This thread is sort of a response to people who think Nintendo games would sell exponentially more if Nintendo became a 3rd party developer. I know to a certain extent install base is important, for example a game can't sell 15 million if it's on an install base if 10 million but at a certain point will a games stop being reliant on install base as long as it's large enough to support solid sales? Here are a bunch of examples of Nintendo who's sales remained relatively stagnant regardless of install base.

3D Mario, this series seems to have a ceiling of about 12 million. Mario 64, Mario Galaxy, Mario 64 DS, Mario 3D Land have all sold or tracking towards selling roughly 12 million, this is on devices with install bases ranging from 33 million to 154 million.

Kirby, with the exception of the first Kirby title on Gameboy, no title has sold over 3 million with most mainline entries selling around 2 million, give or take a few hundred thousand.

Metroid, another series with pretty consistent sales, the majority of titles sell around 1.5 million give or take with only 2 entries having sold over 2 million.

Animal Crossing, the DS entry of this series sold 11.74 million, the 3DS entry was at 9.44 million as of its last update and still growing, this is on a device that will go on to sell less than half of DS.

Zelda, Ocarina of Time sold more than the original and more than Twilight Princess despite being on a console with 1/3-1/2 the install base. Also every mainline title with the exception of those 3 titles has sold in the 3-5 million range on consoles ranging from 22-154 million.

Pokemon, the last 4 generations have sold similar numbers with all 3 remakes having sold similar numbers despite being on devices with huge differences in install base.

There are a few exceptions like Mario Kart & 2D Mario that seem to keep selling as long as the hardware they are on keeps growing but for the majority of Nintendo games, it seems as though install base is a minor issue.

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Yes
Best case Call of Duty on wii u

Basically every gamer friend I have has a handful of Wii U games they want, but aren't willing to spring for the system. I mean, it's every person I talk to--they would ALL love to play the latest Mario or Zelda, but they're just not interested enough to actually buy the system just for those games. Not even close.

Yeah, install base matters. Wii games didn't sell that much more because it was an artificially inflated install base consisting of people who wanted nothing but Wii Sports and the like. With an install base of 150 million actual gamers, things would be different. This has gone back for several generations.

Well yeah. Just look at Wii and Wii U software sales.

For 3DS Pokemon, it's declined over the DS versions. The difference is astounding tbh.

For single player games, not at all. Though any major multiplayer game like Halo or COD, yes install base is very important.

Edit: Nvm. I misread this. I thought you were implying the amount of people playing a game. Yes, it does matter. But even with a decent install base, 3rd part Wii U games for the most part selling next to nothing.

Really depends, it's not would be at all same if you were selling Mario game on NIntendo platform with user base of 100m and on PS/XB platforms with that user base.

Exactly this.

It is important but not vital.

This, Bascially most poeple I know and myself included all would love to play around 2-4 Wii U games but never will as it means forking out another £250 for a console. If Nintendo could match the other consoles third party support WII U could potentially be up to an install base somewhat closer to the PS4 imo and thats something the NX really needs to aim for.