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Forums - Gaming - (EDIT: Nope, I'm wrong) I'm worried about another video game crash

Tagged games:

 

Will the video game market crash?

Yes! Prepare to take shelter! 10 12.82%
 
Probably, but it's a few years out. 20 25.64%
 
Maybe. It's hard to say right now. 22 28.21%
 
Unlikely, It won't crash for a while. 15 19.23%
 
Never! Video games are fine! 11 14.10%
 
Total:78
Sentient_Nebula on 22 February 2015
vivster said:
Sentient_Nebula said:
This is exactly what I though people would say, saying the market is too big to crash.

Remember that in 1983, the market was also bigger than it had ever been.

No market is immune to crashes, no matter how big it is. It simply makes the process take longer.

Please don't compare a multimillion dollar market with a multibillion dollar market.

And how do you think a crash can happen "slowly"? If there is some kind of slow recession in the market, then it will adapt. I doubt the market could crash even if it wanted to. There are hundreds of millions of people in this world who will not live their lives without digital games. How can the market crash if there is so much demand?

That bold one is just completely wrong. There are several markets that can't crash because they provide necessities like food, clothing, transportation, internet, housing, etc. Video games are part of these necessities as are movies and music.

When I said "It simply makes the process take longer" I was reffering to the factors of a crash, not the crash itself.

And a crash does not mean the market goes away. It simply means that people have found alternative sources for their gaming needs. As I mentioned, with mobile games being that alternative source for many people.

A crash as big as the 1983 one is pretty much impossible. But a significant drop can still happen.



"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."

-Samuel Clemens

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Kelzus on 22 February 2015

The market won't ever "crash", although we could do with a few select companies going out of business imo



PieToast on 22 February 2015
Sentient_Nebula said:
PieToast said:

I can understand if someone brought up the idea that bad business trends might shift the market into something different for better or worse. But a crash that is equal to the 1983 crash is not possible.

Sure, these changes could happen without a crash, but I think that's unlikely. If the bad trends are profitable now, why should companies change them?

I also doubt we'll see a crash as large as the 1983 one. A 95% drop is insane. Regardless, I think a significant drop in revenue could occur. Even a 10% or 20% drop (within a short timespan) could be considered a crash.

Then why bring it up in the first place? You probably used the 1983 crash as a point of reference but there are more dynamics to take into consideration comparing a multibillion market with a multimillion dollar market.

You should adjust your tinfoil hat, good sir.

Edited for funzzies 



.- -... -.-. -..

Chazore on 22 February 2015
generic-user-1 said:

they lost battlefield, they lost medal of honor, they lost the pc wing of EA allmost completly after some stupid shit.  Titanfall couldnt life up to the hype(i realy like the game but it will not be a stable succes) and dragon age isnt new and im realy not sure if it will sell more than the first.

Don't forget how they basically killed off C&C, RA3 was good but not breaking records or setting new trends (I personally love it to this day) and came out back in 2008, C&C 4 fucked up and went many steps back and fucked with the storyline and gave it a bad conclusion, then they tried with generals 2 when they fired the remaining staff that split from Westwood and worked with EA and tried to form Bioware Victory game studios which they also shut down when they suddenly killed off Generals 2, since then we've not had anything going on with C&C, the last decent game was way back in 2008 and it's 2015 now.

 

Safe to say EA let C&C die, they may somehow still have the rights but it's effectively dead in the water along with RTS games like it in general not being enarly as popular which I'd blame a small portion on EA for letting C&C decline in quality.



Mankind, in its arrogance and self-delusion, must believe they are the mirrors to God in both their image and their power. If something shatters that mirror, then it must be totally destroyed.

vivster on 22 February 2015
Sentient_Nebula said:
vivster said:
Sentient_Nebula said:
This is exactly what I though people would say, saying the market is too big to crash.

Remember that in 1983, the market was also bigger than it had ever been.

No market is immune to crashes, no matter how big it is. It simply makes the process take longer.

Please don't compare a multimillion dollar market with a multibillion dollar market.

And how do you think a crash can happen "slowly"? If there is some kind of slow recession in the market, then it will adapt. I doubt the market could crash even if it wanted to. There are hundreds of millions of people in this world who will not live their lives without digital games. How can the market crash if there is so much demand?

That bold one is just completely wrong. There are several markets that can't crash because they provide necessities like food, clothing, transportation, internet, housing, etc. Video games are part of these necessities as are movies and music.

When I said "It simply makes the process take longer" I was reffering to the factors of a crash, not the crash itself.

And a crash does not mean the market goes away. It simply means that people have found alternative sources for their gaming needs. As I mentioned, with mobile games being that alternative source for many people.

A crash as big as the 1983 one is pretty much impossible. But a significant drop can still happen.

If consumers simply transition to other devices that's not a video games market crash. That's just a shift in means.

Older technologies fade out all the time. Look at the mobile market. Smartphone sales are crushing legacy phones in developed countries. Yet I heard no one talking about a "legacy phone market crash".



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

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onionberry on 22 February 2015

Nintendo is ready, again.

.



binary solo on 22 February 2015

If by video game crash you mean traditional home console model crash then yes that will happen because streaming AAA games will become a thing, and the ability to stream games will become a feature of many entertainment devices



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

generic-user-1 on 22 February 2015
Sentient_Nebula said:
vivster said:
Sentient_Nebula said:
This is exactly what I though people would say, saying the market is too big to crash.

Remember that in 1983, the market was also bigger than it had ever been.

No market is immune to crashes, no matter how big it is. It simply makes the process take longer.

Please don't compare a multimillion dollar market with a multibillion dollar market.

And how do you think a crash can happen "slowly"? If there is some kind of slow recession in the market, then it will adapt. I doubt the market could crash even if it wanted to. There are hundreds of millions of people in this world who will not live their lives without digital games. How can the market crash if there is so much demand?

That bold one is just completely wrong. There are several markets that can't crash because they provide necessities like food, clothing, transportation, internet, housing, etc. Video games are part of these necessities as are movies and music.

When I said "It simply makes the process take longer" I was reffering to the factors of a crash, not the crash itself.

And a crash does not mean the market goes away. It simply means that people have found alternative sources for their gaming needs. As I mentioned, with mobile games being that alternative source for many people.

A crash as big as the 1983 one is pretty much impossible. But a significant drop can still happen.

the process could be faster this time, its easy to get 2m$ for some new games even if the market isnt doing great, but 200m$? and the structures now are way different, the companys could mask a decline for some time and than collapse.  

GM alone was bigger than the entire gaming market, and lost allmost 40b$ in one year, there is no such thing as to big to fail.



Mythmaker1 on 22 February 2015

Nope.

The circumstances that led to the crash in the 80's simply don't exist right now, and neither do the factors that allowed them to spiral out of control.. The size and breadth of the market simply does not allow for the kind of implosion that took down the entire market back then.



I believe in honesty, civility, generosity, practicality, and impartiality.

Sentient_Nebula on 22 February 2015
PieToast said:
Sentient_Nebula said:
PieToast said:

I can understand if someone brought up the idea that bad business trends might shift the market into something different for better or worse. But a crash that is equal to the 1983 crash is not possible.

Sure, these changes could happen without a crash, but I think that's unlikely. If the bad trends are profitable now, why should companies change them?

I also doubt we'll see a crash as large as the 1983 one. A 95% drop is insane. Regardless, I think a significant drop in revenue could occur. Even a 10% or 20% drop (within a short timespan) could be considered a crash.

Then why bring it up in the first place? You probably used the 1983 crash as a point of reference but there are more dynamics to take into consideration comparing a multibillion market with a multimillion dollar market.

You should adjust your tinfoil hat, good sir.

Edited for funzzies 

I'm using 1983 as a reference because the same key factors that caused it are starting to line up again, not because the crash would be of the same scope. Yes, you're right, that there are more factors involved that would make a crash as large very unlikely.

Also, The video game market was a technically multibillion market in 1983. A $7 billion one (when adjusted for inflation... $3 billion without).



"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."

-Samuel Clemens