Trhawk said:
First month NPDs of new IPs published by Sony and Microsoft that don't have multiplayer:
Uncharted: Drakes Fortune - 117k
Infamous - 175k
Heavy Rain - 219k
Alan Wake - 145k
The Order 1886 - 200k
Until Dawn - 90k
I tried to keep within the Action adventure/adventure Genre. Note -Infamous is open world, the rest are linear.
First party new IPs that have only a small element of multi player(mainly coop):
Two Human - 169k
Beyond Two Souls - 120k
Sunset Overdrive - 110k
It's hard to know exactly what Microsoft expects, but the above should give a baseline on what to expect. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING FOR QUANTUM BREAK WILL BE WORD OF MOUTH, AND REVIEWS!! Look above, The Order 1886 is one of the highest sellers here, but it completely flamed out (selling only 150k over the next 10 months), and the prospects for a sequal are slim to none. Meanwhile, the lowest seller here, Until Dawn, came out of August with amazing word of mouth, its sales were excelent post launch (240k in 4 months), and chances for a sequal are high.
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Thanks for this. I think it's also worth noting that Sunset Overdrive got good reception, but unforunately, that didn't help it on the long run. The game was also bundled with a nice looking white XB1. Another thing to to consider is that the 360 and XB1 userbases have different tastes. The 360's userbase was less skewed towards the US and Microsoft put a lot of effort into diversifying the 360's library early on (e.g. Fable series, Tales of Versperia, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey). In contrast, the XB1's userbase is highly skewed towards the US and the console's library is a lot less diverse compared to its predecessor's.
That said, I agree that the most important thing for Quantum Break is word of mouth and reviews. Looking back at Sunset Overdrive's sales performance, QB can't just have good reception, it needs to have great reception.