I'm actually interested in both games, where the lure isn't the open world, but rather what you can do in said world.

I was counting both versions of Zelda in my prediction. But yeah, both games have things going for and against it. Zelda is established and beloved, but having a small install base to sell to, while Horizon is a new IP by a dev whom hasn't been selling gang busters (relativily speaking), but that has a large install base.

Zelda should win in sales pretty handily, unless there is some heavy bundling for Horizon.

Nintendo games simply sell a lot better in proportion to their fanbase. This has pretty much always been the case. Breath of the Wild has the advantage of being pretty much the only major game for Switch's launch. An attach rate of 50% for Breath of the wild seems reasonable, if not pessimistic. So, if the system sells 3 million in its first couple of months, then that's an easy 1-2 million in sales right there. If it takes off like the Wii then it could easily be 3-4 million.

In terms of critical reception, Zelda's likely to win again. When you combine the historic ratings of the Zelda franchise with the extremely positive reception Zelda got at E3, above a 90 seems like a safe bet. Horizon has been getting very good buzz too, but it's less certain in that case. The safe money is on Zelda.

I'm also intersted in both games. Horizon is the only PS4 game I'm interested in that I know comes in 2017 (RDR2 may come, but that's multiplatform and I have a feeling it'll be pushed to 2018). Zelda is a given, I've yet to play a mainline Zelda game that wasn't brilliant.

I think horizon will easily sell more and of course be much more pretty.

But metacritics...i just can't see it. Even a (very) bad zelda like SS got a 93, so you can expect the same or better for whatever zelda who came after.

I have a feeling that any game I'm playing after BOTW will be a let down :P This game is shaping up to be the best game ever. No pressure, Nintendo ^^

You guys do realize we're talking about Nintendo and Guerilla games.  Nintendo has a long history of making Zelda games on home consoles that score mid to upper 90's on metacritic.  Guerilla games has a long history (with one exception) of scoring in the 70-80 range, what makes you think Horizon will be different?  And with Zelda coming out a week later the sales will take a major hit on Horizon.  

I'm really hopeful that Horizon is great, if it is then I'll get it day one.  But even with a large install base, I don't think it will come close on sales.

Just my two cents.

I see your argument and I think youre right for graphics and sales. However Zelda doesn't need better graphics because the art style more than makes up for it. Nobody will critisize Zelda for having worse graphics than horizon.

As for the metascore
I respect people's opinions but there is no chance in hell that Zelda gets a lower metascore than Horizon. This is objective.

There is a very good chance that Zelda will end up with a better score. But GG can outdone themselves. Nothing is impossible.

Why would Switch and Zelda cause damage to a PS4 exclusive? Is this like when GTA IV killed the Wii? Zelda and the Switch sales will have no bearing on Horizon, all in all.

As for the rest; you'll note that neither I nor DanneSandin said that Horizon will "win" metascores, I think the exact opposite.

As for sales, that's a more open one, Switch obviously won't have any significant installed base when the game releases and the Wii U installed base is very small. The best selling Zelda in recent times (as in the last decade or so) is Skyward Sword on Wii with roughly 4 million sales and Ocarina of Time on 3DS with about 4.4 million sales. The best selling ones ever are the original OoT on N64, with about 7.6 million and Twilight Princess on Wii with about 7.15 million. Ocarina of Time was just huge, beyond huge on the N64 and is the highest rated video game of all time and TP had what would become a 100 million installed base to sell to.
Seeing as how Zelda on home consoles has taken a massive plunge in attach rate and the Switch is very, very, very unlikely to have a 100 million installed base, even adding in all Wii U owners, there's nothing to suggest that this Zelda will set an unbeatable standard of sales, but it's a wild card either way.

Horizon may sell more, it could also sell less, of course. Seeing Uncharted 4 propelled towards 10 million + lifetime, one cannot underestimate the sales potential of action titles on the PS4 either. Yes, UC is an established series by a well known developer, but breakout games happen all the time and Horizon could very well be one (plus, the first UC sold almost 5 million as a new IP on a brand new platform and was in a genre that Naughty Dog were not tested in at all).

I'm not super sure that Horizon will take a major hit in sales; it all depends on how many Zelda fans is thinking about buying Horizon and how many hardcore gamers is thinking about getting a Switch. If hardcore gamers is super interested in the Switch, I can see Horizon taking a hit - but other than that, the release of the Switch and Zelda shouldn't effect Horizon all that much. But it's a good point. The question is if it's motsly Nintendo fans that gets their hands on the Switch first, or other gamers.

It's the only major game, besides Zelda, which I can think of right off the bat, that releases any time soon, so you have 50m people wanting to play something new by the time Horizon comes around, and not everyone of those 50m peoples will be getting a Switch day one. But yeah, I wouldn't be super surprised if Zelda sold more, not at all.