| RolStoppable said: We can add this one to the pile of your failed predictions. |
Nope.

What will be the PS4 marketshare lifetime in Italy? | |||
| 70% or less | 7 | 16.67% | |
| 75% | 4 | 9.52% | |
| 80% | 10 | 23.81% | |
| 85% | 4 | 9.52% | |
| 90% or more | 17 | 40.48% | |
| Total: | 42 | ||
| RolStoppable said: We can add this one to the pile of your failed predictions. |
Nope.

90% lifetime looks excessive even in a PS-centric gaming market like Italy: from what I see around, stores still give XBone and Wii U shelf space, although less than to PS4, this means that they still have reasons to do it. I don't know who could be the average XBOne Italian gamer, but I know that parents that have at least a small interest in gaming generally still consider Nintendo the most reliable game company for the youngest kids, even if they and their elder children prefer other platforms, this alone secures Ninty at least a small, but almost indestructible baseline. Add to this Ninty fans, plus, since Wii, people that buy Ninty for its fitness games and the result is that Ninty can become niche during its worst gens, but a total defeat is very difficult. MS OTOH can avoid total defeat with the brute force of its money.
So, if PS4 already exceeded 70% and it's still growing, I can see it rising up to ~80%, but 90% looks unlikely, not because it couldn't have excellent sales, but because it becomes more and more difficult to reach a market share higher than the previous one, purely for mathematical reasons.
Let's do some maths, then: if, for example, competitors sell 2M overall lifetime (numbers chosen for simplicity, totally unrelated with Italian sales numbers), you need to sell 8M to reach 80% lifetime, but if you want to reach 90%, you'll need to more than double your sales, to 18M, because in this case those 2M sold by competitors must be just 10% of the total.
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