interesting thoughts guys

WiiFit has an attach rate of about 30% in Japan. 1.7M Wiifit vs 5.6M Wii

Assuming Wii sales end around 40Million this year, they would need a 25% attach rate worldwide to reach 10 million this year. WiiFit should reach 10 million this Christmas, or January at the latest.

Wii fit doesn't have chance at outselling Smash Brothers.

I have to go with Smash Brothers.

Mario Kart Wii, it's a party game that has a proven track record.

your personal preferences do not determine what the masses will buy

i'll buy an argument of 'wii fit is the underdog to outsell smash bros' but to say it "doesn't have a chance" is way too absolute

wii fit can and will outsell smash bros by a few million at the very least

look at japan: 35k wii fit last week to 50k wiis

and wii fit only lost by 4k to smash bros when wii fit is in 16th week and smash bros is in 7th week

and of course, i believe wii fit will be larger in US than in Japan

All 3 will make 10 million and I would like to add SMG to that list.

Wii Fit might be able to do it this year! It will pass SMG when released in all territories easily.
Smash is catching up with Wii Fit already in Japan. Soon after that it will catch up with SMG and sell 10 million in the first half of next year. SMG will be at 10 million too that time.
Mario Kart Wii will track similar sales and reach the 10 millions Christmas 2009.

If it has to be one of those 3, then I would probably say Smash followed by Fit and Kart close together, though Kart will eventually sell more, and has the best shot at 15 mil.

The other game that could make it (home consoles) is GTA4 if combined, though it certainly won't manage it seperately.... so the best chance at 10 million on a specific console is GT5, but it's a slim chance.

Not sure about CoD4 combined, that seems to be still selling well.

smash is not catching up with wii fit

it is 600k behind and only selling 5k/week more in its 7th week than wii fit is in its 16th week...

in fact, it's never been more than 5k ahead of wii fit since its 4th week when it was only 22k ahead

smash will NEVER catch wii fit in japan...it'll only fall further and further behind as wii fit will have MUCH better legs (already does)

it is only some 200K behind Fit in japan according to vgchartz.

 I love it when people severely underestimate the HD consoles.

GTA4 should make 10 million on the 360 if it has the support of Europe, but combined sales should at least be new bounds for the series.