Do you think the console market is maturing?

I feel it is, and the current gen of game consoles will be the primary systems untill 2016 at earliest. this is based purly right now on adoption rates and game development time. both of which suggest right now a slower expasion, but still an expansion of the market as a whole. 

money for the makers of the consoles is in the games, and MS, Nintendo, and even sony are doing well enough to stick with their current console... if the ps3 had tanked, they could have left early and  started an early new gen. however much to the benifit of all gamers the ps3 and the 360 will stay neck and neck world wide swinging back and forth, and even if the 360 slides to third world wide, (could easly durring 09) MS game sales are enough to stay put. 

both the 360 and Ps3 have the tech to stay current through that period. Nintendo has a choice they could stay or in say 2011 release a new console. I feel that would be a mistake. what would work best in the Big Ns favor is to launch alongside the next microsoft console out in 2016 as my bet. 

a leanghted console life would also add to legitimacy in the view of newer gamers and parents of younger gamers, by not obsolting their purchase frequently. 

developers would be happy because they would begain to recoup costs of early releases even failures with the ability to use dev tools and reourse archives developed durring a long stretch.

It would also allow for new technology to be so diffrent you see a significant differance between this gen and the next gen

2016 before new consoles? Not gonna happen. All 3 companies are already planning their next console and if one of them bypasses the next cycle, they'll be crushed by whoever comes out with the next new thing.

Not even the mighty PS2 would stand a chance of competing with Wii and X360 if Sony decided to stay with it instead of release a PS3.

he's not saying one will bypass a cycle...he's saying they ALL will bypass it

as long as none of them release a new console, they can continue to push out the release of the next one...they can work on their new console to be ready if one announces a release, but otherwise just keep iterating it internally and making money off their current consoles and games

releasing a new console means lost money for sony/ms as they lose money on new consoles...they make money on games and the last years of a console's life

i think if nintendo had gone the way of ps360, there would be a chance of a lengthened cycle, but the wii will force ps360 to upgrade as they aren't gonna sit around for 10 years missing out on a shot at 95% of consumers...they are gonna release a new console with improved controls and a focus/marketing on casuals/nongamers

In 2010/2011 hardware technology will have advanced to the point where you should be able to produce a system which is 8 to 12 times as powerful as the PS3/XBox 360 and sell it for $200 to $300. At the same time the game development costs to take advantage of this additional processing power will not be that much higher than current development costs (for PC, PS3 and XBox 360 games) because games will (mostly) just be using more refined versions of the same graphical techniques they are using today. In rough terms I would expect that most games would have a similar look to what you would see from a PS3/XBox 360 game if it was running at 30fps at a resolution of 480p except these games will run at 60fps at 1080p (with 16xAA and 16xAF); the overall effect will be very similar to a CG movie that has been produced in the past couple of years.

At least one of the companies will take advantage of this inexpensive and powerful technology and release a console in 2010/2011 which will dramatically change the dynamics of the market; they will be able to combine all the things people like about each of the systems on the market today (Wiimote, Blu-Ray, XBox Live, etc.) in one inexpensive package which will force their competition to respond.

Nintendo, Sega and now MIcrosoft Consoles only last up to 5 to 6 years. The PS consoles are the only exception to the rule which last 10 years each.

Except for the Gameboy, NES, and SNES ...
Wait, doesn't that imply that the console which leads a generation by a wide margin last 10 years?

 I certainly hope you mean on a combined global scale and not terrirtorial?  Nintendo supported the NES for almost 20 years in Japan.   12 in the US.  SNES lasted 9 years. 

And you can only claim 1 Sony console to last 10 years given that the PS2 hasn't been out for 10 years yet (granted it's likely to still have some sales at that point).

I think that Nintendo should have made the Wii just a little more powerful for more staying power. It is true that graphics are not the be all and end all of a game, but it certainly is a big and important component of a game along side gameplay. If gameplay was the only factor I would not have moved from my NES to a newer generation console.

But I think the Wii will still sell well up to 2010+.