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There were a few ways MS could have persuaded me to jump in already. A bundle with 2 physical games included, FH2 and Forza 6 would have been hard to resist at 349, an instant buy at 299.
However the Canadian dollar is worth crap atm, the cheapest xbox one gears bundle is 399, games are 75 to 80 and due to data caps digital game vouchers for large AAA games are simply a no go, especially at the end of the year. For what I'm interested in it would be over $600 after tax.
Plus games are so long nowadays, a third console this gen really needs to bring the exclusives to persuade me to abandon my current back log. Gears and Halo don't do it for me anymore.

Going forward there's one thing that will definitely get me to pick up the 3rd console. A slim model with 4k blu-ray playback. 4k blu-rays should be hitting the market next year. It needs to be build in, I'm not buying another hd-dvd add-on. Yet that won't happen, too expensive, too soon, tv is out.