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Forums - Sony Discussion - Report: PS3 Continues to Drive Blu-ray; Over 132M Homes to Own Blu-ray Players in 2012

MontanaHatchet on 26 March 2008
rocketpig said:
30 million? Uh, I doubt it. Standalone player sales have been almost non-existent to this point (at best, they are at the same number as HD-DVD standalones, which sold ~1m WW) and only high-end computers come with BD-ROMS - and even then, many still don't. Other than Sony, most high-end manufacturers are only including BD-ROMs as options, if they include them at all.

That means Sony would have to sell at least 25-26m PS3s by the end of 2008 to meet that 30m number.

Sorry, not gonna happen.

 They might also be talking about Blu-ray disc drives.



 

 

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rocketpig on 26 March 2008
MontanaHatchet said:
rocketpig said:
30 million? Uh, I doubt it. Standalone player sales have been almost non-existent to this point (at best, they are at the same number as HD-DVD standalones, which sold ~1m WW) and only high-end computers come with BD-ROMS - and even then, many still don't. Other than Sony, most high-end manufacturers are only including BD-ROMs as options, if they include them at all.

That means Sony would have to sell at least 25-26m PS3s by the end of 2008 to meet that 30m number.

Sorry, not gonna happen.

They might also be talking about Blu-ray disc drives.


I was including those. Browse most major manufacturers. They only offer BD-ROM drives as options or they don't offer them at all. Very few companies other than Sony are bundling them into a stock system.




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makingmusic476 on 26 March 2008
rocketpig said:
makingmusic476 said:
DragonLord said:
I met my Dad for lunch yesterday and we sorta got into an argument because he said he was going to buy a ps3 for a blu-ray player. He was going to get a stand alone blu-ray player, but for the price, he said he would be better off with the added functionality of a ps3--internet browser, hard drive, gaming, etc.

Anyhow, I agreed with him on getting a ps3...what made me mad is that he wants to get one NOW. I'm trying to talk him into waiting until June so he can get a free copy of MGS4 (and give it to me!)

So we argued...lol, he wants to get one now, I want him to wait.

My point is, my Dad was one of the last people in the world that I would expect to buy a ps3, but he's going to because of blu-ray. It will keep growing.

The ps3 is doing it's part to bring in non-gamers (though not nearly to the extent of the Wii). Many people on AVS bought a ps3 simply because it was the best Blu-Ray player on the market for over a year (and arguably still is), and many have now picked up a game or two here and there when they wouldn't have previously.


It's great that people are picking up PS3s solely for Blu-ray functionality, but does that help Sony much now that the HD format battle is over?

A few things:

1. These early adopters might or might not buy any games.
2. The Blu-ray selection is still, let me put it gently, limited. If blockbusters of yore were being released frequently, Sony would have an easier time selling more movies and make more money.
3. The PS3 is still either sold at a small loss, is breaking even, or is making a small amount. Either way, it's pretty much a stalemate as far as profits are concerned.
4. By the time the movie selection is improved enough to start generating real sales numbers (and profit), standalone players will surely be cheaper than a PS3.
5. If someone is an early adopter/audiophile, they will probably buy another BD player at this point and it will be a standalone unit.

So, Sony used the PS3 to trojan horse the BD format. It worked. Good for them. But unless these people start buying games or loads of movies before standalone players drop below the price of a PS3, Sony either lost money on the PS3 sale or broke even on the deal. It was a ballsy move to win the format war but as far as the PS3 is concerned (and its game selection, third developer support, and extra revenue needed from licensing), this isn't a particularly good situation for Sony to be in.


They'll still make money on every Blu-Ray disc sold, whether it's to a ps3 owner or not.

Also, if ps3 sales hold up as standalone player prices drop, then we'll know that all system bought from that point on will be bought with the intention to purchase games.

And it's not like multiplatform titles have been selling horribly on the ps3 compared to the 360, given the current install base disparity.

About point #5, are you'll saying that they'll buy a standlaone unit in addition to their ps3, or to replace their ps3?



Words Of Wisdom on 26 March 2008
makingmusic476 said:
rocketpig said:

It's great that people are picking up PS3s solely for Blu-ray functionality, but does that help Sony much now that the HD format battle is over?

A few things:

1. These early adopters might or might not buy any games.
2. The Blu-ray selection is still, let me put it gently, limited. If blockbusters of yore were being released frequently, Sony would have an easier time selling more movies and make more money.
3. The PS3 is still either sold at a small loss, is breaking even, or is making a small amount. Either way, it's pretty much a stalemate as far as profits are concerned.
4. By the time the movie selection is improved enough to start generating real sales numbers (and profit), standalone players will surely be cheaper than a PS3.
5. If someone is an early adopter/audiophile, they will probably buy another BD player at this point and it will be a standalone unit.

So, Sony used the PS3 to trojan horse the BD format. It worked. Good for them. But unless these people start buying games or loads of movies before standalone players drop below the price of a PS3, Sony either lost money on the PS3 sale or broke even on the deal. It was a ballsy move to win the format war but as far as the PS3 is concerned (and its game selection, third developer support, and extra revenue needed from licensing), this isn't a particularly good situation for Sony to be in.


They'll still make money on every Blu-Ray disc sold, whether it's to a ps3 owner or not.

Also, if ps3 sales hold up as standalone player prices drop, then we'll know that all system bought from that point on will be bought with the intention to purchase games.

And it's not like multiplatform titles have been selling horribly on the ps3 compared to the 360, given the current install base disparity.

About point #6, are you'll saying that they'll buy a standlaone unit in addition to their ps3, or to replace their ps3?


Rocketpig didn't have a point #6.  Did you mean 5?



makingmusic476 on 26 March 2008
Words Of Wisdom said:
makingmusic476 said:
rocketpig said:

It's great that people are picking up PS3s solely for Blu-ray functionality, but does that help Sony much now that the HD format battle is over?

A few things:

1. These early adopters might or might not buy any games.
2. The Blu-ray selection is still, let me put it gently, limited. If blockbusters of yore were being released frequently, Sony would have an easier time selling more movies and make more money.
3. The PS3 is still either sold at a small loss, is breaking even, or is making a small amount. Either way, it's pretty much a stalemate as far as profits are concerned.
4. By the time the movie selection is improved enough to start generating real sales numbers (and profit), standalone players will surely be cheaper than a PS3.
5. If someone is an early adopter/audiophile, they will probably buy another BD player at this point and it will be a standalone unit.

So, Sony used the PS3 to trojan horse the BD format. It worked. Good for them. But unless these people start buying games or loads of movies before standalone players drop below the price of a PS3, Sony either lost money on the PS3 sale or broke even on the deal. It was a ballsy move to win the format war but as far as the PS3 is concerned (and its game selection, third developer support, and extra revenue needed from licensing), this isn't a particularly good situation for Sony to be in.


They'll still make money on every Blu-Ray disc sold, whether it's to a ps3 owner or not.

Also, if ps3 sales hold up as standalone player prices drop, then we'll know that all system bought from that point on will be bought with the intention to purchase games.

And it's not like multiplatform titles have been selling horribly on the ps3 compared to the 360, given the current install base disparity.

About point #6, are you'll saying that they'll buy a standlaone unit in addition to their ps3, or to replace their ps3?


Rocketpig didn't have a point #6. Did you mean 5?


Maybe. >_>

*edits post* 



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rocketpig on 26 March 2008

They'll still make money on every Blu-Ray disc sold, whether it's to a ps3 owner or not.

Also, if ps3 sales hold up as standalone player prices drop, then we'll know that all system bought from that point on will be bought with the intention to purchase games.

And it's not like multiplatform titles have been selling horribly on the ps3 compared to the 360, given the current install base disparity.

About point #6, are you'll saying that they'll buy a standlaone unit in addition to their ps3, or to replace their ps3?


Yes, they'll make money on every BD disc sold. The thing is that they're not selling very well. Sony also makes a boatload more on each PS3 game than it does each BD movie that is printed.

Absolutely. I didn't bring up console sales numbers because it's not really relevant to the point I was making.

Install base attachment rates are a finicky thing. As the install base grows, the attach rate drops. It's hard to say whether the PS3 is over or under performing compared to the Wii/360 in this regard because its userbase is smaller and therefore more concentrated.

Either way, it doesn't matter. If they buy a standalone unit, it doesn't matter much what they do with the PS3. Unless they're also buying games for the system, Sony either lost a shitload of money on the sale (which, at launch, will never be recouped from movie sales alone) or they will break even.

From the position of the PS3, now that the format war is won, people only buying the system as a BD player is a bad thing. The system makes its real money from games and if people aren't buying those in high enough numbers, the Playstation brand as a whole loses while the Blu-ray division reaps the rewards. This is compounded even more by the fact that other systems like the 360 also generate revenue in other ways (XBL Gold, movie/TV rentals, etc).

I'm not saying that Sony is in any real trouble but the Playstation division could really end up taking it in the shorts over this whole Blu-ray thing. 




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DragonLord on 26 March 2008
rocketpig said:
makingmusic476 said:
DragonLord said:
I met my Dad for lunch yesterday and we sorta got into an argument because he said he was going to buy a ps3 for a blu-ray player. He was going to get a stand alone blu-ray player, but for the price, he said he would be better off with the added functionality of a ps3--internet browser, hard drive, gaming, etc.

Anyhow, I agreed with him on getting a ps3...what made me mad is that he wants to get one NOW. I'm trying to talk him into waiting until June so he can get a free copy of MGS4 (and give it to me!)

So we argued...lol, he wants to get one now, I want him to wait.

My point is, my Dad was one of the last people in the world that I would expect to buy a ps3, but he's going to because of blu-ray. It will keep growing.

The ps3 is doing it's part to bring in non-gamers (though not nearly to the extent of the Wii). Many people on AVS bought a ps3 simply because it was the best Blu-Ray player on the market for over a year (and arguably still is), and many have now picked up a game or two here and there when they wouldn't have previously.


It's great that people are picking up PS3s solely for Blu-ray functionality, but does that help Sony much now that the HD format battle is over?

A few things:

1. These early adopters might or might not buy any games.
2. The Blu-ray selection is still, let me put it gently, limited. If blockbusters of yore were being released frequently, Sony would have an easier time selling more movies and make more money.
3. The PS3 is still either sold at a small loss, is breaking even, or is making a small amount. Either way, it's pretty much a stalemate as far as profits are concerned.
4. By the time the movie selection is improved enough to start generating real sales numbers (and profit), standalone players will surely be cheaper than a PS3.
5. If someone is an early adopter/audiophile, they will probably buy another BD player at this point and it will be a standalone unit.

So, Sony used the PS3 to trojan horse the BD format. It worked. Good for them. But unless these people start buying games or loads of movies before standalone players drop below the price of a PS3, Sony either lost money on the PS3 sale or broke even on the deal. It was a ballsy move to win the format war but as far as the PS3 is concerned (and its game selection, third developer support, and extra revenue needed from licensing), this isn't a particularly good situation for Sony to be in.


Sony can definitely make money off the people that buy ps3's for blu-ray only.

Hell, I own over 100 blu-ray movies already--I'm sure Sony made a few nickles off that.

My father will probably own a much larger blu-ray collection than me since he has the expendable income and is buying it solely for blu-rays.

Sony does make money off blu-ray movies---the reason they pushed it so hard.

I'm just saying that Sony would rather have my dad (and others) buy a ps3 for blu-ray movies only than not buy one at all.  There is no other way to spin it--a sale is a sale....Sony doesn't care if they make the $$$ off of games or blu-ray movies, just so they make it when the Income Statement goes public.   Sure they make more money off a game, but they're happy with movie sales too...like I said, something is better than nothing.

 http://www.hollywoodinhidef.com/blog_detail.php?id=187

Blu-ray sold a total of 9 million disc last year....it's already sold 3 million this year.

And sales are STARTING to improve.



PSN ID: Sorrow880

Gamertag: Sorrow80

Wii #: 8132 1076 3416 7450

Mars on 26 March 2008

No one and i mean NO one ever bought a PS3 purely for BR, i just don't see some 40 year old screwing around with a six axis to watch a movie. I can see some geezer buying a PS3 to watch BR while his gran kids use it for games that would make more sense.

Add the fact stand alone Br players have always been selling, if people wanted just to watch movies they got a stand alone.

Its funny as hell how Br is always some how spun as a bad thing no matter what.


DragonLord on 26 March 2008
Mars said:

No one and i mean NO one ever bought a PS3 purely for BR, i just don't see some 40 year old screwing around with a six axis to watch a movie. I can see some geezer buying a PS3 to watch BR while his gran kids use it for games that would make more sense.

Add the fact stand alone Br players have always been selling, if people wanted just to watch movies they got a stand alone.

Its funny as hell how Br is always some how spun as a bad thing no matter what.

You don't have to use a sixaxis...they make regular dvd/blu-ray remotes.

It's just as easy to use as a stand alone. 



PSN ID: Sorrow880

Gamertag: Sorrow80

Wii #: 8132 1076 3416 7450

makingmusic476 on 26 March 2008
rocketpig said:
They'll still make money on every Blu-Ray disc sold, whether it's to a ps3 owner or not.

Also, if ps3 sales hold up as standalone player prices drop, then we'll know that all system bought from that point on will be bought with the intention to purchase games.

And it's not like multiplatform titles have been selling horribly on the ps3 compared to the 360, given the current install base disparity.

About point #6, are you'll saying that they'll buy a standlaone unit in addition to their ps3, or to replace their ps3?


Yes, they'll make money on every BD disc sold. The thing is that they're not selling very well. Sony also makes a boatload more on each PS3 game than it does each BD movie that is printed.

Absolutely. I didn't bring up console sales numbers because it's not really relevant to the point I was making.

Install base attachment rates are a finicky thing. As the install base grows, the attach rate drops. It's hard to say whether the PS3 is over or under performing compared to the Wii/360 in this regard because its userbase is smaller and therefore more concentrated.

Either way, it doesn't matter. If they buy a standalone unit, it doesn't matter much what they do with the PS3. Either way, unless they're also buying games for the system, Sony either lost a shitload of money on the sale (which, at launch, will never be recouped from movie sales alone) or they will break even.

From the position of the PS3, now that the format war is won, people only buying the system as a BD player is a bad thing. The system makes the real money from games and if people aren't buying those in high enough numbers, the Playstation brand as a whole loses while the Blu-ray division reaps the rewards.

But we don't know that they're not. Sure, the attach rate is somewhat low, but that could be explained by the ps3's meager selection in comparison to the 360, which is why I brought up sales of mlutiplatform games.

And while we can't be sure whether multiplatform games are over or under performing on the ps3 compared to the 360, I think it's safe to say that they are performing reasonably well, considering at worst games are selling about 65/35 in favor of the 360 (CoD4), while some are actually selling better on the ps3 (DMC4). When the install base ratios are roughly 62:38 in favor of the 360, that's a good sign.

As more (good) games come out, the ps3 should start selling more software. After all, the ps3 hasn't had any games like Gears of War or Halo 3 yet. MGS4 (and GT5P, to a lesser extent) will be the console's first really big title.

Edit: And as DragonLord pointed out, any early adopter that bought a ps3 will most likely be buying a LOT of Blu-Ray movies.  That's why they're an early adopter in the first place.  They're movie buffs.