Also, if they keep their online multiplayer free and get the bigger mainstream multiplats (CoD, FIFA, and the like) they have a chance to get those people annoyed by the PS+/Xbox live fees but didn't buy Nintendo due to lack of multplats.

There we go with these crazy dreams of unrealistically high sales.

Ya because Nintendo's network is totally up to par with psn and they didn't have to hire EA to get have they do have.

Can we wait to see what the nx is first?

So really low sales then? Because the amount of people unhappy with PS4 or Xbox will be miniscule.

The 3DS has sold around 60m and the WiiU will reach 13m soon. Even if we assume every WiiU owner also has a 3DS, and we still have an userbase closing to around 50m people with at least one Nintendo device. If the NX is more successful and manages to solve the problems of both the 3DS and the WiiU, we can aim for a number around 60-80m, even with the PS4 reaching the top of its popularity.

I think the NX home console can get a decent level of power, but does not need to surpass the PS4 by much (make it two WiiUs ducktaped together). Considering Sony is winning money hand over fist, they will want to keep the PS4 around as long as possible, and that means PS4-levels of power will be the standard for a long time. If the NX surpasses that power and it's easy to develop for, they won't need more power until the PS5, and I don't see that console coming to the market until 2020 (or if VR catches on and Sony needs more power inmediately).

Either scenario is a bust without games (1st party and some 3rd party) that appeal to a broader audience if you're talking about NX actually trying to compete with the PS4 for market share. If they do what they did with the wii u, only nintendo fans will buy it.

For once, I agree with you...to an extent.  Nintendo will need some sort of solid 3rd party support to create a library in terms of quality AND quantity to make people feel like it is a viable choice for their primary platform.  Ninty can make good games no doubt, but the amount of games offered by both MS and Sony eclipses what the WiiU has to offer.

However as you said, it cannot be a triplet.  It has to be unique enough to offer an experience that the other two cannot, but at the same time not alienate 3rd party support.  It is a difficult ground to land on, but it can be done.

Another thing it cannot do is what the Wii did, which is focus on the casual market.  These guys have moved to mobile, and I do not see them coming back.  The only thing this would do is create a deterrent to core gamers, who ultimately make up the majority of the console market.

So can it be done?  Yes.  Will it be easy?  No.  Will Nintendo do what it takes to get the job done?  Only time will tell.

I will say this though, while I feel Nintendo can become more successful than the X1, maybe even match 360/PS3 sales, I don't see the NX going toe to toe with the PS4.  That said, it does not have to in order to be a commercial success and expand the fanbase to a healthy level.  All we can do is wait and see how it pans out.

Will just have to wait and see what the NX actually is first :p