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Forums - Gaming Discussion - The financials behind Nintendo going 3rd party

If it were to happen (not saying it will), but if it were to happen it would probably happen like this:

1.) Smartphone games becomes a big, maybe even central part of Nintendo's profits on a yearly basis. Single smartphone hits can earn up to $1 million/day, it's not a reach that maybe 5-6 different Nintendo IP could rack in $300-$500+ million/year for Nintendo. That would show there's a large market of people who want Nintendo games outside of just Nintendo hardware owners.

2.) The NX doesn't do so great and their traditional hardware model continues to decline. Handhelds continue to have their market base eaten away, they're unable to come up with a miracle gimmick for their next console variant/iteration, etc. In that case unified platform will help them but it won't be a silver bullet that saves them.

In that scenario I think Nintendo would consider stepping down from dedicated hardware to push their IP to the widest possible user base.

I guess the crux of the situation is this: are people willing to carry around a seperate dedicated gaming handheld in today's day and age ... and the answer to that is increasingly becoming no, so that's a big problem. If they don't have a bedrock foundation with portables to lean on, their track record with consoles is way too spotty to bank the entire company on. Even in a Fusion setup, the handheld has to be the one that carries the load and drives adoption. 



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sc94597 said:
vivster said:
Sometimes it's not about what's the most financially viable solution but what's the right thing to do. So get on it Nintendo, stop holding everying dear to gamers hostage.

If Nintendo went third party expect all of their IP's that don't sell > 2 million to not be used. The only reason why they make games in those franchises right now is so that they can sell more consoles with platform diversity. So if people are angry with Nintendo only making Mario, Pokemon, etc expect that to be 1000 times worse if they went third-party. 

That doesn't make any sense. Nintendo is a software company. Why would they make less games suddenly when that's their main stream of income?

Since their biggest IPs will get even bigger on multiplat, they should have enough funds to make as many games as they want. To say that Nintendo only makes games to sell hardware is a pretty cynical way to look at it.

What you're basically saying is that all of Nintendo's smaller games are losing them money.



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vivster said:
sc94597 said:
vivster said:
Sometimes it's not about what's the most financially viable solution but what's the right thing to do. So get on it Nintendo, stop holding everying dear to gamers hostage.

If Nintendo went third party expect all of their IP's that don't sell > 2 million to not be used. The only reason why they make games in those franchises right now is so that they can sell more consoles with platform diversity. So if people are angry with Nintendo only making Mario, Pokemon, etc expect that to be 1000 times worse if they went third-party. 

That doesn't make any sense. Nintendo is a software company. Why would they make less games suddenly when that's their main stream of income?

Since their biggest IPs will get even bigger on multiplat, they should have enough funds to make as many games as they want. To say that Nintendo only makes games to sell hardware is a pretty cynical way to look at it.

What you're basically saying is that all of Nintendo's smaller games are losing them money.

They only make/publish niche games to sell hardware, was what I was saying. Why would Nintendo invest in Fatal Frame, Bayonetta etc  - when they can invest in vastly more profitable games? The answer is: to diversify their library, and sell hardware so that their big series can sell to more people as well. Games like Fatal Frame and Bayonetta will lose them money unless they have another purpose besides the revenue they make exceeding the costs to make them. They invest in these games because they know that there might be future benefits for doing so. This isn't excessively cynical at all. It's the reality of the matter. 



sc94597 said:

They only make/publish niche games to sell hardware, was what I was saying. Why would Nintendo invest in Fatal Frame, Bayonetta etc  - when they can invest in vastly more profitable games? The answer is: to diversify their library, and sell hardware so that their big series can sell to more people as well. Games like Fatal Frame and Bayonetta will lose them money unless they have another purpose besides the revenue they make exceeding the costs to make them. They invest in these games because they know that there might be future benefits for doing so. This isn't excessively cynical at all. It's the reality of the matter. 

So what? These are Non-Nintendo IPs. If they don't pick them up somebody else will. I mean there are still 2 other platform holders desperate to sell their hardware. And if no one picks them up they're obviously not worth it. The absence of these niche IPs will not be noticeable. Or do you miss the thousands of other dormant niche IPs that Nintendo hasn't been picked up yet?



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

vivster said:
sc94597 said:

They only make/publish niche games to sell hardware, was what I was saying. Why would Nintendo invest in Fatal Frame, Bayonetta etc  - when they can invest in vastly more profitable games? The answer is: to diversify their library, and sell hardware so that their big series can sell to more people as well. Games like Fatal Frame and Bayonetta will lose them money unless they have another purpose besides the revenue they make exceeding the costs to make them. They invest in these games because they know that there might be future benefits for doing so. This isn't excessively cynical at all. It's the reality of the matter. 

So what? These are Non-Nintendo IPs. If they don't pick them up somebody else will. I mean there are still 2 other platform holders desperate to sell their hardware. And if no one picks them up they're obviously not worth it. The absence of these niche IPs will not be noticeable. Or do you miss the thousands of other dormant niche IPs that Nintendo hasn't been picked up yet?

Nintendo owns the Fatal Frame IP now. And nobody was picking Bayonetta 2 up, it was left to die. But even then with their smaller IP's there will be opportunity costs involved, which tell them, for example, that making another Mario spinoff game will net them more profit than making a new IP like Splatoon or a fourth Pikmin game. Since they have to care much less about market saturation in this case (as long as the games play differently) you should expect a few uses of their smaller IP's and more uses of their best-selling IP's. Capcom does it. Activision does. EA does. Square-Enix does it. Sega does it. Ubisoft does it. Practically every big named publisher does this. We'd probably see Metroid, Star Fox, etc once every five - ten years or so (assuming sales remained at their current lows) meanwhile Mario and Pokemon would definitely get two (or more games per year.) 



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sc94597 said:

Nintendo owns the Fatal Frame IP now. And nobody was picking Bayonetta 2 up, it was left to die. But even then with their smaller IP's there will be opportunity costs involved, which tell them, for example, that making another Mario spinoff game will net them more profit than making a new IP like Splatoon or a fourth Pikmin game. Since they have to care much less about market saturation in this case (as long as the games play differently) you should expect a few uses of their smaller IP's and more uses of their best-selling IP's. Capcom does it. Activision does. EA does. Square-Enix does it. Sega does it. Ubisoft does it. Practically every big named publisher does this. We'd probably see Metroid, Star Fox, etc once every five - ten years or so (assuming sales remained at their current lows) meanwhile Mario and Pokemon would definitely get two (or more games per year.) 

That's the first time someone said that Nintendo is as greedy as Ubisoft and EA. I present you with the Medal of Equality for that statement ;)

But back to my first point; I don't really care. All I want are the main Nintendo IPs on a platform the games deserve. Only Mario on PS4 without the smaller stuff is still better than no Mario at all.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

vivster said:
sc94597 said:

Nintendo owns the Fatal Frame IP now. And nobody was picking Bayonetta 2 up, it was left to die. But even then with their smaller IP's there will be opportunity costs involved, which tell them, for example, that making another Mario spinoff game will net them more profit than making a new IP like Splatoon or a fourth Pikmin game. Since they have to care much less about market saturation in this case (as long as the games play differently) you should expect a few uses of their smaller IP's and more uses of their best-selling IP's. Capcom does it. Activision does. EA does. Square-Enix does it. Sega does it. Ubisoft does it. Practically every big named publisher does this. We'd probably see Metroid, Star Fox, etc once every five - ten years or so (assuming sales remained at their current lows) meanwhile Mario and Pokemon would definitely get two (or more games per year.) 

That's the first time someone said that Nintendo is as greedy as Ubisoft and EA. I present you with the Medal of Equality for that statement ;)

But back to my first point; I don't really care. All I want are the main Nintendo IPs on a platform the games deserve. Only Mario on PS4 without the smaller stuff is still better than no Mario at all.

It is either delusional or an ignorance of basic microeconomics to believe that corporations are not profit-seeking firms. Of course Nintendo seeks to maximize profits. All companies do. 

As for your first point, that is only for you. I like having diverse IP's from Nintendo, as their ideas are fresh and creative. I like playing Nintendo's smaller IP's like Metroid and Xenoblade Chronicles. I like that Nintendo invested into Bayonetta 2, a highly aclaimed game by users and critics alike, and I look forward to playing it. Good for you =/= good for gamers, as you stated in the original post I quoted.



sc94597 said:

It is either delusional or an ignorance of basic microeconomics to believe that corporations are not profit-seeking firms. Of course Nintendo seeks to maximize profits. All companies do. 

As for your first point, that is only for you. I like having diverse IP's from Nintendo, as their ideas are fresh and creative. I like playing Nintendo's smaller IP's like Metroid and Xenoblade Chronicles. I like that Nintendo invested into Bayonetta 2, a highly aclaimed game by users and critics alike, and I look forward to playing it. Good for you =/= good for gamers, as you stated in the original post I quoted.

That is not entirely fair though. All of the 3 platform holders have very divers games. Nintendo isn't the owner of the holy grail of innovation. Not much would be missing if we didn't have the IPs Nintendo has invested in. Nothing noticeable at least. We still have all genres and innovation and tons of indies. Having just a few of these IPs less in a time where hundreds of new games are created every year is not nearly as big a deal as making the gaming industry more converged. Hence increasing the audience each game can get. What good are the handful of games that Nintendo buys if they're on an undesirable platform and as such will only ever be played by a minority of gamers? I mean the IPs you are talking about are even only played by a minority of Nintendo console owners while Nintendo console owners are already a minority.

Nintendo going 3rd party = good for majority of gamers. Nintendo staying small and insular = good for only a minority of gamers.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

vivster said:
sc94597 said:

It is either delusional or an ignorance of basic microeconomics to believe that corporations are not profit-seeking firms. Of course Nintendo seeks to maximize profits. All companies do. 

As for your first point, that is only for you. I like having diverse IP's from Nintendo, as their ideas are fresh and creative. I like playing Nintendo's smaller IP's like Metroid and Xenoblade Chronicles. I like that Nintendo invested into Bayonetta 2, a highly aclaimed game by users and critics alike, and I look forward to playing it. Good for you =/= good for gamers, as you stated in the original post I quoted.

That is not entirely fair though. All of the 3 platform holders have very divers games. Nintendo isn't the owner of the holy grail of innovation. Not much would be missing if we didn't have the IPs Nintendo has invested in. Nothing noticeable at least. We still have all genres and innovation and tons of indies. Having just a few of these IPs less in a time where hundreds of new games are created every year is not nearly as big a deal as making the gaming industry more converged. Hence increasing the audience each game can get. What good are the handful of games that Nintendo buys if they're on an undesirable platform and as such will only ever be played by a minority of gamers? I mean the IPs you are talking about are even only played by a minority of Nintendo console owners while Nintendo console owners are already a minority.

Nintendo going 3rd party = good for majority of gamers. Nintendo staying small and insular = good for only a minority of gamers.

Can you list me an alternative to Metroid, Pikmin, or Splatoon? I can't think of a game that is comparable. 



Teeqoz said:
the_dengle said:

You haven't convinced me of such. Their games sell pretty well on a console with under 10 million sales, and would presumably sell great on a console with 30 million. 30% more sales is not the amount needed for a huge increase in profits, it's the amount needed to break even on going third-party. A ten-million seller would have to sell at least 15 million to justify the shift. And they would lose the potential of hitting it big with a Wii-like (or even NES-like) success. Giving up the control they have over their ecosystem and the possibility of reasonably popular hardware is a risky endeavor.

The attach rate off their games would scale even if the console sold 30 million. I know Mario Kart 8 has like a 50% attach rate to the Wii U, but it wouldn't have sold 15 million if the Wii U had sold 30 million. How many 10 million sellers do Nintendo have (for home console)? I can't think of any. I can think of plenty that could be if they released them on more platforms.

You are on a damn sales website.  You don't have to think about it.  Just look it up.

1 Wii Sports Wii 2006 Sports Nintendo 82.41
2 Super Mario Bros. NES 1985 Platform Nintendo 40.24
3 Mario Kart Wii Wii 2008 Racing Nintendo 35.15
4 Wii Sports Resort Wii 2009 Sports Nintendo 32.63
5 Pokémon Red / Green / Blue Version GB 1996 Role-Playing Nintendo 31.37
6 Tetris GB 1989 Puzzle Nintendo 30.26
7 New Super Mario Bros. DS 2006 Platform Nintendo 29.66
8 Wii Play Wii 2006 Misc Nintendo 28.89
9 Duck Hunt NES 1984 Shooter Nintendo 28.31
10 New Super Mario Bros. Wii Wii 2009 Platform Nintendo 27.96
11 Nintendogs DS 2005 Simulation Nintendo 24.66
12 Mario Kart DS DS 2005 Racing Nintendo 23.12
13 Pokémon Gold / Silver Version GB 1999 Role-Playing Nintendo 23.10
14 Wii Fit Wii 2007 Sports Nintendo 22.69
15 Wii Fit Plus Wii 2009 Sports Nintendo 21.72
16 Super Mario World SNES 1990 Platform Nintendo 20.61
17 Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day DS 2005 Misc Nintendo 20.12
18 Pokémon Diamond / Pearl Version DS 2006 Role-Playing Nintendo 18.21
19 Super Mario Land GB 1989 Platform Nintendo 18.14
20 Super Mario Bros. 3 NES 1988 Platform Nintendo 17.28
21 Pokémon Ruby / Sapphire Version GBA 2002 Role-Playing Nintendo 15.85
22 Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day DS 2005 Misc Nintendo 15.29
23 Pokémon Black / White Version DS 2010 Role-Playing Nintendo 15.07
24 Pokémon Yellow: Special Pikachu Edition GB 1998 Role-Playing Nintendo 14.64
25 Pokémon X/Y 3DS 2013 Role-Playing Nintendo 12.72
26 Super Smash Bros. Brawl Wii 2008 Fighting Nintendo 12.58
27 Animal Crossing: Wild World DS 2005 Simulation Nintendo 12.09
28 Super Mario 64 N64 1996 Platform Nintendo 11.89
29 Pokémon Heart Gold / Soul Silver Version DS 2009 Role-Playing Nintendo 11.72
30 Super Mario Galaxy Wii 2007 Platform Nintendo 11.24
31 Super Mario Land 2: 6 Golden Coins GB 1992 Platform Nintendo 11.18
32 Mario Kart 7 3DS 2011 Racing Nintendo 10.64
33 Super Mario All-Stars SNES 1993 Platform Nintendo 10.55
34 Pokémon FireRed / LeafGreen Version GBA 2004 Role-Playing Nintendo 10.49
35 Super Mario 64 DS 2004 Platform Nintendo 10.25
36 Super Mario 3D Land 3DS 2011 Platform Nintendo 10.09


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