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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Predict review scores for Uncharted 4, DOOM, Mirrors Edge Catalyst, and others - VGChartz Metacritic Prediction League - May

Neoarc said:

April

Quantum Break - 83
Ratchet & Clank - 85
Dark Souls III - 90
Star Fox Zero - 86
King's Quest Chapter 3 - 82

May

Battleborn - 86

Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End - 94

DOOM - 88

Homefront: The Revolution - 80

Mirror’s Edge Catalyst - 84

Overwatch - 86

Resident Evil: Umbrella Corps - 73

Total War: WARHAMMER -80

Adding 2 more reviews for the month of May

Sherlock Holmes and Devil's Daughter - 78

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutants in Manhattan - 81



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Uncharted 4: 89

The fourth installment is usually when a game series starts to get old. The uncharted games seem to be partly immune to critic fatigue. Uncharted 2 got a 96, and Uncharted 3 only dropped to a 92. 

Doom: 79 

I bet the same team that did Elder Scrolls Online is making this game. Don't expect much. 

StarFox Zero: 83

SFZ will be a borderline clone of SF64. That's a very good thing, but a game that short won't exactly get perfect scores from modern critics. Fans of the series will eat it up though. 

Overwatch: 90

Mobas have kind of gotten stale over the years. Despite that critics and Moba fans eat it up. League is the best Moba IMO, but after two and a half years of near constant play, I don't see what else the genre has to offer me. 

Ratchet and Clank: 85

I think critic fatigue is going to set in for this one. There are already five main games in the series, and several spinoffs. 




Profrektius said:
binary solo said:
It's looking like I've finally managed to make a good prediction with Dark Souls.

I must also lodge a protest regarding the meta-meta scoring for this thread. You can't just take the average meta score, because often one review score will count towards all (or more than one) platforms' metascores. For instance, the Gamespot score (80) is included in the PS4, Xb one and PC scores. Which means it's dragging the meta-meta score down by effectively being counted 3 times if you are merely averaging the metascores. It is happening for scores above the meta-meta average too, but you can't just assume it all evens out. And yes, I'm looking for a 5 pointer for my DSIII score instead of my 1 short 4 points. I should be careful what I wish for perhaps because it could be that refininf the meta-meta score drops it down instead of lifting it up. But even if so, it's better to ensure all reviews only count once to the meta-metascore.

Yea, I have been thinking about the average of metascores and how it has some problems.

Some sites like Gamespot seem to be doing it wrong, they are supposed to specify a platform they played it on and it would only count for that unless indicated they played the other versions too, but from their review it appears they only played one version, yet they claim the review for all three platforms. (By the way, I wouldn't worry about the score yet, I imagine more reviews will come after the game actually releases, and the metascore might change significantly.)

There are also problems of Arkham Knight kind of cases, where the PC version messing up drags the score down significalty due to performace issues on one of the platforms. It could be argued that we have to able to predict any potential issues any platform might have and account for it, but as in the case of Arkham Knight, there wasn't really sufficient info available to predict such a thing. Similarily now with Quantum Break, once the PC version gets enough reviews, will drag the score down, due to performance problems. (This could have been predicted due to UWP, Win 10 and lack of PC info, but is that what these predictions are really about?)

As well as simply one platform having significantly less reviews, yet being weighed equally with other platforms when the average is taken.

While I will not change the rules in the middle of a month, if I would change them I could change them starting with May (as you need to inform people beforehand about the rules).

One of the alternatives I was thinking, was to only count the version with the most reviews. No doubt this could have problems too (Like what if two versions have vastly different scores, and both have many reviews, but I would then have to completely ignore the version with for example 2 less reviews.  And obviously I couldn't go case by case basis, as involving subjectivity in scoring here is a not a good idea.).

Would you prefer such a method, or what were you thinking exactly? What other methods do you think could work?

Well the other problem is Metacritic weights individual scores too, so we have no idea what weighting they give the Gamespot score compared the the Jimquisition. But you could perhaps weight the metascores by taking account of the number of reviews on each platform.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Cerebralbore101 said:

StarFox Zero: 83

SFZ will be a borderline clone of SF64. That's a very good thing, but a game that short won't exactly get perfect scores from modern critics. Fans of the series will eat it up though. 

Ratchet and Clank: 85

I think critic fatigue is going to set in for this one. There are already five main games in the series, and several spinoffs. 

Good job on R&C prediction, though there should be 3 predictions for April, so perhaps predict the score for Kings Quest Chapeter 3?

There should also be 5 for May, but you still have time to add them later.

binary solo said:

Well the other problem is Metacritic weights individual scores too, so we have no idea what weighting they give the Gamespot score compared the the Jimquisition. But you could perhaps weight the metascores by taking account of the number of reviews on each platform.

That is somewhat more work to get it done (and would make updating scores significantly more difficult, as simply the number of reviews for one platform (even if scores stay the same) could change the weighted metacritic score), but I suppose that could work. Sort of a mix of having the review from platorm with most reviews and the average of the platform scores. Either way I will not change scoring method in the middle of a month, but I could change that for May.



Profrektius said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

StarFox Zero: 83

SFZ will be a borderline clone of SF64. That's a very good thing, but a game that short won't exactly get perfect scores from modern critics. Fans of the series will eat it up though. 

Ratchet and Clank: 85

I think critic fatigue is going to set in for this one. There are already five main games in the series, and several spinoffs. 

Good job on R&C prediction, though there should be 3 predictions for April, so perhaps predict the score for Kings Quest Chapeter 3?

There should also be 5 for May, but you still have time to add them later.

binary solo said:

Well the other problem is Metacritic weights individual scores too, so we have no idea what weighting they give the Gamespot score compared the the Jimquisition. But you could perhaps weight the metascores by taking account of the number of reviews on each platform.

That is somewhat more work to get it done (and would make updating scores significantly more difficult, as simply the number of reviews for one platform (even if scores stay the same) could change the weighted metacritic score), but I suppose that could work. Sort of a mix of having the review from platorm with most reviews and the average of the platform scores. Either way I will not change scoring method in the middle of a month, but I could change that for May.

Thanks xD 

King's Quest Chapter 3 (PC Version): 67

King's Quest Chapter 3 (Console Versions): 63


I have no experience with King's Quest games. I did a teeny bit of research on it. It looks like the first chapter was enjoyable, but Sierra has run out of ideas with the sequel. I'm sure I'll get this one terribly wrong. xD

What else can I predict for April and May? Is there a list somewhere?

Edit: Nevermind, I see it. I'll add some predictions when I get home from work. 



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This is rather a return to the glory days of the past for Ratchet and Clank, at least in metascore. I honestly thought it wouldn't get above 85. I guess there are still a lot of reviews to roll in so things could change, but 86 is a great result for now.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

UPDATE TO SCORING (starting May): So there will be a slight change in how the metascore is calculated for multiplatform games. For March and April it used to be simply the average of all version metascores, but starting with May it will be a proportionally weighed average depending on the number of reviews.

To illustrate the changes, I'll use Dying Light: The Following as an example.

  • Dying Light: The Following, PC, 79 metascore, 32 reviews
  • Dying Light: The Following, PS4, 78 metascore, 23 reviews
  • Dying Light: The Following, Xbox One, 86 metascore, 7 reviews
With the simple method of taking the average it would be (79+78+86)/3 = 81
In this case the number of reviews on each platform does not matter.

-

With the proportionally weighted average it would be (79*32+78*23+86*7)/(32+23+7) ~ 79.4 ~ 79
If someone did not follow the math, it is simply first multiplying the metascore by the number of reviews on each platform and adding them together. Then dividing by the total number of reviews on all platforms. This method places less weight on the outlier version that had significantly less reviews.

-

In most cases this will not make much of a difference, but occasionally it might drag the score closer to the version with the most reviews. However the difference between these two methods would mostly be either no differnce or a difference of 1 point, with already 2 point difference as above being less common.
This method will be able to more accurately represent the average opinion across all critics.


Cerebralbore101 said:

King's Quest Chapter 3 (PC Version): 67

King's Quest Chapter 3 (Console Versions): 63

I would appreaciate if I could get an average prediction (one number)? (The way it still works for April for multplatform games, is that all version that have a metascore will simply have the average of the metascores taken)



Uncharted 4: 94
Doom: 88
Mirror's Edge: 87



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

PEEPer0nni said:
Dark Souls III - 88
Ratchet & Clank - 84

Just reminding that there should be at least 3 predictions for April, and you can still predict Star Fox Zero, or Kings Quest Chapter 3.

hamo0odi90 said:
April
Ratchet and Clank: 85
Dark Souls 3 : 90

Same as above, just reminding that there should be at least 3 predictions for April, and you can still predict Star Fox Zero, or Kings Quest Chapter 3.

Both of you would have quite good points, but I will only put you on the leaderboard, once you have 3 predictions.