Many would think that the casuals did not contribute much at all to the REAL video games industry. Remember that much money came from "casuals" to not only Nintendo, but also Ubisoft (Just Dance, Imagine series) Activision (Guitarr Hero, Skylanders), and MS (Kinect games). These games were small in production costs and high in profit.
If the home console market is contracting (casuals leaving) from around 260 millions (Wii - 100, PS3- 80, X360 - 80) to about 160 millions (PS4- 80, XB1 - 60, WiiU - 20) then this will have implications troughout the video-games industry. Games will have to have higher production values = higher costs, selling to a smaller, but demanding, audience.
With the "traditional" handheld market contracting even more (NDS - 150, PSP - 80 => 3DS - 50, PSV - 10) more of the easy "casual" money is disappearing from the industry (going to mobile games).
The ones that are left supporting much of the REAL video game industry is the sports crowd: if FIFA/Madden/NBA/NHL people can get the same or better experience somewhere else then the video games industry as we know it is dead.
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