The only way I can see the NX succeeding is this

[snyps]

Hiku said:

Using Powerpc again instead of x86 will make porting PS4 games to NX more of a hassle. And since NX will be starting at a 0 userbase, while PS4 will probably be around 50m at least, and Xbox somewhere around 30m, the last thing they want is to take away another incentive for third party support while struggling to make the NX take off during it's initial launch year.

As much as I personally wish it would have backwards compatbility (I have a Mario Kart 8 but not a WiiU), they'd better find a way to do it with x86, like Microsoft did.

There's no point in being significantly more powerful than PS4 in the middle of this generation though, I agree with you on that. That would only drive up the price of the console, while every developer will still make games based on PS4's specs.

As for abandoning WiiU, they've done it since some time in 2014. At least when it comes to new titles. As of now, the last time they announced any new project of quality that began since early 2014, was E3 2014.
The deal for Pokken was agreed upon in early 2013, and Namco usually take around a year to port their games to console. Zelda TP HD had begun development in early 2014 as well.

Since then, all they've announced or released is Amiibo Festival, and Mario Tennis. Every other game coming out in 2016 has been delayed from 2015.
Another year of games like Amiibo Festival and Matrio Tennis isn't going to do anything to help save face.
Microsoft walked away from Xbox after 4 years, and it didn't affect their success with 360.

 

Also please allow me to extrapolate the other part of NX. This november Nintendo releases the NX home entertainment system that boasts a Wii U library, support for two touch-screen controllers simultaneously, and boosted hardware that improve the user experience all around. Will it succeed? Only the Nintendo faithful will buy it because PS4 has already stolen the show. On the positive side; it's not costly, it invites inroads, and it keeps Nintendo's reputation.

I came up with this theory because i can not rationalize an alternate path that leads to a greater potential for success. It will be very exciting to see NX. My imagination is brimming with possibilities each day as I anticipate it. I would be very pleased with a portable Wii U that acted as a second controller on my home console. Pleased because I can continue to build my Wii U game library and also because of the joy it will bring to a wider audience. 

If by Nintendo faithful, you're refering to the ones who bought WiiU, and not people like me, who wanted to buy a WiiU but didn't, then I don't think Nintendo are interested in that. Whether WiiU was profitable for them or not at the end of the day (after taking into consideration the cost of R&D, etc), I don't think they're interested in making the smallest amount of profits with their console when they can invest their money into much more lucrative things.

 

I agree that backwards compatibility is possible even through an x86 architecture. But I don't think porting from x86 to PPC is what hurt 3rd parties. I'm glad to see people agree that expensive power is not an option.

It's true that Nintendo has made no new announcements for wii u in so long that it leaves one to think they abandoned it. Really that's an excellent point. It does indicate they are moving on. I'm just not convinced that this is a wise move. I'm hoping that the new unnanounced games will be scalable to work on Wii U and Nintendo is saving it as a surprise. However, Microsoft abandoning after 4 years is a different scenario than this because the 360 came one year before the ps2 successor. Nintendo is not abandoning Wii U one year before the ps4 successor so I don't think it's a fair comparison. 

Small profits are not interesting to any company but high risks are even less interesting to Nintendo. They are going after the larger market if they produce a powerful tablet handheld. Maybe they won't revise the home console after all. If Wii U can suddenly support the NX as a second screen controller then that's good enough. Maybe they are investing in a more lucrative idea that I can't even conceive but this is the closest thing I can actually come up with that may bring success.

 

Can you propose a profitable scenario for the home console that outpaces this one?