spemanig said:
Soundwave said:
Even with the "radical change" of the unified platform, I think they will still continue to bleed marketshare. I hope it doesn't happen but realistically ... this could get real ugly, real fast. It doesn't really change the kid who's now into playing games on the iPad from really saying "yeak OK, now I'll buy Nintendo because that was my problem with Nintendo, not enough Nintendo games".
It will help them in some ways, but if they cannot stop the on going erosion of the portable market, they likely are done as a hardware market in a mainstream way. That's their bedrock, if that bedrock continues to crack, then everything they have as a hardware maker goes to shit.
3DS is going to finish at 70 million probably, it may actually not even get to 70 the way its fizzling right now. And that's worrisome, but I could honestly see that going even lower next gen.
Hopefully not below 50 million, but can I say with any certainty that that won't happen? No. If anything the handheld market especially outside of Japan is in full free fall.
Like I said I see it all the time when I travel for work at all the airport where you see dozens of kids playing on tablets/phones and like maybe once in a blue moon I see a 3DS. This isn't even a competetion anymore it's becoming a slaughter. These kids are nothing like 80s/90s/early 2000s kids, they are growing up with these mobile devices and they aren't going to give a shit about Nintendo dedicated hardware when they turn 12/13/14, just because Nintendo says they should. Even with Nintendo characters on iOS/Google ... I mean yeah you can get the "better" Pokemon on NX lets say, but that Pokemon iOS game does not look half-way bad at all. A lot of kids will just stay with the tablet/phone I think.
The shipment totals for the 3DS for the last two fiscal years (8.63 million last year and a target of 7 million for this year) are really, really concerning they have not had handheld shipments that low since before Pokemon was created.
It's not just Dragon Quest XI they need. If they can get other higher-end ports of even PS4 games like Kingdom Hearts 3, Resident Evil 2 REMake, MGSV, etc. that would help. That's why I think they should choose the most powerful chip they can, even if it means (likely) that they have to use a tablet form factor for thermal heat issues. They need all the NEW (actually relevant games to today's kids) games that they can get. If you have to rework your engine and jump through 50 hoops to get a game running on the NX portable, then we've seen that movie several times already and we know how that ends -- most developers won't even bother to try.
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I don't believe for a second that the smart phone market is cannibalizing handheld sales to the point where they will become a niche market. I think that the DS was an anomally much like the Wii and PS2 were, and that the 3DS is doing fine. Even if it does less than 70m, that is not indicative of any sort of decline, and a new, forward thinking handheld can do just as strongly, if not stronger than the 3DS.
You see kids playing on tablets and phones because parents buy tablets and phones for themselves and let their kids use them. The kids aren't playing on phones because they like phones better, they're playing on phones because parents give them phones to play one. Usually because it's their parents phones or because it's becoming more culturally acceptable to give children phones than it used to be. Doesn't matter. Many of those kids still have 3DSs. Enough to where there will likely be 70m by the end of the 3DS's life. You're seeing more kids playing games on phones now than in the 90s because in the 90s kids couldn't play games on cellphones. If there were decent games on cell phones in those days, you bet your bottom dollar they would be playing on those, and it would result in barely any lost handheld sales, because they aren't the same. It's just that 70m looks tiny compared to 1b. The handheld market is not in "free fall." The 3DS, when in its prime, was selling pheonominally, and it's dipping now because the platform is in desperate need for a generational upgrade. It has nothing to do with a downfall of the handheld market, and everything to do with the 3DS getting old and showing its age embarrasingly. That's all.
There will never be a day again where more kids play on dedicated gaming hardware than smart devices, because there are just more of them out there and, unlike consoles, they are nessecities. People have phones because they need them. That doesn't mean that handhelds are somehow obsolete. There will always be a large audience for those types of games that will absolutely never be replicated accurately on smart devices.
I never said DQX was all they need. I was merely using that as an example to show that the NX platform will be powerful enough to get 8th gen 3rd party ports. Clearly "jumping through 50 hoops" will not be an issue next generation. It's not "likely" that they'll use a tablet. It's 100% not happening. They'll use a chip powerful enough to scale down the home console ports, and it doesn't need to be much more powerful than the Vita to do that. The N3DS now can run the open world XBC. The NXDS doesn't need to provide the most technically impressive downports. They just need to run well enough, like HWL, Smash 4, SSF4, Sonic ASRT, etc before it. You look at the ResiRev2 comparisons between the Vita and the PS4 versions. That's the kind of difference you'll see. It looks good enough, and it runs. With how similar games are now to how they were last generation, that doesn't mean much at all. In fact, I'm sure the Vita now could get working ports of 95% of PS4 games. It doesn't need to be state of the art iPad 4 tech, and it's likely not going to be, even if it was a gaming tablet, which it won't be.
I agree that they need all new games, but not for kids. They already have relevant IP. Kid's aren't not playing them because this generation somehow "doesn't like" Mario or Pikachu anymore. They aren't playing them because parents are giving them other things to play. Mario is timeless, just like Mickey. Does Nintendo need Minecraft? Absolutely. Do they need Skylanders? Already have it. Angry Birds? Well, they need to work on the monetization of that, but it's there. That's not their issue. It's getting the platforms in kids hands, and that starts with parents and that starts with brand expansion. Amiibo are a great start, but what will really do it are the mobile games, the theme park, and the eventual major TV shows and films. Turning Nintendo into a cultural icon and a killer brand again.
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