Erm... Wii Sports, Wii play , Wii Fit... pick one and I bet it will outsell MK:Wii (obviously it depends on what you class as 'sell' as to which you pick.

With PS3, GT5 is sure to be the bestseller due to PS3s European presence... GTAIV might be near it though.... I doubt much else will come close to those two (If Crazzy enters here... no MGS4, FFXII, other games you list will not come close to these two)

wiis best selling exclusive is called wiisports. that is no racer.

GT5 will no doubt move a shitload of PS3s especially in Europe, but I think won't make it to GT4 levels.

MKWii on the other hand is pretty much a given; Mario Kart can be considered both casual and hardcore ( like SSBB ). 

GT5 has reached new LEVEL of VISUALS, which will APPEAL to FAR more people.
http://www.gametrailers.com/player/28974.html

GT5 is not limited by the number of PS3's that happen to have owners upon the game's launch. GT games are the kind that gets purchased throughout the entire gen. GT 3 platinum briefly made it to the top 20 in Norway a year back!

Do I see a pattern here? =)))

I think GT5 does have a nice chance of passing GT4, and is the only PS3 game I think has a chance at 10 million sales (I am not sure how GTA4 will be split between console so perhaps that too, but i doubt it)

That game is only bringin one new thing on the table: new LEVEL of STUPID fanboyism for people who only judge a book by its cover... FAR MORE PEOPLE won't think like these fanboys this gen, and that's a good thing for the whole industry...

All new graphics do is appeal to the most hardcore of gamers who are superficial. In actuality, this will only APPEAL to a FAR more specific group.

 I believe GT5 will match its predecessor, but not GT3. MK should do much better than DD as long as its not just MarioBoys buying them :))))

PHOTOREALISTIC graphics APPEAL to ALL, Casuals TOO.

EAT THAT -> http://www.gametrailers.com/player/28974.html