I think Nintendo can get away with a mid-cycle console/platform release under the condition that they update the NX hardware once every 3 or so years and make it mandatory that all software is compatible (bare minimum) with the gen before it to ensure that all NX owners have at least six years of software support before having to upgrade. I think they can get away with that (at least with this upcoming gen) because we'll probably be seeing a lot of cross-gen games when the PS5/xbox2 come out anyway.

I think you might be right, that´s something really clever, but would people upgrade every three years? That´s the real question here. I know I would if the hardware was always cheap, like the wii was, but if it was 350€ like the wii u every three years then don´t count me in.

Anyway, there is some risk when you release your platform mid-cycle, but I´m sure they are aware of it or they will fail again, harder this time.

They must be onto something really unique if they are so confident with the NX platform.

No.  I assume most people in this scenario I came up with would upgrade every six or so years.  Like, if the NX came out this year, I wouldn't expect most of those that purchased it to buy another NX until 2022 or so when compatibility for the 1st version of the NX with new games would no longer be mandatory.  It's also a reason why I think the NX console should be noticably stronger than the PS4 and the handheld be as strong as they can make it for a decent price point in my scenario; so that games made in 2021 for the PS5 can still run adequately on a gen1 NX.  Essentially, I just think this setting would eliminate hardware generations and allow Nintendo to just focus on games.

If it's their version of a tablet, then I think it has serious chances of success.

Hmmmmm... the Wii U is failing hard... how can we turn this around?

Let's replace our fairly successful DS line with a portable Wii U! And let people buy the same games over again!

Brilliant!

And you know how the Gamepad didn't sell the system? Now, let's let people pay more for an extra controller they don't like!

Brillianter!




As for Nintendo needing to protect their reputation...

1) Only 10 million people bought the Wii U. Most of those were Nintendo fans who were either simply happy they got their Smash, Mario, and Mario Kart, or fans so devoted to Nintendo that they'll buy the next one no matter what.

2) Assuming a 2016 holiday launch, Nintendo supported the console for 4 years. Nintendo usually supports their systems for 5. So, people are acting like Nintendo's pulling a Dreamcast, but it's just a slightly shortened cycle.

3) Are consumers really going to be that upset? The people who buy a slightly modified iPhone each year? The people who bought XBox One at launch despite the 360 having a 33% failure rate at launch? The people who support companies who lock DLC on disc? The people who buy a game that's broken at launch, and preorder the next game in the series? The people who buy season passes before they know what the content included will be?

Yeah. Consumers have a way shorter memory than you seem to think. If the NX looks cool, they'll buy it.

I don´t know if I´m understanding you then.

So why would it be a good idea if they release a new console every three years if people wouldn´t buy them at that pace? Would it be sustainable? I mean, what if 10 million NX are sold from the first year but when the "second" NX is released only 5 million buy it... I don´t know, I guess the main issue here is the price, if it´s cheap and it´s a big upgrade I think most people would buy it. 

Also, what do you think, if they upgrade the console (and handheld as well?) every three years, would they have a re-design every single time? or would it be the same console and handheld but with better specs? I find it very interesting, because on the one hand, it would be nice to have a redesign every three years, but on the other hand I bet they are trying to unify Nintendo as a brand, and they might be looking to have a design that is easily recognizable as a Nintendo product.

What I´m certain about is what you mention about Nintendo focusing on games. If they can release their hardware easy and fast, they could focus on games and that would be great for gamers.

NX will be successful most likely no matter what its specs are if it is truly a cross-platform system. too many fans of Nintendo games and handhelds

but they should go either with it: either an extremely competitive spec system with possibily better capabilities than the PS4/Xone.  OR a system at similar or slightly below specs but that is considerably cheaper

the portable nx will be as powerful as the ps4, have haptic feedback and hologram 3D. it will cost $199 and sold at a decent profit.

the console nx will have be twice as powerful as the ps4, all games will be a minimum of 1080p and 60fps while some will support 4k. all 3rd party games will be present except they'll cost $50 instead of $60, all dlc will be free and online gaming will be free and more stable than any other network available. many publishers will choose to release on nintendo first for 6 months just to apologize for past indiscretions. it will cost $249, come with 2 gamepads, a pro controller, a wiimote, and their new VR headset sold at cost.

Yes.. just yes.. :)

The only thing we know about NX is:

- Totally different from Wii and WiiU

- A brand new concept

- For the hardcore gamer

- A home console*

*some would say that this is not confirmed.. but for me it is.. Iwata said "hardcore platform" Reggie called NX a home console 2 days after.. and new ceo that 3ds will not be replaced anytime soon.

To make a "realistic" NX tread.. people should acount for this.. And also how it will get 3. party (becourse that is 100% part of NX iddea/strategy) And most important.. What new inovation it will have..

I agree that backwards compatibility is possible even through an x86 architecture. But I don't think porting from x86 to PPC is what hurt 3rd parties. I'm glad to see people agree that expensive power is not an option.

It's true that Nintendo has made no new announcements for wii u in so long that it leaves one to think they abandoned it. Really that's an excellent point. It does indicate they are moving on. I'm just not convinced that this is a wise move. I'm hoping that the new unnanounced games will be scalable to work on Wii U and Nintendo is saving it as a surprise. However, Microsoft abandoning after 4 years is a different scenario than this because the 360 came one year before the ps2 successor. Nintendo is not abandoning Wii U one year before the ps4 successor so I don't think it's a fair comparison. 

Small profits are not interesting to any company but high risks are even less interesting to Nintendo. They are going after the larger market if they produce a powerful tablet handheld. Maybe they won't revise the home console after all. If Wii U can suddenly support the NX as a second screen controller then that's good enough. Maybe they are investing in a more lucrative idea that I can't even conceive but this is the closest thing I can actually come up with that may bring success.

Can you propose a profitable scenario for the home console that outpaces this one?