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Forums - Sales Discussion - February 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates up!

ZhugeEX on 13 March 2016
Aeolus451 said:
Shadow1980 said:

"Doubled overnight," you say? LTD 360 sales in the U.S. were ~22.16M by the end of Oct. 2010. After November they had grown to ~23.53M, a 6.18% increase. Not quite a doubling. By the end of 2014 the 360 was up to about 42.4M in the U.S., still not a doubling even after another four years.

The June-Oct. period of 2010 was up 57.4% from the same period in 2009, while Nov. was up by 67.2% and Dec. was up by 42%. Also releasing in November 2010 was Black Ops, which may have moved some hardware itself. At best, the Kinect was a modest short-term system seller, having a comparable effect to a modest system-selling game.

Glad you took the effort to point that all out, shadow. Kinect is an overrated peripheral in my opinion. It's not like it made candles float or something with it's minor boost to sales. Zhuge should never be a politician though. haha. You have to be vague as possible so you're more difficult to counter and there's less chance someone can do what shadow did.

Kinect is indeed over rated. But to say it only had a minor impact on sales is absolutely false. 

Why do you think Microsoft were so adament at bundling Kinect 2 from day 1. Because they were sure it would see the same sort of reaction that the original got. But the market had moved on. 



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ZhugeEX on 13 March 2016
Shadow1980 said:
ZhugeEX said:

Come on buddy, you clearly have the data in front of you. The 360 did not follow the traditional sales pattern, in fact sales increased after the Kinect came out. It was very responsible for the Install base doubling. 

@Bolded: Neither did the PS3. In the U.S. both systems peaked in 2011. That's the PS3's fifth full year and the 360's sixth. The only other system to peak later than its third full year was the Genesis, which peaked in its fourth full year, and that's pretty much entirely due to Nintendo's de facto monopoly on the market that disappeared once they were forced to relax their licensing policies.

As I've pointed out, there is a clear causal link between the release of $300 slimline models of both systems and a subsequent sustained growth to sales over the following ~2 years. The Kinect did not appear to provide a significant additional increase to the 360's sales, as I pointed out. The data is indeed in front of me, and it's telling me that at best the Kinect was a modest short-term system-seller, similar to software titles that offer decent-but-not-spectacular boosts to hardware sales the month they are released. If you can prove that the Kinect and not the 360S was the major factor from Nov. 2010 onwards, I'm all ears. I've made my case that the 360S was the culprit. Now the burden of proof is on you to prove it's the Kinect.

The majority of Kinects sold early on were in new Xbox 360 bundles. Not to existing install base. 

People were clearly willing to spend the extra $100 bucks on a bundle with Kinect than one without Kinect, in fact the average price of an Xbox 360 increased from $256 in Oct 2010 to around $306 by Jan 2011.. 1.7 million Kinects were sold in bundles during the first 3 months. The number of standalone kinects sold was less than that.

Xbox 360S and Kinect provided huge boosts in hardware and software sales and broke the traditional trend of declining HW sales units & revenue seen at this point in the lifecycle.

I think there is a lot of revisionist history going on.    



ZhugeEX on 13 March 2016
Shadow1980 said:
ZhugeEX said:

The majority of Kinects sold early on were in new Xbox 360 bundles. Not to existing install base. 

People were clearly willing to spend the extra $100 bucks on a bundle with Kinect than one without Kinect, in fact the average price of an Xbox 360 increased from $256 in Oct 2010 to around $306 by Jan 2011.. 1.7 million Kinects were sold in bundles during the first 3 months. The number of standalone kinects sold was less than that.

Citation? I want to review this information for myself. Google isn't being very helpful.

I don't think this data is public tbh, but I have it saved in my notes from the time. 

Basically you need to look at revenue numbers as well unit sale numbers. Unit sales can only tell you so much. But seriously buddy, the Kinect had a big effect on Xbox 360 sales. Microsoft were saying as much at the time as well. Xbox 360 sales really started to take off in the US after the Kinect was released and software sales for Kinect games and total revenue for Microsoft HW & SW really took off. 



Welfare on 14 March 2016

Creamsugar posted more SW. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=198296909&postcount=1962

Far Cry Primal ~ 363k (PS4 =206k | XB1 =157k)
Naruto ~ 287 288 (PS4 = ~192k | XB1 = 96k) (cream also posted the gap between Naruto and SFV was 80.6k, so SFV is ~206k/207k)
Digimon ~ 64k
Garden Warfare 2 ~ 117k (XB1 = 70k)



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Farsala on 14 March 2016
Welfare said:
Creamsugar posted more SW. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=198296909&postcount=1962

Far Cry Primal ~ 363k (PS4 =206k | XB1 =157k)
Naruto ~ 287 288 (PS4 = ~192k | XB1 = 96k) (cream also posted the gap between Naruto and SFV was 80.6k, so SFV is ~206k/207k)
Digimon ~ 64k
Garden Warfare 2 ~ 117k (XB1 = 70k)

Gives us good ranges too for everything else. Insane to think that GTAV was so close to beating Far Cry Primal.

 

Digimon seems good, especially since digital will be pretty good for this type of game. Hope for Next to come soon.



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BlowoverKing on 14 March 2016

Those are fantastic number for Digimon! It's more than likely over 100k if we include the Vita version. I'm still a little salty we didn't get a physical release for the Vita version here in the states but I still put my money where my mouth is and bought it digitally.



PSN: extremeM

PlayStation Vita Japanese Software Sales (Media Create Physical/ Famitsu Digital)

Keybladewielder on 14 March 2016
Welfare said:
Creamsugar posted more SW. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=198296909&postcount=1962

Far Cry Primal ~ 363k (PS4 =206k | XB1 =157k)
Naruto ~ 287 288 (PS4 = ~192k | XB1 = 96k) (cream also posted the gap between Naruto and SFV was 80.6k, so SFV is ~206k/207k)
Digimon ~ 64k
Garden Warfare 2 ~ 117k (XB1 = 70k)

 This is good.

Hopefully this means they'll keep localizing Digimon games.

 

 



ZhugeEX on 14 March 2016
ZhugeEX said:
TheGoldenBoy said:

So Naruto PS4 < 210k.

-30 / 2

 

You know i'm really surprised that everyone just ignored this hint. I thought it was obvious but apparently not lol. 

 

Well seeing as the number has been leaked i'll spell it out for you. Its basically a math equation. -30 divided by 2 which is -15. So all you do then is actually Takeaway 15 from the known SFV number and you get the Naruto PS4 number. 



Ryng on 14 March 2016

3DS - 176K
Vita - 19.5k



JRPGfan on 14 March 2016
Ryng_Tolu said:
3DS - 176K
Vita - 19.5k

PS4 - ~405k
XBO - ~248k
WiiU - ~69k

Entire picture complete :)

Also good to hear Digimon sales went well.