That is what pessimist people always says

I think that, as you proved with the ship rate for Pikmin 3, shipment =/= sales. P3 sold well under it's shipment, and it didn't sell well worldwide, which is what people are saying Splatoon will do. Selling 240k lifetime in Japan isn't a good thing. That's not something to be proud of. That's the definition of dropping off. If you're definition of "selling so well people will eat crow" is selling like P3, I'll start cooking right now.

How has it been proven that the US preorder numbers are no longer reliable?

Sales wise, I think it'll be front loaded. I don't know how it will do FW WW, but I think it'll drop fast afterwards. Like I said, I'm in no position to guess concrete numbers like that.

"Selling 240k lifetime in Japan isn't a good thing" According to you, not even 5% of every game released in japan does these numbers and yet its a wiiu game thats not even in Nintendo's huge sellers. Its hard to do even 200k lol.

"If you're definition of "selling so well people will eat crow" is selling like P3, I'll start cooking right now." Wow, you really dont understand the situation at all here, i really mean it.

"Like I said, I'm in no position to guess concrete numbers like that" Yet you criticise others smh

I'm not ignoring anything. I don't see how anything that can mess up whether something will sell more than something else can be seen as a reliable sourse to predict from, regardless of some isolated instances. If is can be so off about P3 selling less than 3DW, why should I have faith it's ratios are any more accurate?

3D World is a special case because its preorders opened extremely late for COMG. If it had opened about a week earlier, it likely would've ended up around 80 or so points.

Im starting to understand where your confused. This isnt for lifetime predictions and legs, its only for First Week Sales predictions.

Edit: Slightly misread, Your missing the fact of the ratio. Not ever game with more points sells better than a game with less. Its the points vs FW sales ratio.

Your just not understanding it at all.

Love this thread!!!!!! I knew it was going to sell well because I actually showed it to someone who knew nothing about it until i showed it to him and the reaction was great!!!

Hey T bone put that crow on my thread too please and thanks

SPLATOON ALMOST HERE!!!

It's not a good thing. Japan isn't exactly the most thriving of gaming countries. Less than 5% of games selling 200K isn't good on P3, it's bad on Japan.

I do criticize others. You guys are clearly in no position to predict concrete numbers either. Especially with how unrealistically generous your expectations are.

[WiiU] Mario Kart 8 - 259pt - 5/2014 - FW: 325,892

[WiiU] Super Smash Bros. Wii U - 251pt - 11/2014 - FW: 227,527

[WiiU] New Super Mario Bros U - 200pt - 12/2012 - FW: 163,528

[WIU] Splatoon - 5 days before release - 111pt - 5/2015

[WiiU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate. - 75pt - 12/2012 - FW: 106,388

[WIU] Pikmin 3 - 74pt - 7/2013 - FW: 92,720

[WiiU] Dragon Quest X v3 - 71pt - 4/2015 - FW: 98,323

[WiiU] Xenoblade Chronicles X - 69pt - 4/2015 - FW: 85,586 (COMG doesn't include bundles)

[WiiU] Super Mario 3D World - 66pt - 11/2013 - FW: 99,588

[WiiU] Dragon Quest X v2 - 59pt - 12/2013 - FW: 70,648

[WiiU] Nintendo Land - 54pt - 12/2012 - FW: 72,127

[WiiU] Hyrule Warriors - 50pt - 8/2014 - FW: 69,090

[WiiU] Fatal Frame V - 35pt - 9/2014 - FW: 27,505

[WiiU] Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 24pt - 2/2014 - FW: 35,717

[WiiU] Wii Party U - 21pt - 10/2013 - FW: 37,321 (COMG doesn't include bundles)

[WiiU] Bayonetta 2 - 20pt - 9/2014 - FW: 38,828

[WiiU] Kirby: Rainbow Curse - 20pt - 1/2015 - FW:  32,137

[WiiU] JUST DANCE Wii U - 16pt - 4/2014 - FW:  18,403

[WiiU] Dragon Quest X v1 - 15pt - 3/2013 - FW: 33,302 (COMG doesn't include bundles)

I just wanted to add onto tbone's post to enforce my point about ranges (which wasn't responded to for whatever reason).