when Andrew House say so.

PS2 was a different beast though. I wouldn't expect that kind of life span with PS3. At least in the West anyway.

Where they will use emulators you have no sources? its impossible and its cheaper producing original hardware now instead writing an emulator which need probably the strongest pc hardware to run properly like an 8x corei7.

For them it will be cheaper producing still ps3 sthan for Microsofts 360s because they will always run production for the chipsets. And ps3 is still doing well right now in eurasia, they will produce this console longer than the ps2

Probably Sony will do the last PS3 official price cut when it does the first PS4 one or shortly after, from then on PS could be produced for another 2 or 3 years. The conditions are two, profitability and sales high enough to keep busy a minimum number of production lines, while user base is large enough to grant SW releases and sales for years even without new sales, so that won't be a problem.

I'd guess,they'll stop at the end of next year.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2014-sony-creates-custom-ps3-for-playstation-now

Initially, Digital Foundry has learned that Sony experimented by placing standard retail units into datacentres, but plans to use this for the actual PlayStation Now service were shelved for a number of reasons. For starters there's the sheer space requirement, along with power efficiency issues, as even the most recent PS3 hardware can still draw up to 80W from the mains. Sony's engineers were able to mitigate both issues by shrinking the equivalent of eight PS3s onto a single motherboard, housed in a slimline server cabinet.

I hate to break it to you but that is impossible. The market determines when the PS3 is going to be discontinued (not Sony) and the market is doing so right now. Let's look at the final years before of the PS1 and PS2 to get an idea:

PS1:

  8th Fiscal Year = 6.78 million
  9th Fiscal Year = 3.31 million
10th Fiscal Year = 2.77 million

PS2:

11th Fiscal Year = 7.30 million
12th Fiscal Year = 6.40 million
13th Fiscal Year = 2.30 million

PS3:

  8th Fiscal Year = 6.90 million
  9th Fiscal Year = 3.66 million

Considering the fact that the PS3's sales are down over 55% compared to this time last year (0.96 vs 2.14 million) it becomes clear that it is very near the end of its lifespan. Production could cease by the end of the year but I personally think it will continue into 2016 because the PS3 is a bit of an unusal case when it comes to production costs and the revenue it generates. I can assure you that it will be discontinued before 2017 and it will be a distant memory by 2020.

Well you have two points you ignored. The  lack of a true slim psthree or a pricepoint U$ 100.

Neither of which is likely due to the PS3's architecture, namely the Cell. The Cell processor's die will shrink no further and nobody has bothered to try in many years. Nobody is going to invest the time or effort to make a slim PS3. Why would Sony bother to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to chase a handful of sales when the PS4 is such a huge success? Why would they divert resources from a far more successful, more profitable product? Even if it does happen what type of impact could you possibly expect it to have? The PS3 launched a decade ago and Sony has no reason to struggle to maintain its already low sales. With only a couple million sales for the entire year I doubt they will see any viable reason to produce a new model. I can not even see any reason for a price cut unless it is to clear remaining stock. What I'm trying to say is that the market has moved on and there is no indication that Sony will go against historical precedent or consumer demand and work to increase sales for a console that is effectively dead. Production will likely cease within the next year and no amount of wishful thinking will make your pipedream of the PS3 remaining on the market until 2020 even a remote possibility. They are not going to fight for a few hundred thousand sales a year for four to five years, that is simply not going to happen.

Not being likely or you don't expecting it doesn't make it impossible... and you talk about historical data and trend, you are looking at only one part of it, but ok, there is not much point in talking about which will happen.