Wii Fit will do poorly in western countries where videogames are still viewed as toys and the consumers are price conscious. I can imagine that Wii Fit will be considerably pricier than other games with included peripherals.

Although I'm not gonna buy that game, I do get the impression that Western countries are becoming "increasing health aware". I guess this will help transform into more sales. In addition, it was announced that Wii Fit will be sold A$149 in Australia, which is around £69 in pounds. So it's £30 more expensive than the typical Wii game, although decent marketing may persuade consumers to buy it regardless.

As for the supply constraints in NA, I get the feeling that Wii shipments arrive fortnightly, hence you have yo-yoing sales in the past weeks. 

it was obviously a joke argument to anyone who knows crazzy...i only posted about 12 other arguments in this thread where i put more thought into it

rocketpig,

a) there is nothing 'quirky' about a virtual trainer...people have used workout videos for years in US/Europe and this is simply a more interactive video...they pay 20-30 for each one of those on one topic...this is 70 for multiple topics (strength, yoga, etc) that actually helps ensure you do the workout CORRECTLY (this is huge) and will also serve to motivate you and track your progress, unlike a video

b) people pay well over 320+tax for workout machines all the time...$500 for treadmills, ab rowing machines, etc

The thing is that people can walk into a store and buy the workout machine device they want. That won't happen with a Wii + Wii Fit. The Wii is very hard to find and Wii Fit is not a real workout. It will have a surge as people get excited by the idea of the device but once it is realized that people don't lose weight while using the machine coupled with the difficulty in finding a Wii in a store, I think that the "game" will quickly fade into obscurity in the west.

Time will tell who is right about this.

would fit suck, hell for me it sucks balls, if I want to work out then I'll work out, but when I come home after work the last thing I wanna do is stand in front of my tv and act like a dick, instead I wanna lay back and play my games with minimal movements and simply relax, but this is just me of course. :)

Could Wiifit possibliby suck. Answer is yes.
In terms of probability of success. Answer is also yes.