The recently made sales predictions for the PS4 for the year 2016 got me thinking. Quite a few people expect 20m+ because the PS4 will be getting so many games this year. But what would we expect in an opposite scenario? I know what you are thinking now, but no, this is not a Wii U troll thread.

Hypothetically speaking, around the time of New Year's Eve we are compiling top 10 lists of most anticipated games for all consoles. Anticipated means that we can't put just any game on the lists, but only those which a number of people actually look forward to. Now for the interesting part: It turns out that we can't fill the list for one of the consoles because we only have 5-8 games that qualify by our metrics. Mind you, this does not mean that the system in question won't see game announcements during the year, but at this point in time we don't know if and how much is left to come. But logically speaking, there won't be many more games announced because the software support is already barren, maybe there won't even be any additional games.

Based on the above scenario, how many units would we expect such a console to sell for the year and how would we react to the actual sales at the end of the year?

Example:

1) Less than 2m. Not surprised that it did so bad.
2) 2-3m. Okay for what it is.
3) 4-5m. Already good considering the dire circumstances.
4) 6-7m. Impressive for such a thin lineup of worthwhile games.
5) 8m+. Mindboggingly stupid sales. I'll eat my dirty socks if this happens.

Do you agree with these ranges or would your thresholds be higher/lower?

It doesn't really work that way, though.

The thing is, games like CoD, Battlefield, FIFA, and Madden at the top probably count for more than all the rest of the release schedule combined.

Well, those count towards a top 10 of anticipated games, but if those were the only games coming out for the console that people are actually excited about, how would that affect their sales?

My point is that reality does not really work like the example in the OP.  Interest does not increase exponentially.  For many people, a top 4 or 5 might make up the large part of their reason for buying a new console.  The further down the list, the less meaningful the entries become.  A substantial number of consumers might never buy many more than ten games, total.