vkaraujo said: Greece will unveil their new currency, drachma most likely, and say it worth the same as an EUR, 1:1. Than they will index all their debts in drachma. All of that while the market is closed. Once the market opens, FOREX will drop drachma like a rock, therefore it will be easier to ''pay'' the debts and it is going to stimulate tourism, which is pretty much greece single industry. They are going to have 2 or 3 crap years, than start to grow. It will be similar to Argentina, but worst at first. The difference being Argentina problem had a small impact in the region. I don't know how Greece default will affect EU. |
if their currency is hugely devalued then their debts sky rocket because it requires more currency to pay off their debts. Greece paying off their debts just doesn't seem realistic. It was unrealistic with the euro currency and 100x less realistic it seems under a new currency. That debt won't be repaid. The creditors will be lucky to get a cent on the dollar etc.
As previously stated no bank or government will be interested in loaning money to Greece. If anyone is stupid enough to do so then the interest rate would be so high it would again be very damaging to the Greek economy.
They seem to be pretty decent people though and I wish them well but like so many others they seem to expect to live well beyond their income. They need to stop getting angry and start working towards a well managed successful economy. It's an economy that can easily have a booming tourist industry and large food exports. Perhaps they need to start producing more processed food for export and try to invest in high margin exports. On the opposite side they need to massively reduce imports and start producing goods locally that they need. Their own currency will give them a lot more control over their economy and they need that.