If at the start of the year we couldn't fill a top 10 list of most anticipated games for a console, how much would we expect said system to sell for the year?

[pokoko]

Hiku said:

pokoko said:
It doesn't really work that way, though.

The thing is, games like CoD, Battlefield, FIFA, and Madden at the top probably count for more than all the rest of the release schedule combined.

Well I don't think it's quite that simple for the most part.
One or two games is not neccesarily enough to motivate most people into getting a new console. You also look at what else is available.
But for some people, one COD/Madden/FIFA game may be enough. Though for fanatics of those games, one can assume that many of them already bought the console, as we are already on the third iterations of COD/FIFA/Madden, etc.

My point is that reality does not really work like the example in the OP.  Interest does not increase exponentially.  For many people, a top 4 or 5 might make up the large part of their reason for buying a new console.  The further down the list, the less meaningful the entries become.  A substantial number of consumers might never buy many more than ten games, total.