I apologize in advance at how long this post is! T_T Anyone who just wants the TL;DR version can just stick to the first section, as the Wall-O-Text beneath it is just to add details.
I pretty much think the Xbox One's out of luck with regards to catching up in the global market, be it in overall or even monthly sales, as they're at a pretty solid disadvantage in terms of where their sales are concentrated. (Keep in mind, everything I say is in relation specifically to Microsoft competing with Sony, as I find that overall Microsoft's sales, excluding perhaps swaths of Europe and obviously Asia, are doing fine. =P )
Still! Just because the Xbox One's probably going to remain behind by a solid, likely-perpetually-expanding global gap this generation, doesn't mean they should rest on their laurels or even 'give up.' On the contrary, even if whatever they do doesn't close the gap this generation, it CAN help strengthen their brand and reputation for when the next-gen console (which I will call the Xbox Two) gets released. And here's some stuff they can do to help with that, both during the Xbox One's generation, and during the launch of the Xbox Two!
I will start with a simple list, but because I have been giving the matter a lot of thought over the last two years, there is a veritable wall of text below that breaks down each point. Anyone who would like to address a specific point, I'd appreciate if you at least read the breakdown for the given point before replying, just in case the answer can be found there. :3
1) Maintain exclusive title quality and quantity during the final couple of years of the Xbox One; your 'Greatest Lineup In Xbox History' should be a metric accurately given to its final year, second-final tops. Don't let it peak partway through the generation.
2)Strengthen relationships with developers of all sizes, indie included, regardless of whether they are currently making exclusives for Xbox One.
3) Do NOT have core features (be they game-related or media-related) such as OneGuide only function in one or two markets on launch; try to ensure that every market they release to receives a feature-complete product.
4) Focus on more aggressively expanding their markets when the next generation begins, and especially do not give Sony such a large headstart in so many of its stronghold territories. They will likely still lose the markets, but the point here isn't to win, it's to not lose so badly. =P
5) Have their policies and featureset completely straight and decided, ensure that all their representatives during the pre and post-launch period are THOROUGHLY drilled on them, and above all else do NOT try to avoid the press' hard questions.
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And with that, the breakdowns!
1) Maintain, maintain, maintain. I believe that the final year of the Xbox One should go out on as much of a bang as any other, with varied exclusives, special promotions, etc. Whether this means having more cross-developed titles on the Xbox One that later release on the Xbox Two, or simply having Microsoft stretch their budget a bit to effectively double their development output between both consoles, the LAST thing they should do is let prep work on the Xbox Two cause them to limit attention given to the Xbox One.
The Xbox 360 was partially hindered in its final couple of years by the release of the Kinect, and a resulting shift in much of its exclusive output to Kinect-only titles. I honestly think it's what cemented a good chunk of its association as a 'shooter box,' because during that two, two-and-a-half year period, fully half of the non-Kinect exclusives (and I'm counting third party developed and ported-in-from-PC titles) were shooters or racers. Actually, I believe fully half of them were Forza, Halo and Gears, though memory's a bit foggier on that, if someone wants, I can double check.
When you have people look at the Xbox Two, you want their thought to be 'Well, heck, Microsoft kept delivering on variety with the Xbox One right til the very end! I feel I can depend on them to bring on the variety throughout the generation, and have no problem sinking monies into a console Year One!' I don't really think that was the impression that was had about the Xbox 360 quite as much as it was had with the PS3, which ended on a very strong note. o.o
2) Continue to strengthen relationships with developers and publishers of all sizes, REGARDLESS of whether or not they're going to be making their game Xbox One exclusive.
I had almost forgotten about this, but around May 2013, it came out that Microsoft was, 'as of right now,' keeping the same Xbox Live Arcade restrictions on the Xbox One that the Xbox 360 had, which included 'No Self-Publishing.' At this time, for an independant developer, it seemed that trying to publish your game on the Xbox 360 was more expensive, more time-consuming, and just overall less profitable than working with either Sony or Nintendo, who had been working to streamline their processes to court smaller developers, and who incidentially were allowing self-publishing.
Obviously, this changed, as Microsoft announced a couple of months later (around late July 2013 I think) that they WOULD be allowing self-publishing after all. I leave it up to everyone to decide whether this had always been the plan, or if this was in part due to the June 2013 post-E3 string of reversals and policy changes. Regardless, the late arrival meant that by the time both consoles launched, Sony had the lion's share the early Indie titles, which led to a rather lopsided number of indie titles releasing on PS4 in the first year compared to the Xbox One. And while I know that there's more than a few upturned noses when it comes to indie titles, when we're talking about inevitable First Year droughts, even a regular sprinkling of small games is better than none at all. =P
So, for this generation, Microsoft needs to continue to form strong relationships with as many developers as they can, even if they're just releasing multiplatform titles right now, in order to get ahead of the curve. Make working with the Xbox One platform as much of a pleasure as possible, even in such small ways as having individual Microsoft reps form consistent working relationships with specific developers, to the point where the phone call begins with a cheerful 'Hey Bob!' rather than 'Hello, this is Microsoft representative John speaking, how may I help you, Mister Jones?"
Because when the time comes to start developing early titles for the Xbox Two, having these developers actually LIKE you will make it easier to court them to pitch in on your new platform. And as indie developers grow in size and experience, you're more likely to end up on the inside track that will help you seize something special.
(To be fair, Microsoft might already be doing this as the exact details on how they handle their developer-relations aren't clear to me. If so, kudos to them! =D)
3) This is (imo) extremely important if they want to dip their toes back into the global market; make sure the product you're offering the global market is at least roughly on par with the product you're offering the U.S.
Part of the problem (again, imo) with the Xbox One's initial, much-ridiculed focus on TV was that stuff like OneGuide was really only functional on launch within the U.S.; we here in Canada didn't even get it til months later. Its UK rollout finally began in April 2014 (with 'select users,' so it was in stages,) and I believe regions like Germany and other Tier One markets saw it come even later.
Now, I'm not even going to pretend that the rollout was simple as I believe it involved making arrangements with various cable providers in each market, clearly there was a lot of work to get it together at all. But when such a large initial emphasis was given to how the Xbox One would be 'The All-In-One Entertainment Box,' and core features OF that are non-functional in all but one country upon launch, the product just comes across as incomplete. 'Buy Now, Get Shiny Thing Eventually Probably.' While stuff like Netflix or other video streaming services also vary in availability, they're side stuff, apps to which the console is only a gateway. OneGuide was different; it was an Xbox One-specific thing, and again, was quite proudly displayed as one of the awesome reasons to get an Xbox One. Having such a core function of the console be nonfunctional for months on release is going to impact how the product is viewed, even if it's a function the consumer isn't entirely sure they'd be interested in. =P
So, this time around, they need to make sure that whatever they're offering for the Xbox Two works in a majority of the markets, not just the U.S. Whether this means 'trying harder,' or simply streamlining the featureset so you don't have any REAL BIG things that flat-out don't work outside the U.S., you need to keep the global market from feeling like it's getting the second-rate version of your product. Want to make it an All-In-One box? Make sure it's an All-In-One box almost EVERYWHERE. Otherwise, stick to 'It's A Game Console' from the get-go.
4) Faster global rollout and wider lens! I fully understand that Europe and Asia is Sonyland, and so obviously I don't think Microsoft has a real shot of winning those territories... but much like Sony in the U.S. and U.K. this generation, they don't NEED to win. Just remain competitive. Giving their opponent a head-start measured in months, in regions said opponent already held every other advantage, just guarantees Microsoft will get slaughtered.
Court local developers in these regions more aggressively, carefully measure the demographics and apparent interests of each region (hell, each country) and ensure the Xbox Two marketing and lineup is poised to release with flair, tailored to each region's interests. Become a Jack of All Trades, even if it means being a Master of None. They should fight Sony tooth and nail on ALL aspects, even KNOWING that they (Microsoft) will still probably lose in these regions, because if nothing else they could keep the global margins from getting too wide... heck, if they manage to take back the U.S. and U.K. to any significant degree, the Xbox Two has a chance of matching the PS5! But without handling the wider global market MUCH more effectively on the Xbox Two launch, the console is probably going to be stuck with a fairly distant second (or, if Nintendo pulls their shit together with the NX, even third) place.
Of all the points, obviously this would be the most expensive and most difficult by far, but I also believe that (if done correctly, with willingness to bleed a fair bit of red ink,) it can be the most effective way to make Microsoft truly competitive with a Sony that hasn't fucked up yet.
5) Be on point, be on message, make sure your message makes sense. Whatever your platform's policies, features, etc are, make sure that every single person who has anything to do with the press has been briefed on them so thoroughly, they're mumbling the featureset as they sleep. Coach them to handle cross-examination, make sure they can field questions and react 'on their feet' to unexpected angles raised by the press. Not only were the Xbox one's policies just generally not well received for what they were, it seemed at times like nobody who spoke to the press knew what they were with any real clarity, leading to confusing interviews left and right.
The biggest and most defining moment of that came in the wake of E3 2013, when Microsoft cancelled their post-conference round-table discussion and most, if not all, individual press interviews. Cancelled, mind you, meaning the plans were made for all these things, but Microsoft actively avoided having to face the press. That is a terrible, terrible idea, and it creates a vacuum that will be filled with rumors and falsehoods that might actually be worse than whatever uncomfortable truth you're avoiding.
