WC4Life said:
ZhugeEX said:
I don't make guesses like people on chartz do. That's why I'm criticising both yourself and chartz.
And you're right, I don't know why I'm wasting time on this forum. Only reason I joined is because any time I make a thread on GAF which talks about sales or the in depth reports I write it's instantly posted here on Chartz by some random people who don't bother to credit me.
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Now I find your analysis very deep and respect that but...
Do you understand how arrogant it sounds when you claim you don't make guesses? Closest thing to no guesswork would probably be if you were very deep inside the industry. It is possible but is it true? If it was true, then it is not fair to criticize people analyzing with the limited data they have on their hand.
NPD and GfK provide very accurate and reliable data but in the end there are still "hard guesses" and very real error margin involved. Sold through data will never be as accurate than publisher/manufacturer shipped data, simply because sold through data is collected from thousands of retailers but shipped data collected on from few. Thus the possibility of human error is considerably lower on shipped data. Problem lies within NPD data usage, it is very rarely questioned in sales talk. I am 100% sure there have been many significant errors within NPD data over the years, however it has "earned" pretty much absolute status.
If you take a critical look on your methology, do you still claim there are no guesses? I bet it is full of guesses. If it is a guess of probability of 99% being true and there are 5 of them, the end result will be very accurate most likely. But the assumptions are there.
Like I said, your analysis is high level, I don't deny that and I agree with the result you end up. Still you act like you have been blinded by your own approach being the one and mighty, to the point you don't anymore accept other people's different approach on the matter. Methology itself does not matter when the goal is to end up as close to the truth as possible. What is the objective proof that your methology is superior? Start with providing objective truth...
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You talk a lot of sense. I like you.
Yes I came across arrogant here. It was because I sometimes get annoyed reading some posts on this forum where people have no clue. You're right in that I shouldn't let it get to me and should discuss things in a more civil manner.
The methodology I use is based on definitives. I'm not a huge fan of the "lets add x amount more to account for y" method of calculating stuff. If we don't have enough data to come to an actual number then I'll use the data we do have and say it must have sold more. Maybe I'm just cautious when it comes to posting numbers. I am happy with using proven market research data to come to an estimated number though. However with Chartz a lot of the data I see here is inaccurate and based on the research I've done into Chartz they don't have any actual POS tracking at all.
Anyway, thanks for your post. I'll try and change my posting style here and try not to get annoyed by others posts.
