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Forums - Politics - Climate Change: What's your take?

thranx said:

Like i said in 20 years the same will be said of global warming.

A prediction based on nothing.

thranx said:

Have you not noticed that it has already begun. With the new term being climate change.

The term "climate change" is not at all new. Here it is being used as far back as 1953:

https://books.google.com/books?id=5DPwAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA142&lpg=PA142&dq=%22Solar+Variation+as+AN+Explanation+of+Climate+Change%22&source=bl&ots=NGFCjdxs5O&sig=LHOCBCNho7ihqmABx48PHyw9i0c&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiko7nNs8PKAhUPymMKHfztDx4Q6AEILDAD#v=onepage&q=%22Solar%20Variation%20as%20AN%20Explanation%20of%20Climate%20Change%22&f=false

You can buy the pamphlet too:

http://www.abebooks.co.uk/SOLAR-VARIATION-EXPLANATION-CLIMATE-CHANGE-Bell/5861489741/bd

http://www.amazon.com/SOLAR-VARIATION-EXPLANATION-CLIMATE-CHANGE/dp/B00KJ1A172

thranx said:

If the science behind global warming/climate change is so sound why are the predictions so off? If they know what they are talking about, if the science is true, why can they not accuratly predict global temperature trends?

You're awfully vague: what predictions are you referring to and by whom?



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0815user said:

burn less coal/oil and plant more trees and we're good in about 20 years. low oil price is a sign for a less oil based future economy which is good. also, stop wasting plastic products because most of them tend to end up in the ocean.

As has already been explained, low oil prices are great for the continued use of such fuel souces, but planting more trees aint going to do shit with such rampant logging in the tropical rainforests. I agree with wasting plastics in general, but a quick way to improve the situation would be to deregulate parts of the incineration and reprossessing parts of recycling. Part of the big reason we don't do more recycling is due to regulation that means you can't reprosses (and re-make) plastics that are mixed food and non food sourced plastics, plus ALL food plastic packaging has to be virgin plastic, I.E. can't be an recycled plastic, and just think of the kinda proportion of uses for plastic that food plastic has? On a brighter note, there are a lot of promising enterprises in the earliest stages of development in regards to cleaning up the ocean plasic, so things might improve quite a bit over the next dacade in regards to this, especially if oil prices increase in the future, making recycled plastic more economical.

0815user said:
thranx said:

 


A low price in oil ensures that oil and coal will remain our ources for energy. the only hope for renewable energy is a high oil price. that makes renewable nergy not so expensive in comparison to oil. So if you want less oil and coal burned you should hope for a high price. I wouldn't count on that as we are continually increasing the amount of viable oil for drilling through new technology. With China and India only growing I wouldn't count on the world using less fossil fuels any time soon. There is no benifit to China or India trying to cut emissions, nor should they be forced too by the world and the rest of the world doesnt have the  uscle to enforce it any ways. Slowing down consumption in the western world may help, but as China and India gain ground any cutbacks from the west are sure to be matched or surpassed by increases in just china and india

oh, i can see the benefits.

It depends on if the economic negatives outweigh the economic possitives.



sethnintendo said:

Sure all forms of mining can cause pollution or potentially earthquakes.  Probably the worst for water pollution would be mountain top removal.  I believe the jury is still out on what kind of damage fracking really causes.  Sure in some instances it probably affects very little.  However, I'm sure in other areas they have suffered from leaching chemicals and other problems. 

GMO crops destroy biodiversity because the company that is selling the crop only sells one type of seed.  Farmers used to save their best seeds but now companies like Monsanto would rather sell you their seed every year.   This is what happens when you industrialize farming though.  We only grow one type of banana even though there used to be several types of bananas.  There is great concern of tree fungus that could take out the entire banana crop ("In the 1950s, Panama disease, a wilt caused by the fungus Fusarium oxysporum, wiped out vast tracts of ‘Gros Michel’ plantations in South America and Africa, but the cultivar survived in Thailand.  By 1960, the major importers of Gros Michel bananas were nearly bankrupt, and had waited to deal with the financial and environmental crisis. The Cavendish was cultivated so consumers would still be able to obtain bananas.") https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana

If you have different types of bananas then at least one type would not be susceptible to the fungus.  There is danger in only growing one type of apple, banana, corn, etc...  Monsanto has over 90% market share of corn right now in USA.  If there was a bug (that adapted to round up), fungus, parasite, etc that started going after their corn then most the corn crop could be wiped out.  I also don't believe in over use of pesticides and don't believe in the overall increased yields of GMOs because over time your soil turns to crap if you constantly use pesticides. 

The world is starting to wake up to GMOs.  Japan and Europe banned a huge shipment of wheat because they don't want any GMOs ( http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/01/business/global/japan-and-south-korea-bar-us-wheat-imports.html?_r=0 ).  "Although none of the wheat, developed by Monsanto Company, was found in any grain shipments — and the Department of Agriculture said there would be no health risk if any was shipped — governments in Asia and Europe acted quickly to limit their risk."  So the shipment supposedly didn't even have Monsanto GMO wheat but they decided to limit all risks.  Soon U.S. farmers might not have that much of a market to sell to because the rest of the world doesn't want our crops.  Even farmers that aren't growing GMOs suffer due to other countries thinking that the shipment could still be contaminated with GMOs.

Factory farms have cattle, chickens, pigs etc in close spaces or stuck standing up all day long.  Would you rather eat something that has been standing around doing nothing all day pumped full of antibiotics and eating food that really isn't in their diet (cows are supposed to eat grass not corn)?  You know there is a reason why deer, buffalo or any other game meat taste better than factory farmed animals?  Because they actually move around and eat what they are supposed to eat.  Sure the companies want to save space and drive down costs.  However, animals that are allowed to graze in a field will always produce better meat than ones stuffed into a pin and forced fed questionable food.



There was actually a really good study posted earlier last year that looked at the harms the oldest US wells have caused and it was concluded that the technology is fairly safe, but it was quite a while ago no, and I can no longer find it to check, but I'm sure that there are a lot of studies taking place right now looking into it, so I can't imagine it being too long till we have a final answere. Personally I'm in favour of fracking, it's a fantastic way to get cheap fuel, and I think it's unlikely we're ever going to stop needing Oil and Gass due to the other products they can make.

Ok, so is it biodiversity in general, or just for crop production? As I fail to see how only having one type of each crop that we produce is going to destroy biodiversity in the untamed lands. And yes I am aware about the situation with the banana's, but couldn't genetic modification not save the banana by making the cavendish banana immune to the new form of the fungus that's currently starting to kill banana grows? Also for this couldn't you just have a constant chain of new varients on the say, apple genome, if you're concerned with disease causing mass crop failure?

No, our current use of pesticides is woefully inneficient, but this comes from poorly educated farmers who were told to use these chemicals as they improve yeilds, but the problem with this is that the farmers have no knowladge of soil science (i.e. how chemicals in soils move and interact), and neither do they often know the composition of their own soil, in terms of chemicals, so what's happening is that farmers aren't using anywhere near the right combination of techniques to keep their land healthy, and it's almost always leading to overuse of the pesticides and all the other stuff they put on crops.

Oh of course I love to eat higher quality of meat, but that doesn't mean that factory farms are a bad thing (certainly, if we can learn to do prawn farming better then we may be able to improve the situation being caused by overfishing at the moment, as learning to farm a certain type of sea creature (are prawns fish?) should lead to being able to farm others), as long as people have the choice to choose, and it is indicated which is which, then I really don't see the problem, as some people can't afford non farmed meat, or if they can it's not as often as they would like to eat meat, so surely factory farms still have a place?



SpokenTruth said:
Denial will damn us all.

You've now posted this same shit post 6 times now, either try and counter the points you clearly dissagree with, or sincerely fuck off as those 5 words are adding nothing to this thread but spam. 



SpokenTruth said:
Groundking said:
SpokenTruth said:
Denial will damn us all.

You've now posted this same shit post 6 times now, either try and counter the points you clearly dissagree with, or sincerely fuck off as those 5 words are adding nothing to this thread but spam. 

It actually says plenty.  Because no matter how much actual science and evidence gets posted, deniers do not give a damn.  They'd rather accept some global conspiracy of thousands of scientists trying to dupe people into carbon credits and stifling Capitalism rather than think for a moment and realize we are jeopardizing the future of the only planet we have.

So again, denial will damn us all.  Because nothing else I say will ever sway those who deny it anyway. 



I'm not really seing any deniers in here, only sceptics, but sceptics are sceptics for a reason, and that is is that the evidence that the earth warming is even a problem is simply too poor for them to accept it, so if you want to sway them then start providing evidence based facts, backed with sources with transparent methodologies, and sound maths and resoning, and chances are they'll accept this. 





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Shadow1980 said:
Locknuts said:

I'm not sure we disagree with each other. Yes, there is always wiggle room, so for the sake of the research shouldn't the people presenting that research be as unbiased as possible? Otherwise the opposing political factions will use ad hominem attacks to discredit the people presenting the facts, causing lay persons (myself included) to disregard their data, whether or not it is useful. This in turn delays action on climate change.

Don't get me wrong, everybody is human and has their own sets of beliefs, but surely you would want to give your detractors as little ammunition as possible but using the most neutral people you can find.

What I'm saying is that laymen debating the very validity of the science itself, with some of the detractors outright claiming "CONSPIRACY!", is pointless and unproductive. It's not much different than us debating whether plate tectonics is real or just a conspiracy to hide the "fact" that the Earth is hollow. Politics and money should never be an excuse to reject science. Just because those dirty hippies at Greenpeace are proclaiming the end of the world doesn't mean the scientists are full of shit. Just because you don't like the Big Bad Gubmint doesn't mean the scientists are lying to us. Just because you might lose some short-term profits doesn't mean you should work to sow doubt about the science. Lumping in the scientists with the non-scientist activists is counterproductive and intellectually dishonest.

What I'm saying is that we should take the scientists at their word. The world is warming, we are the cause, and there is a chance, however slight, that the warming could be sufficient over the next century to have detrimental effects well beyond the costs to solve the problem. Millions of people displaced by rising seas, crop disruptions, increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events, ocean acidification, loss of biodiversity, spread of tropical diseases, disruption of ocean currents, loss of mountain glaciers. These problems are most likely solvable, and global warming isn't going to cause the end of civilization itself (unless we find a way to burn every bit of recoverable oil and coal in the Earth's crust), but it would be prohibitively expensive and millions would still suffer in even middle-of-the-road scenarios. The warmer it gets, the greater potential for worse scenarios and thus greater cost to adapt. It's not alarmism. It's not a plot to establish totalitarian communism. It's real science.

What I am saying is that we can solve the problem with technology we already have, and we don't necessarily have to use solutions frequently suggested by liberals. We could offer positive incentives or lend money to utilities to get them to invest more in and gradually change to nuclear, wind, solar, etc. I personally think that liberals and environmentalists bear at least some of the blame themselves for their knee-jerk rejection of nuclear power, which the data clearly shows is a statistically far safer form of power generation than coal or natural gas. Think of solving the problem as more like insurance. Yeah, you might have less money in your pockets each month just to buy something you might not ever need, but you get it anyway just in case shit happens. You may go your whole life without ever crashing your car of having a house fire or a catastrophic illness, but in the worst-case scenario you'll want that insurance. And just like how some insurance companies offer partial refunds for being a good driver, getting off of fossil fuels for electricity generation and automotive fuels would have benefits beyond preventing potential harm in the future. Even ignoring global warming, fossil fuels kill hundreds of thousands each year and cost humanity many millions of dollars just from the direct effects of pollution.

I don't get why people would paint the rejection of nuclear fission power as such an irrational move.

The tech generates wastes that have to be safely secured for thousends of years (more like forgotten and leaking into our water supplies in a few hundred years) and those costs aren't factored into it's energy costs lowballing them in comparison to other tech. Statistics also mean very little when a "once in 2 million years" event of a meltdown has happened twice in 50 years of commercial use and render large fertile areas unuseable for decades. Additionally it's also a nice target for terror or during all-out-warfare due to the severe consequences of a meltdown.

From my perspective it looks like a dead-end road and the money is much better spent on research of fusion and solar power aswell as energy storage.





http://saskpowerccs.com/ccs-projects/boundary-dam-carbon-capture-project/

Just wanted to share this project.

For information. this facility captured 400 000 T of co2 last year but was up only 45% of the time.



Groundking said:

all the data shows that a temperature increase PRECEEDS an increase in CO2, I'm NOT saying that the increase in temperature causes the increase in CO2, I'm simply stating that temp increases preceed CO2 increases. There is nothing wrong in saying that.

Callion et al. 2003 (This is the first study showing this, there has been plenty since.

Are you saying there's never an instance of temperature increases lagging CO2 increases? In other words, never an instance of CO2 increasing first and then temperatures going up?



KLAMarine said:
Groundking said:

all the data shows that a temperature increase PRECEEDS an increase in CO2, I'm NOT saying that the increase in temperature causes the increase in CO2, I'm simply stating that temp increases preceed CO2 increases. There is nothing wrong in saying that.

Callion et al. 2003 (This is the first study showing this, there has been plenty since.

Are you saying there's never an instance of temperature increases lagging CO2 increases? In other words, never an instance of CO2 increasing first and then temperatures going up?

In our ice core data CO2 concentration always follows the temperature increase, but as this graph shows this only goes back a few hundred thousend years and data prior to that is far more vague.

There are several instances in earth history in which it's presumed that dramatically rising or sinking CO2 levels had a big influence on earths climate, but in our current ice-house climate and within that 200ppm-300ppm window of the last few 100k years CO2 has acted as more of an amplifier for other factors (gulf stream activity, solar activity/distance) to create several stable inter-glacial periods.



Lafiel said:
KLAMarine said:
Groundking said:

all the data shows that a temperature increase PRECEEDS an increase in CO2, I'm NOT saying that the increase in temperature causes the increase in CO2, I'm simply stating that temp increases preceed CO2 increases. There is nothing wrong in saying that.

Callion et al. 2003 (This is the first study showing this, there has been plenty since.

Are you saying there's never an instance of temperature increases lagging CO2 increases? In other words, never an instance of CO2 increasing first and then temperatures going up?

In our ice core data CO2 concentration always follows the temperature increase, but as this graph shows this only goes back a few hundred thousend years and data prior to that is far more vague.

There are several instances in earth history in which it's presumed that dramatically rising or sinking CO2 levels had a big influence on earths climate, but in our current ice-house climate and within that 200ppm-300ppm window of the last few 100k years CO2 has acted as more of an amplifier for other factors (gulf stream activity, solar activity/distance) to create several stable inter-glacial periods.

I know of a video that addresses this issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ3PzYU1N7A

 

By the way, I highly HIGHLY recommend potholer54's youtube channel. Highly educational and entertaining channel.