Black Ops 3 PS4.

released since 2012, Halo 4 has done 9.41m and also released in 2012, black ops II did 13.37m on PS3.

Thats on 360 and PS3 which sold similar amounts of hardware, and PS3 being the worse multiplatform version.

By the time halo 5 and black ops 3 launch, PS4 should be ahead by more than 2:1, and at the very least, PS4 wont have the worst console version of Black ops III.

people are really ignoring the difference in install bases

Yes.

X1's numbers outside of US/UK are terrible. Not merely bad, but absolutely terrible. 360 at least did mediocre numbers in EU/RoW, which was enough to boost up things a bit.

Halo 5 will probably do 85%-90% or so of its business in the US and UK alone.

In the US, I would expect H5 to win vs. PS4 COD 2015 only. COD X1 + PS4 of course will utterly dominate Halo 5 globally.

It's been a long time since Halo 4, and I think the dropoff will be shocking compared to past entries. It should still sell 'well', but it's no longer the hot franchise it was back in the day. Original Halo fans have kids and careers now and may not even think or know that it's still alive. 360 FPS fans may have largely moved on to COD (which is showing a big slide of its own, but remember : COD reached heights that made Halo look like a niche title).

With Halo 4 : you had a peaking mid-gen console with dominant marketshare in the US and UK, competitive numbers in RoW, Europe, and even niche status in Japan. Fans of Halo had already purchased the console to play Halo 3, and the gap in time wasn't massive between those releases, they had a 'strike while hot' succession of releases.

With Halo 5 : you have a relatively early-gen console with 2nd place marketshare even in their top markets, and near total irrelevance outside of those two countries.

H5 : Maybe 5M LTD, 4.5M in US/UK. Unknown % of those that will be bundled.

Halo 5 WW > BO3 PS4 WW

Halo 5 will end at around 9 million assuming Halo 6 doesn't come out until until 2018. BO3 will end at around 7 million WW.

Both XB1 and PS4 sku's of BO3 combined will crush Halo 5.

I'll go with Halo 5

I agree but I guess since PS4 doesn't really have anything that can match Halo 5's sales this year we need a game that can. 

AW is going to end up over 10m on PS4 alone.  You think BO3 will heavily decline never mind grow?  

I'm not wrong because neither has happened.  

AW PS4 will easily beat halo 4. What makes you think BO3 won't beat halo 5? It has a lot more going for it.  

Wanna elaborate on why you think that?  I think the opposite but I'm just curious what's behind your reasoning.