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Johnw1104 on 07 June 2016
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Ultr said:
Johnw1104 said:

It's really a matter of semantics as, barring something drastic (which is unusually not totally implausible due to Clinton's ongoing FBI investigation), she has indeed clinched the Democratic nomination. I'm not aware of any primary in modern history that was uncertain prior to the delegates actually declaring their choice; there may be some exception, but it's generally known long before then who will be the nominee. This is why, without any remaining competition, Trump is still being called the "Presumptive Nominee". It's this title that Clinton has just earned as opposed to just plan old "nominee", but again, historically speaking that's generally just a matter of semantics as one goes on to be the other just about every time unless it was used improperly (as in prior to having the required number of presumed delegates).

Ultr, you've extracted a quote from someone with some fairly obvious motives in the camp of Bernie Sanders. A more accurate quote directly from the cited article would be these:

"Hillary Clinton clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Monday, according to CNN's delegate and superdelegate count"

"A strong showing in Puerto Rico's Democratic primary on Sunday and additional support from superdelegates put Clinton, 68, over the top to become the presumptive nominee. She has secured 1,812 pledged delegates and 572 superdelegates for a total of 2,384 delegates -- one more than needed for nomination."

Basically, the only chance that Clinton doesn't win at this point is if some information proves damning enough to sway the superdelegates to jump ship for Bernie. This would be rather unprecedented, though. Her lead, after all, is substantial (13.5 million votes to Bernie's 10.5 million), her pledged delegate count has been growing rather than shrinking since March, and she is far closer to the center. Bernie is no Obama, and it would take quite a lot to cause a similar shift of support this time around.

Here's a really useful bit of information to show just how far ahead Clinton actually is from the guys and gals of fivethirtyeight:

"On Tuesday, Clinton will almost certainly clinch majorities of elected delegates and the popular vote. Suppose that Sanders, who currently trails Clinton by a narrow 5 percentage points in our California polling average, were to win the state by 20 percentage points instead. Even in that case, Sanders would still trail Clinton nationally by almost 200 elected delegates and about 2 million votes, depending on turnout in California.

In fact, Clinton can still win an elected delegate majority provided that she wins just 215 of the remaining 714 pledged delegates available on Tuesday and in the DC primary next week, or 30 percent... Thus, even if Sanders won every remaining contest 70-30 --- by 40 percentage points --- he'd still only roughly tie Clinton in pledged delegates and even then would very probably still trail her in the popular vote."

I'll link the article at the end, but it paints an even worse picture for Sanders. At this point, nothing outside of a world-shattering political scandal will result in anything but a Clinton nomination. It's not incorrect to say that Clinton isn't the nominee right now, then, but it's a virtual guarantee, and they are not wrong for following convention and declaring her the presumptive nominee.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-clinches-democratic-nomination-according-to-ap/

So she is not the nominee.

That's all that counts you can say whatever you want. She obviously is not the nominee.

Try again later when she actually is the nominee

If this bucks the historical trend of every presidential run in modern American politics, then yes, she may wind up being only an actual presumptive nominee, and not the eventual nominee.

That's not impossible given how bizarre this cycle has been and the ongoing investigations into her background, but they are not wrong to be following the convention of declaring her the presumptive nominee right now. They're using the same methods they always have, and they tend not to be wrong... declaring someone the "Presumptive Nominee" to this date has generally been synonymous with referring to the future president as President-elect until they are sworn into office; they differ in nature, but in practice and result they have always been essentially the same.

Of course none of this matters; it's very likely we're mere hours away from it being formally settled, though Sanders seems like the type that might drag this out in the hopes that enough damning news relating to Clinton will cause her to lose support. She's hopelessly ahead in the popular vote, a centrist, and also well ahead in elected delegates before super delegates even enter the equation, though, so that's exceedingly unlikely.