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Forums - Politics Discussion - Should Social Security in the U.S Be Privatized?

 

Should Social Security Be Privatized?

Yes 28 24.14%
 
No 78 67.24%
 
Maybe 3 2.59%
 
Undecided 7 6.03%
 
Total:116
sc94597 said:
Danman27 said:
You're asking me to compare based on two graphs that use a different form of measure. How can I make an opinion based on that?

Actually no I'm not. If you noticed, there was a link in the OP as well. And from that you can read. 

So those two graph are in no way misleading?



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enlightenedmaster said:
sc94597 said:

1. well most the time time,remaining assets do not really cover the amount of fraud that has taken place

2. diversifying assets is good but most of all government shud be taking of certain basic things in human life

people who have worked 40 years in a corporation ahev their pensions lost as the company they worked for went under and as corporations have ups and downs and no company has more than 10-20 of high stability normally,its better not to trust private sector

also the headache of shifting money over and over again in ur old age is not the most liked scenario

 

3. USA was a small country back then so people didn't expect much

today,USA is the biggest and greatest EMPIRE the world has ever seen

 

4. People expect better things as a Nation progresses and prospers

also if you know,USA was able to live happily and work-out its democratic experiment only because World Security and Trade was maintained by Britain without which USA wudn't have succeeded



1. I can guarantee you that these individuals don't suffer when their company goes in bankruptsy. They have secured funds elsewhere. 

2. It doesn't matter if the company you are employed by goes under. All that matters is that the companies and resources you've invested in go under. And if you invest in many of them the probability is low for you to lose a sizeable portion of your savings. 

3. No it wasn't. It was the largest economy since the 1870's when it surpassed Britain, and it was quite large even before then. That is a good generation before the progressive era. 

4. A huge proportion of the growth was internal. So I definetely would not say the U.S would not had suceeded without world trade. World trade was actually a problem for the U.S's establishment at the time and that is why tariffs were so high during that period.  I don't think Americans truly took advantage of free-trade during that period, like they could've - again, because of protectionism. It's natural resources allowed it to be self-sufficient, in contract, however.

But all of that is besides the point: people want their cake and to eat it to. They want low unemployment and large economic growth with no downturns, AND they want huge safety nets (for which they are not responsible) and/or large militaries. You can't have both, at least not in the excess that there is today. 



Danman27 said:
sc94597 said:

Actually no I'm not. If you noticed, there was a link in the OP as well. And from that you can read. 

So those two graph are in no way misleading?

One of the graphs describes how one system has succeeded in its goal (by producing returns on investments, represented as GDP shares) and the other graph shows the huge cost of a purely public retirement system (through deficits.) The juxtaposition of the two is not suppost to be a direct comparison, but a highlight of the advantage of the first and a highlight of the issues with the second. 

Notice the headings,

"Australia's Private Retirement System Generates Big Increases in Wealth" - substantiated with the graph. 

"America's Social Security System Produces Huge Budget Deficits" - substantiated with the graph. 

I chose to post the graphs as they were interesting pieces of the blogpost, but there is more to the blogpost than the graphs, and the author did say this: 

"The two charts aren’t analogous, of course, but that’s because there’s nothing to compare. The Social Security system has no savings. Indeed, it discourages people from setting aside income."



sc94597 said:
sethnintendo said:

Yea let us over-inflate the stock market and cause a huge bubble again.

When most of these new assets cannot be taken out until 30-50 years from now (you are not allowed to touch it until retirement) how exactly would the boom, bust? Nobody will stop investing or remove their assets out of fear, because they can't. They'll just move it to other assets, if they are afraid. By the time people can collect, the stock market would have grown large enough to accomodate, assuming no interim disasters. This is also especially true if we consider that the diversification of assets wouldn't make any single investment more popular than any another. Also if it is done gradually (slow decrease in social security and slow increase in personal account mandates this would also not be an issue.) It would have to be done gradually anyway, because there are people already invested in the social security system. Social security would likely still exist, but mostly for the poor and disabled. 

Sure, any circumstance in which resources are being allocated unoptimally will lead to a bubble, but some bubbles are much worse than others. And this one is at least predictable. 

This would be much less endangering to the stock market than the poor manipulation of interest rates by the FED anyway. 


I believe the stock market is already over inflated.  The bubble has grown and many companies stocks are pumped up more than they are really worth.  If all of a sudden the SS money is dumped into 401Ks then this will cause the market to jump up way too high.  The people that can pull money will to make a decent profit.  Sure the SS money would perhaps stabilize it overtime but it would be an almost instant cut in overall SS money when the bubble pops shortly after the huge spike.  No worries then it would take about 5-10 years to recover that lost money before another bubble.  The overall trend would be up but imagine if you became of retirement age when the market was way down.  Your money would be cut in half during the down years but you still would like to start taking money out.  If anything it should be put into CDs or some other low interest but less volatile market. 

First thing that need to happen though is that the government needs to stop spending/drawing from the SS fund for other things besides SS.



sethnintendo said:
sc94597 said:

When most of these new assets cannot be taken out until 30-50 years from now (you are not allowed to touch it until retirement) how exactly would the boom, bust? Nobody will stop investing or remove their assets out of fear, because they can't. They'll just move it to other assets, if they are afraid. By the time people can collect, the stock market would have grown large enough to accomodate, assuming no interim disasters. This is also especially true if we consider that the diversification of assets wouldn't make any single investment more popular than any another. Also if it is done gradually (slow decrease in social security and slow increase in personal account mandates this would also not be an issue.) It would have to be done gradually anyway, because there are people already invested in the social security system. Social security would likely still exist, but mostly for the poor and disabled. 

Sure, any circumstance in which resources are being allocated unoptimally will lead to a bubble, but some bubbles are much worse than others. And this one is at least predictable. 

This would be much less endangering to the stock market than the poor manipulation of interest rates by the FED anyway. 


I believe the stock market is already over inflated.  The bubble has grown and many companies stocks are pumped up more than they are really worth.  If all of a sudden the SS money is dumped into 401Ks then this will cause the market to jump up way too high.  The people that can pull money will to make a decent profit.  Sure the SS money would perhaps stabilize it overtime but it would be an almost instant cut in overall SS money when the bubble pops shortly after the huge spike.  No worries then it would take about 5-10 years to recover that lost money before another bubble.  The overall trend would be up but imagine if you became of retirement age when the market was way down.  Your money would be cut in half during the down years but you still would like to start taking money out.  If anything it should be put into CDs or some other low interest but less volatile market.

It isn't going to happen like that. It will happen gradually. There is no "SS money" to put into 401 k's anyway. The 401 k's would be future investments, and would likely start out at a very low mandated rate (like 1%-3% of a person's income) and grow gradually. Social security would be scaled down gradually to make up for the burden on employees. A sizable portion of the workforce already has 401 k's (something like 50%) so the effect is even more minsicule that would be thought. Plus you can put a sizable portion of this money into bonds if you are afraid about stock market fluctuations. 



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sc94597 said:

1. I can guarantee you that these individuals don't suffer when their company goes in bankruptsy. They have secured funds elsewhere. 

what?

they almost certainly do

2. It doesn't matter if the company you are employed by goes under. All that matters is that the companies and resources you've invested in go under. And if you invest in many of them the probability is low for you to lose a sizeable portion of your savings. 

if the company has done shenanigans with funds itself then the savings go down with the company

3. No it wasn't. It was the largest economy since the 1870's when it surpassed Britain, and it was quite large even before then. That is a good generation before the progressive era. 

yup but still as a global player BRITAIN,FRANCE, dominated the global scene.It is nowhere near what it is today

4. A huge proportion of the growth was internal. So I definetely would not say the U.S would not had suceeded without world trade. World trade was actually a problem for the U.S's establishment at the time and that is why tariffs were so high during that period.  I don't think Americans truly took advantage of free-trade during that period, like they could've - again, because of protectionism. It's natural resources allowed it to be self-sufficient, in contract, however.

if trade and world security wud not have been handled by BRITAIN then there wud be war happening all over the place and actually cud even happen in North America which USA was trying to conquer and influence

But all of that is besides the point: people want their cake and to eat it to. They want low unemployment and large economic growth with no downturns, AND they want huge safety nets (for which they are not responsible) and/or large militaries. You can't have both, at least not in the excess that there is today. 

nobody really wants economic growth as economy can only grow upto a certain point,peak and then go down as in a cycle throughout history

unemployment and downturn will always be there but can't be stabalised to a certain extent

 

not all people want safety net,its only the Modern Liberal west who is crazy anout Welfarism

Soviet and China and other communist and socialist states were more of a peiordic problem not historical

 

abt large militaries,everything goes in cycle and with a Nations growth comes conquest and other responsibilities and so do more prosperity and more taxes

 

we probably can't have everything,but there can easily be a very very stable system





I think Starcraft has done a pretty good job at explaining but to be clear it is the only 'privatised' social security that we have in Australia, at least as far as I know, and as already mentioned we still have the pension for those who have not accumulated sufficient Super for whatever reason.

Just to clarify with an example. My employer contributes a minimum of 9.75% per year which is separate from and quoted independently from my salary. We are then encouraged (by our employer) to contribute additional amounts from our salary, with our employer matching additional contributions that we make up to a maximum of 5%. i.e. if i put in 5% extra, so will they. Just to sweeten the deal we can make our optional payments pre income tax. As a result you can be banking up to 19.75% Super per year (14.75 from the employer and 5% by the employee) This is set to increase to nearly 24% in the next couple of years.

I presently have my Super invested (my choice) in a 'high risk' portfolio (figured it was a good option post GFC) which has seen an average return of nearly 20% over the last 5 years. My contributions at the moment total only 13.75% (because I'm still paying student loans), but all in all I've accumulated nearly 100K in the past 5 years, on a decent, but not particularly high, salary. That's money sitting in my Super account, managed by a company of my choosing and invested as I see fit.

If you ask me I reckon that's pretty good.



enlightenedmaster said:
sc94597 said:

1. what?

they almost certainly do

2. if the company has done shenanigans with funds itself then the savings go down with the company

3. yup but still as a global player BRITAIN,FRANCE, dominated the global scene.It is nowhere near what it is today

4. if trade and world security wud not have been handled by BRITAIN then there wud be war happening all over the place and actually cud even happen in North America which USA was trying to conquer and influence

5. nobody really wants economic growth as economy can only grow upto a certain point,peak and then go down as in a cycle throughout history

unemployment and downturn will always be there but can't be stabalised to a certain extent

 

not all people want safety net,its only the Modern Liberal west who is crazy anout Welfarism

Soviet and China and other communist and socialist states were more of a peiordic problem not historical

 

abt large militaries,everything goes in cycle and with a Nations growth comes conquest and other responsibilities and so do more prosperity and more taxes

 

we probably can't have everything,but there can easily be a very very stable system



1. Sorry let me rephrase that. I meant that they still have personal funds elsewhere which likely exceed what they've lost (corporately) during the process towards bankrupsy. Often when a company goes bankrupt, its employees responsible for said bankruptsy also don't go bankrupt. They've secured themselves. 

2. Wasn't it already said that in this situation you are the one who has most control over the funds? For example, this personal account follows you from employer to employer (at least from what I gather.) So if the company that you've worked for is gone, you still have your personal account. They were only responsible for docking your pay and putting it in to something, that something being of your choice.

3. Sure, but why do we care about that? As long as the country is functioning, people are producing, and benefiting themeselves why does it matter if one is a "global player?" The U.S was an economic powerhouse regardless of its global status. 

4. Not likely. The U.S was able to stave off Britain, and benefit from France and Spain BECAUSE of their wars. If they weren't at war with each-other, than Spain and France would have bigger claims in their North American assets (no Lousiana Purchase, no former Mexican states) and the colonies would never had won the Revolutionary War nor the War of 1812. The U.S was successful because everybody else was at war, not peace. After that Britain became a superpower, but it still wouldn't dare to go to war with the U.S for the same reason the U.S doesn't go to war with China, and they were the only ones capable of it.

5. Since after the end of the middle ages the amount of production and useable resources in the world has only increased. Before that it was flat. Destitution (absolute poverty, not relative poverty) has greatly decreased from something like 80% of the world's population at the end of the 18th century to only 20% today.

Of course people want economic growth. That is the long term struggle, to remove scarcity of resources as much as possible. And you can only do that through production.



sc94597 said:
enlightenedmaster said:
sc94597 said:

Like they do in Australia?

i don't really know the Australian system

 

but i wudn't compare USA with Australia,Japan,Europe,etC

 

USA is much much more rowdy and cut-throat capitalist then any of those places and a higher risk of fraud

In this case the government prevents the fraud. In Australia's system they essentially force people to get the equivalent of a 401k. Social Security is less secure because of changing demographics influencing the payout.


changing demographics influence asset prices too...  more old people=more seller...



generic-user-1 said:
sc94597 said:
enlightenedmaster said:
sc94597 said:

Like they do in Australia?

i don't really know the Australian system

 

but i wudn't compare USA with Australia,Japan,Europe,etC

 

USA is much much more rowdy and cut-throat capitalist then any of those places and a higher risk of fraud

In this case the government prevents the fraud. In Australia's system they essentially force people to get the equivalent of a 401k. Social Security is less secure because of changing demographics influencing the payout.


changing demographics influence asset prices too...  more old people=more seller...

Wouldn't more old people => fewer sales because they are going to be using their assets when they are old  rather than paying into them? Like it has been said, if somebody doesn't want to play the market game, they can always buy bonds instead.