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Forums - Movies & TV - What will be the next movie to break a billion at the box office globally?

spurgeonryan said:
JamaicameCRAZY said:

007 spectre, hunger games, and star wars.


I do not really think any of those will make it. The last bond was kind of a reboot and had great reviews and got lucky.

 

Hunger games....no. Star wars is the only one I am nervous about, but I think will be between 800 million and a billion. WW could push that one...


If Star Wars is just "good" 70-75 RT it will make a billion. If it is 85+ I would see it going nuts and making as much as JW (Similiar ratio Domestic, and Foriegn)



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The new Bond for sure.
Star Wars will crack 1.5B easily if the reviews are good. I'd even saw upwards of $2B as a bold guess.



spurgeonryan said:
JamaicameCRAZY said:

007 spectre, hunger games, and star wars.


I do not really think any of those will make it. The last bond was kind of a reboot and had great reviews and got lucky.

 

Hunger games....no. Star wars is the only one I am nervous about, but I think will be between 800 million and a billion. WW could push that one...

People being excited about Star Wars again, bringing back old cast members. The start will be huge enough. If the reviews are good it'll blast past it in no time.

 

Phantom Menace made over 900M worldwide at the time and we all know how good that was......plus tickets weren't nearly as expensive and they didn't have the 3D boost.



Well

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Spectre (bond 24)


They all may reach $1 billion+

I doubt any other film apart from the 3 that already have will do so.

 

Remember China is much bigger and even only 2 years ago most films made less than $100 million in China, this year big films are making over $200 million



spurgeonryan said:
JamaicameCRAZY said:

007 spectre, hunger games, and star wars.


I do not really think any of those will make it. The last bond was kind of a reboot and had great reviews and got lucky.

 

Hunger games....no. Star wars is the only one I am nervous about, but I think will be between 800 million and a billion. WW could push that one...


Star wars will absolutely make it. Old fans will come out as well as jj abrams fans. Its gona cross that mark.

The first hunger games made 860 million the next 2 went down. All it will take is a strong film and good advertisement to bring it back up. It has a shot. 

Spectre is a wildcard. Skyfall made it to a billion and i didnt think it was some amazing film. It certainly has a shot. Might even be the last time daniel craig plays him so they have to go all out.

 

I was tempted to put the peanuts film on here but if tintin only grossed 373 million worldwide i doubt it will make that mark. I dont think peanutd has the global appeal tintin has.



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Also minions wont make it either.



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spurgeonryan said:
JamaicameCRAZY said:
Also minions wont make it either.

But Minions is already over 500 million pretty much.

Star Wars will depend on word of mouth and repeat showings.


I dont think it will have the legs. Dispicable me 2 didnt even break a billion and im willing to bet its better film.

Its also just tracking just 5 million over dispicable me 2 in the us and at 444 million worldwide right now.



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AlfredoTurkey said:
This whole business about total gross is pointless due to inflation. The only true measure of a movies success is tickets SOLD. Not gross income.

Here is the top 10 domestic (US) records

1 Gone with the Wind
2 Star Wars
3 The Sound of Music
4 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial
5 Titanic
6 The Ten Commandments
7 Jaws
8 Doctor Zhivago
9 The Exorcist W
10 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs Dis.

The whole problem is, back in early part of last century there was almost nothing else for the masses to do for entertainment other than go to the movies, and there were fewer movies released per year so people had less choice, or didn't need to pick and choose what to see like we do now. These days there is also a lot more besides movies competing for the entertainment dollar (including video games), most notably VHS-->DVD-->Blu Ray, which a lot of people wait for a movie to come out to buy / rent. As time has gone by the wait between box office release and DVD/Blu ray release has shortened a lot. And in the last 10-15 years streaming (including unofficial streaming the day the movie releases) also affects box office. So across generations ticket numbers is not really an equitable comparison either because conditions in the entertainment industries have changed a huge amount in that time.

It's very interesting to note that out of those top 10, the only movie that was released after home video became mainstream was Titanic, and none of the top 10 was released after fast broadband became mainstream. ET cam out just as VHS was becomming really mainstream, but its box office gross did not take a hit from the VHS thing.

It won't be long before a current year movie will need to make $1 billion in the USA alone in order to break into the adjusted for inflation top 10. I think it's highly unlikely that any future movie will ever break in to the top 20 adjusted for inflation list. As time goes by it is harder and harder for contemporary movies to get high up on that list.

OT, I think Star Wars will disappoint, but like The Hobbit it will make $1 billion because it is what it is. People want to capture the magic of the original Star Wars, but it's not possible because at the time Star Wars was what Avatar was in 2009, a technical breakthrough with enough of a story to keep people interested. Star Wars only has 2 truly good movies, everything else Star Wars related has basically been riding on the back of A New Hope and Empire Strikes Back. 

 



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spurgeonryan said:
JamaicameCRAZY said:

007 spectre, hunger games, and star wars.


I do not really think any of those will make it. The last bond was kind of a reboot and had great reviews and got lucky.

 

Hunger games....no. Star wars is the only one I am nervous about, but I think will be between 800 million and a billion. WW could push that one...

Since The Force Awakens trailer is one of the most watched of all time (if not the most if I'm correct), it should do it. Not because its trailer has lots of views, but because there's hype for it. 



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first.