bernie Sanders is going to take it all the way there because of people like me who have volunteered and donated to his candidacy. He owes nothing to the DNC that has done nothing, but been obstructionist since day one. CNN, MSNBC, CBS, etc.. are all corporate owned news establishments that no longer report the news accurately, they are joke now.

She only has about ~1800 pledge delegates, and super delegates don't count until they vote(PERIOD)

There's about 5 1/2 feet of dirt on Sanders atm. We'll know whether that last 1/2 foot of dirt is warranted or not by the end of today, but I think you understate how large Clinton's lead is... I suggest you read through this assessment of the situation, as it's very well written:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-clinches-democratic-nomination-according-to-ap/



Having to listen to people talk when they have little to no idea what they're talking about is bad enough having to read their ignorance is too much. The media is to blame, what's left of it that can be called news is based on neutrality when it should be objective.



I'd vote Ted Cruz, but since he's out of the race, I'd drink a glass of whisky and vote Trump. Like, whatever. At least it would be funny. I can't possibly imagine him doing worse, than what that awful woman would do should she win.



Wii U is a GCN 2 - I called it months before the release!

My Vita to-buy list: The Walking Dead, Persona 4 Golden, Need for Speed: Most Wanted, TearAway, Ys: Memories of Celceta, Muramasa: The Demon Blade, History: Legends of War, FIFA 13, Final Fantasy HD X, X-2, Worms Revolution Extreme, The Amazing Spiderman, Batman: Arkham Origins Blackgate - too many no-gaemz :/

My consoles: PS2 Slim, PS3 Slim 320 GB, PSV 32 GB, Wii, DSi.

Yet another headline:
"Trans-Pacific Partnership: US State Department Delaying Release of Hillary Clinton's Emails on Deal, Report Says"

They claim the release is being delayed until November... not a surprising choice of month haha

These are the sorts of headlines that are necessary to have any chance of stopping Hillary at this point, but there's very little time left and she seems to be shrugging off these controversies almost like Trump has been.



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OH yes, Nate Silver's website. He has been the athority of polling for a while now. I even read his book, The Signal and the Noise. Lets get it straight, I understand it is a very large uphill battle, the establishment basicallly made it this way. He had no coverage from any news outlet including NPR, as compared to Barack Obama, but I understand why now; my candidate is not part of the democratic establishment, and he is not bought out by especial interest, so of-course its going to be difficult.

With all the obstruction he has still been able to obtain ~46 percent of the delegates in this rigged democratic primary. You may not believe it, but there has been many reports of voter suppression and fraud in this primary, and I would understand if you're skeptical, its not on the mainstream media, LOL. Like any real news is now on there at all.

The longer Bernie Sanders is fighting and sending out a message to the establishment, the better; maybe by then, the FBI get's off their ass and actually indites her, instead of waiting until after Septemeber, when it will do the most damage.



Johnw1104 said:
Ultr said:

Im not even American and I know that clinton has not been nominated. how can you think that she is the nominee? As far as I know the nominee is only known in Juli.

Ultr said:

Do you even read what you post? Do you know the democratic nomination process?

 

"Secretary Clinton does not have and will not have the requisite number of pledged delegates to secure the nomination"

It's really a matter of semantics as, barring something drastic (which is unusually not totally implausible due to Clinton's ongoing FBI investigation), she has indeed clinched the Democratic nomination. I'm not aware of any primary in modern history that was uncertain prior to the delegates actually declaring their choice; there may be some exception, but it's generally known long before then who will be the nominee. This is why, without any remaining competition, Trump is still being called the "Presumptive Nominee". It's this title that Clinton has just earned as opposed to just plan old "nominee", but again, historically speaking that's generally just a matter of semantics as one goes on to be the other just about every time unless it was used improperly (as in prior to having the required number of presumed delegates).

Ultr, you've extracted a quote from someone with some fairly obvious motives in the camp of Bernie Sanders. A more accurate quote directly from the cited article would be these:

"Hillary Clinton clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Monday, according to CNN's delegate and superdelegate count"

"A strong showing in Puerto Rico's Democratic primary on Sunday and additional support from superdelegates put Clinton, 68, over the top to become the presumptive nominee. She has secured 1,812 pledged delegates and 572 superdelegates for a total of 2,384 delegates -- one more than needed for nomination."

Basically, the only chance that Clinton doesn't win at this point is if some information proves damning enough to sway the superdelegates to jump ship for Bernie. This would be rather unprecedented, though. Her lead, after all, is substantial (13.5 million votes to Bernie's 10.5 million), her pledged delegate count has been growing rather than shrinking since March, and she is far closer to the center. Bernie is no Obama, and it would take quite a lot to cause a similar shift of support this time around.

Here's a really useful bit of information to show just how far ahead Clinton actually is from the guys and gals of fivethirtyeight:

"On Tuesday, Clinton will almost certainly clinch majorities of elected delegates and the popular vote. Suppose that Sanders, who currently trails Clinton by a narrow 5 percentage points in our California polling average, were to win the state by 20 percentage points instead. Even in that case, Sanders would still trail Clinton nationally by almost 200 elected delegates and about 2 million votes, depending on turnout in California.

In fact, Clinton can still win an elected delegate majority provided that she wins just 215 of the remaining 714 pledged delegates available on Tuesday and in the DC primary next week, or 30 percent... Thus, even if Sanders won every remaining contest 70-30 --- by 40 percentage points --- he'd still only roughly tie Clinton in pledged delegates and even then would very probably still trail her in the popular vote."

I'll link the article at the end, but it paints an even worse picture for Sanders. At this point, nothing outside of a world-shattering political scandal will result in anything but a Clinton nomination. It's not incorrect to say that Clinton isn't the nominee right now, then, but it's a virtual guarantee, and they are not wrong for following convention and declaring her the presumptive nominee.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-clinches-democratic-nomination-according-to-ap/

So she is not the nominee.

That's all that counts you can say whatever you want. She obviously is not the nominee.

Try again later when she actually is the nominee



Ultr said:
Johnw1104 said:

It's really a matter of semantics as, barring something drastic (which is unusually not totally implausible due to Clinton's ongoing FBI investigation), she has indeed clinched the Democratic nomination. I'm not aware of any primary in modern history that was uncertain prior to the delegates actually declaring their choice; there may be some exception, but it's generally known long before then who will be the nominee. This is why, without any remaining competition, Trump is still being called the "Presumptive Nominee". It's this title that Clinton has just earned as opposed to just plan old "nominee", but again, historically speaking that's generally just a matter of semantics as one goes on to be the other just about every time unless it was used improperly (as in prior to having the required number of presumed delegates).

Ultr, you've extracted a quote from someone with some fairly obvious motives in the camp of Bernie Sanders. A more accurate quote directly from the cited article would be these:

"Hillary Clinton clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Monday, according to CNN's delegate and superdelegate count"

"A strong showing in Puerto Rico's Democratic primary on Sunday and additional support from superdelegates put Clinton, 68, over the top to become the presumptive nominee. She has secured 1,812 pledged delegates and 572 superdelegates for a total of 2,384 delegates -- one more than needed for nomination."

Basically, the only chance that Clinton doesn't win at this point is if some information proves damning enough to sway the superdelegates to jump ship for Bernie. This would be rather unprecedented, though. Her lead, after all, is substantial (13.5 million votes to Bernie's 10.5 million), her pledged delegate count has been growing rather than shrinking since March, and she is far closer to the center. Bernie is no Obama, and it would take quite a lot to cause a similar shift of support this time around.

Here's a really useful bit of information to show just how far ahead Clinton actually is from the guys and gals of fivethirtyeight:

"On Tuesday, Clinton will almost certainly clinch majorities of elected delegates and the popular vote. Suppose that Sanders, who currently trails Clinton by a narrow 5 percentage points in our California polling average, were to win the state by 20 percentage points instead. Even in that case, Sanders would still trail Clinton nationally by almost 200 elected delegates and about 2 million votes, depending on turnout in California.

In fact, Clinton can still win an elected delegate majority provided that she wins just 215 of the remaining 714 pledged delegates available on Tuesday and in the DC primary next week, or 30 percent... Thus, even if Sanders won every remaining contest 70-30 --- by 40 percentage points --- he'd still only roughly tie Clinton in pledged delegates and even then would very probably still trail her in the popular vote."

I'll link the article at the end, but it paints an even worse picture for Sanders. At this point, nothing outside of a world-shattering political scandal will result in anything but a Clinton nomination. It's not incorrect to say that Clinton isn't the nominee right now, then, but it's a virtual guarantee, and they are not wrong for following convention and declaring her the presumptive nominee.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-clinches-democratic-nomination-according-to-ap/

So she is not the nominee.

That's all that counts you can say whatever you want. She obviously is not the nominee.

Try again later when she actually is the nominee

If this bucks the historical trend of every presidential run in modern American politics, then yes, she may wind up being only an actual presumptive nominee, and not the eventual nominee.

That's not impossible given how bizarre this cycle has been and the ongoing investigations into her background, but they are not wrong to be following the convention of declaring her the presumptive nominee right now. They're using the same methods they always have, and they tend not to be wrong... declaring someone the "Presumptive Nominee" to this date has generally been synonymous with referring to the future president as President-elect until they are sworn into office; they differ in nature, but in practice and result they have always been essentially the same.

Of course none of this matters; it's very likely we're mere hours away from it being formally settled, though Sanders seems like the type that might drag this out in the hopes that enough damning news relating to Clinton will cause her to lose support. She's hopelessly ahead in the popular vote, a centrist, and also well ahead in elected delegates before super delegates even enter the equation, though, so that's exceedingly unlikely.



DraconianAC said:

OH yes, Nate Silver's website. He has been the athority of polling for a while now. I even read his book, The Signal and the Noise. Lets get it straight, I understand it is a very large uphill battle, the establishment basicallly made it this way. He had no coverage from any news outlet including NPR, as compared to Barack Obama, but I understand why now; my candidate is not part of the democratic establishment, and he is not bought out by especial interest, so of-course its going to be difficult.

With all the obstruction he has still been able to obtain ~46 percent of the delegates in this rigged democratic primary. You may not believe it, but there has been many reports of voter suppression and fraud in this primary, and I would understand if you're skeptical, its not on the mainstream media, LOL. Like any real news is now on there at all.

The longer Bernie Sanders is fighting and sending out a message to the establishment, the better; maybe by then, the FBI get's off their ass and actually indites her, instead of waiting until after Septemeber, when it will do the most damage.

The system is definitely weighted heavily in her favor, but that still has been somewhat overstated in regards to impact prior to the use of super-delegates; Clinton is simply more popular than Sanders, and given the primaries have actually favored Sanders as compared to mail-ins and polling (which are traditionally more accurate for the eventual elections), her ~3 million vote lead and lead in the elected delegates count is fairly telling despite the support she receives from the party and her many endorsements.

Sanders has benefited enormously from probably the weakest field we've seen from the Democrats since the days of Dukakis to contend with (if there was even one conventional democrat in this race not named Hillary they'd likely be running away with this) as well as being (along with Trump) the first social media candidates (Trump was likewise hated by both the news and his party and yet pulled away), but even then he still has a ceiling due to how far from the center he openly admits he is. On that front, his integrity (as in that thing Trump chucked out the window) has doomed him as most of the country is still uncomfortable with politics that stray that far too the left.

Of course, if he somehow did win the nomination, this may be the first time someone of his kind would actually have a shot of winning as the Republicans are ALSO in the worst shape they've been since Trump's former Reform Party blew any chance the Republicans as Ross Perot ate up their votes. That may weigh on the minds of the superdelegates if a true shitstorm hits Clinton in the coming days, but as you say that's about the only chance left for him at this point.

In regards to Nate Silver and his team, I still post their articles as they are exceedingly insightful and interesting reads, but it's funny to note that for the first time they (and especially Nate himself) were horribly wrong this election cycle. I recall Nate confidently giving Trump a 2% chance about a year ago, and Bernie has shot well past any projections they had. As I stated earlier, the importance of endorsements and mainstream media have diminished due to the rise of social media, and that seems to have benefited figures as vastly different as Sanders and Trump; people are actively rejecting what they believe to be mainstream in numbers never seen before, and so their predictive models and polling failed them.

Allow me to contradict myself in regards to endorsements as I close though lol... One interesting factor that could essentially be the kingmaker is the Obama endorsement which he still holds. If Clinton continues to look bad and Sanders exceeds expectations today, his endorsement could sway superdelegates. It's almost impossible that he'd stab the Clintons in the back like that, though, and if he endorsed Hillary it'd end there and then.



Johnw1104 said:
DraconianAC said:

OH yes, Nate Silver's website. He has been the athority of polling for a while now. I even read his book, The Signal and the Noise. Lets get it straight, I understand it is a very large uphill battle, the establishment basicallly made it this way. He had no coverage from any news outlet including NPR, as compared to Barack Obama, but I understand why now; my candidate is not part of the democratic establishment, and he is not bought out by especial interest, so of-course its going to be difficult.

With all the obstruction he has still been able to obtain ~46 percent of the delegates in this rigged democratic primary. You may not believe it, but there has been many reports of voter suppression and fraud in this primary, and I would understand if you're skeptical, its not on the mainstream media, LOL. Like any real news is now on there at all.

The longer Bernie Sanders is fighting and sending out a message to the establishment, the better; maybe by then, the FBI get's off their ass and actually indites her, instead of waiting until after Septemeber, when it will do the most damage.

The system is definitely weighted heavily in her favor, but that still has been somewhat overstated in regards to impact prior to the use of super-delegates; Clinton is simply more popular than Sanders, and given the primaries have actually favored Sanders as compared to mail-ins and polling (which are traditionally more accurate for the eventual elections), her ~3 million vote lead and lead in the elected delegates count is fairly telling despite the support she receives from the party and her many endorsements.

Sanders has benefited enormously from probably the weakest field we've seen from the Democrats since the days of Dukakis to contend with (if there was even one conventional democrat in this race not named Hillary they'd likely be running away with this) as well as being (along with Trump) the first social media candidates (Trump was likewise hated by both the news and his party and yet pulled away), but even then he still has a ceiling due to how far from the center he openly admits he is. On that front, his integrity (as in that thing Trump chucked out the window) has doomed him as most of the country is still uncomfortable with politics that stray that far too the left.

Of course, if he somehow did win the nomination, this may be the first time someone of his kind would actually have a shot of winning as the Republicans are ALSO in the worst shape they've been since Trump's former Reform Party blew any chance the Republicans as Ross Perot ate up their votes. That may weigh on the minds of the superdelegates if a true shitstorm hits Clinton in the coming days, but as you say that's about the only chance left for him at this point.

In regards to Nate Silver and his team, I still post their articles as they are exceedingly insightful and interesting reads, but it's funny to note that for the first time they (and especially Nate himself) were horribly wrong this election cycle. I recall Nate confidently giving Trump a 2% chance about a year ago, and Bernie has shot well past any projections they had. As I stated earlier, the importance of endorsements and mainstream media have diminished due to the rise of social media, and that seems to have benefited figures as vastly different as Sanders and Trump; people are actively rejecting what they believe to be mainstream in numbers never seen before, and so their predictive models and polling failed them.

Allow me to contradict myself in regards to endorsements as I close though lol... One interesting factor that could essentially be the kingmaker is the Obama endorsement which he still holds. If Clinton continues to look bad and Sanders exceeds expectations today, his endorsement could sway superdelegates. It's almost impossible that he'd stab the Clintons in the back like that, though, and if he endorsed Hillary it'd end there and then.

I was reading in the Times a report that Obama is eager to formally support Clinton and take the fight to Trump. So that endorsement may not be far away.