It's coming out next year. Rumour after rumour and article after article keep pointing to this. It's like a crime scene, you may not have definitive proof but when dozens of pieces of circumstantial evidence keep pointing to the same conclusion then the case is solved.

I'll laugh hard at every earnings report.

I mean, sure this could happen, but I find it extremely unlikely that it lasts 3 more years.Having said that, i actually agree with you that its a bit annoying that people are taking every single rumour as a fact.By Nintendo fashion, when it oficially reveals NX in E3, it could blow us all away(in the sense that we didnt see it comming).I like theorising too and all, but sometimes people go a bit too far with their truths and all.

Yep thats what i see happening as well. It also gives some time for more Wii U and 3DS games. 

That would be the end of them for sure, at least as we know them today.

Well let's take a look at year 5/6 for N64, GC, Wii

N64 2001-Paper Mario, Pokémon Stadium 2, Mario Party 3

GC 2006-Chibi Robo, Twilight Princess

Wii 2011-Return to Dreamland, Skyward Sword

Wii 2012-Mario Party 9, Xenoblade Chronicles

The last 3 Nintendo consoles had absolutely shit support after the 4th year, so why not just cut off those extra years of no support?

Why can't they afford it? They went from posting repeated losses in the last couple of years of Wii due to costs of developing Wii U, and then the first year or two of Wii U also saw losses... but now they're making a profit. And the 3DS is vastly dominant in the handheld dedicated gaming console field. They're getting more money thanks to their amiibo line, and their biggest title is still a year away.

I'm not saying that Nintendo is going to wait until 2018 to start the next generation. Just that they very easily could do so, and wouldn't 'die' as a result. Nintendo's franchises are incredibly strong. They could practically remain steady just by releasing Zelda U at the end of 2016, and then Mario Galaxy 3 at the end of 2017, and those two titles alone would be sufficient to keep them treading water until 2018. Of course, they'd probably also have an amiibo-centric title (akin to Skylanders, etc), a Metroid title, an F-Zero title, an Animal Crossing title, and a Fire Emblem title, to name just a few franchises they could release in the interim to keep things going.

Realistically, I see at least the next home console being released in 2017. If NX does release at all in 2016, it'll be a handheld (if NX is two systems with the same architecture, then it makes sense for the handheld to be released first, and given a year head start, to build up the titles that can then be played in incredibly-high-fidelity on the console). This also makes more sense with the rumours - supposedly, Nintendo was planning 20 million shipped in 2016 alone; there's no way that they'd expect such sales for a home console in the launch period. On the other hand, a handheld could do it, since families often get more than one handheld.

Also note that manufacturing 20 million consoles within 6 months isn't realistic, either. But 20 million handhelds might be.

Because those years of "no support" are years building up launch titles, while they finish off the last few notable titles for the system. It's also worth noting that Wii 2012 was a special case. Incidentally, you just listed the first title in each of three franchises that have become notable - Paper Mario, Chibi Robo, and Xenoblade Chronicles. Something to think about.

If that happens, I will eat my own socks. 

Chibi-Robo is about as niche as possible with a very small fanbase, Xenoblade was actually a 2010 title that just took forever to get localized, that leaves Paper Mario as the only relevant new title in the final year of each console.

There is no point in giving Wii U a 5th year just so it can get 1-2 notable releases, just make them first year NX titles instead.