Outspoken Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter has once again been posed with a question about Nintendo NX, asked when he believes that the “dedicated game platform” is likely to launch.

To his credit he is quick to say that he doesn’t know, but uses Nintendo’s approach with their past consoles to predict the most likely scenario being that it won’t launch until 2017.

His curiosity swirls around rumours that development kits have already been distributed, news that would mean that there’s still potential for the platform to launch in 2016. But, he is still swayed toward predicting that it will arrive later than that.

“I can talk about Nintendo’s past practice, and use that as a predictor of the future. But, I don’t know,” he responded on Siftd’s Pachter Factor. “Nintendo’s past practice has been to announce their next generation consoles at E3, and to release them 18 months later. And they typically will have a prototype and a couple of game markups… where you can play something.

“But they take about 18 months, and last I checked we don’t have 18 months until the end of 2016. So, it is less likely that something is coming out in 2016. But, the rumours are that there are NX dev kits out there. We don’t know how long they have been out there, but if the rumour has leaked they have probably been out a couple of months. It is really slightly possible that developers can make something for NX console launch in fall 2016, and do a quality product in 13 – 15 months. Slightly possible.”

Read more here: http://www.nintendo-insider.com/2015/12/07/pachter-nintendo-nx-unlikely-to-launch-in-2016/

I don't know If I have to worry about patcher  using the same pattern that I firstly did!:P I'm dazzled by that thing! Look here!

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=201806&page=1 Back in April

Why I believe that if Nintendo NX is a home console won't be released in 2016 but 2017, on holidays!

I have several reasons to believe that (such as some known game releases in 2016, already released games  sales legs, xbox/ps4 middle LT) but I remembered a  long trend...

The dolphin (codename of the  gc) was teased in 1999 (third year of n64) ,was announcend at E3 2000 and it released in november 2001, Revolution(codename of the wii) was teased in 2004 (third year of gc) was announced at E3 2005 and released in november 2006, Nx was teased this year (2015,third year of wii u) Announcement at E3 2016? Probably as ninty said that we will get details for it in 2016, release november 2017?

Also, Project cafe (codename of the wii u) may not followed exactly this trend obviously because wii was selling tons of units but partially it did it since it was announced in E3 2011 and released in november 2012, i.e an announcement in E3 and a release one year and half after of it, So that't a proof too! The only difference is that it wasn't  teased in its predecessor third year but in the 5th of it (It's apparent why,wii was a beast) and  in the year of its announcement at E3...  

P.s The general trend is to tease in 5, announce in 6, and release in  7 (Releasing one year after the announcement/disclosure)...  3DS was shown at E3 2010 and was released in February-March 2011...

So the NX is coming in 2016!

How dare you to doubt patcher! :P

Anyway, he doesn't express an opinion, he reminds us a longtime traditional practice (for which I had made thread back in April ) of Nintendo which leads him to a conclusion! :P

No but he is expressing a prediction so we have no option but to take it with a fistful of salt ...

Not wrong enough. Probably comes next week.

hahahhaaha! I heard something about next Friday... Do you know anything about it? :P

Nintendo can't announce NX formally because the Wii U and 3DS are so weak that their sales would crater.

They could show NX today I'm sure if they really wanted to, they probably could have shown it at E3 earlier in the year really. But they've never had a platform as weak as the Wii U (aside from Virtual Boy) and it would cause Wii U sales to collapse and would not help 3DS either. They need to get through this holiday season which is probably going to be one of their worst (in terms of hardware sales) ever, making a bad situation worse by showing off the next-gen platforms early than need be would just be stupid. 

That's the main reason they're not doing it. 

Beyond that it's 2015, not 1996 anymore .... debuting a hardware platform 18+ months before release doesn't excite anyone anymore. Like who wants to see a cool piece of tech and then be told "now wait 18 months for this, ok, thanks bye".

Yeah no way. PS4/XB1 were unveiled 5-6 months before launch for a reason, Apple releases their iPhones/iPads/etc. soon after unveil.

The electronics world has changed, and why would you want to do anything like the Wii U again anyway? Pretty much nothing went right for that console.

I still believe it may launch in 2016. Maybe they decided to change pattern and do like Microsoft/Sony and launch the system the year it is announced. It is hard to keep the interest for a console that will launch in 1 year and a half later in this day and age when people move on to the next news very quickly. Besides, this year they have barely announced new Wii U games. All of the 2016 lineup are games we already knew about or delayed games. To me this says that they are not actively developing new Wii U games and have moved to the NX

100% agree. The reason for the secrecy is that a reveal at this point would hurt their systems a lot. They'll probably unveil it at E3 and release it November 2016. Maybe the first reveal is a month or two before E3 and then a full blowout there.

Calm down... The thread it's not about ruling out the 2016 release possibility! I'm not a guy that when speculates does it with  excessive certainty instead of some dubiety! I made thread just because patcher used the same logic with me, I was surprised by the fact that an analyst, even if it's patcher, thought the same way with me... :P

Also patcher doesn't stays to the trend he uses other arguments too.

In addition, only 7 months seperating E3 16 from 2017, the tradition may suggest holidays 2017, or 18 months after the reveal at E3 but it could just release in the beginning of 2017, after seven months of its announcement...This is still 2017!  If it would be released in 2016, that would happen late november, so what's the difference of releasing it two-three months later than that period? Holiday release advantage? People then are focused to previous gen consoles (wii, xbox 360, ps3 were outselling their predecessors which were released on holidays) and  Consoles debut sales are usually the same no matter their month of their release... For instance, gamecube was released in september and wii u in december in Japan (first week 300k), their sales were the same, 3ds which was released in february had a 300k week too in Japan, same with ps4.. Plus, can they drop enough big  guns for 2016 holidays, does the time they have till then allows it...?

Regardless the month, the fact is that they release their products in the year after E3...