Our goal is to be able to bring four or five new big games to the platform every year. (...) We do not have an imposed formula in terms of team size, style of play, ranking or genre. We give our teams a lot of creative freedom on what they want to create. "

http://www.jeuxvideo.com/news/1146197/entretien-avec-phil-spencer-xcloud-est-essentiel-dans-l-expansion-de-notre-marque.htm

So 4-5 AAA IP per year + smaller IP (AA).

I'd be all for them getting a deal with Remedy again. Alan Wake and Quantum Break were Xbox exclusives when they released. 

Yeah it is always up to the independent studios to decide if they want to work on a game with MS, Sony or Nintendo. The Epic Games exclusive deal reportedly cost Epic around $10 million (If I am remembering this correctly.) That must have covered a fair amount of the development costs. 

I am still holding out how we get an Alan Wake 2.

Our goal is to be able to bring four or five new big games to the platform every year. (...) We do not have an imposed formula in terms of team size, style of play, ranking or genre. We give our teams a lot of creative freedom on what they want to create. "

http://www.jeuxvideo.com/news/1146197/entretien-avec-phil-spencer-xcloud-est-essentiel-dans-l-expansion-de-notre-marque.htm

So 4-5 AAA IP per year + smaller IP (AA).

Wildcards/Unknowns.

• 343 Industries - Unsure on what they plan on doing with spin-offs for Halo, arguably they haven't taken advantage of Halo spin-offs as much as Bungie, who had Reach, ODST and Halo Wars. 343 Industries have only done Halo Wars and some mobile titles, they've had a rougher time satisfying fans with mainline Halo though so it's best for them to get that sorted first, if they decide to take full advantage of Halo they could produce more spin-offs from AA to AAA but for now I'm only going to count them as a single team studio for new titles.
• The Coalition - There's rumours to suggest that they're working on Perfect Dark, that would almost certainly be an AAA title which could put The Coalition into a 2 AAA team studio, albeit both teams as stated by a Gears leaker over on Era are in very early production, like The Coalition Idk what their plans for spin-offs will be past Gears Tactics.
• Rare - They are obviously assisting on Battletoads but there could possibly be more titles they're assisting on as hinted by in a recent interview.
• InXile - I honestly struggle to predict whether InXile will go AAA or remain AA, Brian Fargo has by far been the most enthusiastic among the acquired studios about all the resources and support they're now getting, the question now is whether he used it to go all in on one title or spread it out among multiple teams.
• Obsidian (Feargus Urquhart) - This is on the basis that he does return to game development as he has stated he wants to, does he start his own team or does he join another, will that be spreading Obsidian too thin or will they just heavily outsource?.
• XGP - Wildcard, don't have a clue what their investment will be, right now I'd say they have 2 AA's (Ori: WotW, Tell Me Why) and 1 AAA (Flight Simulator).

Personally I would put The Outer Wilds as a game between AA-AAA I would also put We Happy Few in this category. Obsidian will probably have one AAA(Skyrim/Pillars team) one midsized team (Outer Worlds team) and the rest split into smaller projects depending on what type of projects they want to work on like the Grounded team and the other team currently working the CRPG. I hope that Feargus brings back StormLands without the multiplayer aspect and just make it a single player 3rd Person RPG.

Inxile already stated that they have a project that is between AA-AAA and I expect Compulsions next game to be the same.