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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Wii U+3DS HW Sales 2015>2014

 

Do you agree?

NO! 63 26.25%
 
Yes! 174 72.50%
 
Total:237
FromDK said:

Yes.. "not a bad sign" (as in this case means a 15% ingrease ww last year) do not in any way garante double sales.. But it has to start somewhere

And to the "wishful thinking about casuals" please answer theese 2 question.. then I think you see what i mean

Do you believe that a lot of 6-15 year and 15+ more casual..  Will end up buy/get a 8 gen console (Ps4 One or wiiU)  ?

If yes.. why do you think they did'nt get one in 2014 ?

(can you see my point.. The casuals.. eventully will come to gen 8.. (and choose Ps4, One or WiiU.. even so they all was out in 2014)

Depends what you mean by casual and what you mean by a lot.  Would you characterize the Gamecube as having a lot of those casuals?  If so, then yeah.  If you mean people who bought Madden and Call of Duty on the PS3/360, then yeah.  If you mean the Wii that allowed games like Just Dance, Carnival Games, Mario & Sonic, Guitar Hero, etc to be multi-million sellers, then no.

They didn't get one in 2014 because of either prices still being too high or software they are interested in not being out yet.

FromDK said:

Don't think few % matter that much.. but ok.

3% ekstra in the west.. (3% of 3,017 mill) is 90.510

Japan down 25% (25% of 0,611 mill) is 152.750

So my headmath was a litle to low.. (that's why I said.. 107% in the next post becourse i knew that was more than enurf)

BUT.. here it come.. The 100% correct %.. (West has to be up if japan is down 25%.. for  a double sale ww) ... 105%

What do you think is realistic how many % (if all goes well.. new ammibo game.. splatoon rocks.. Mariomaker.. all (we know) goes  well) ?

So, in doing those calculations did you notice what your end result is?  Did you notice that it is not double?  In order for 2015 to double 2014, sales need to double worldwide.  It isn't only a matter of Japan being down, it is also Japan not doubling its sales.  Therefore the west doesn't just have to make up for the 153k, but also the 611k from Japan not doubling.

FromDK said:

Like i said.. for really to belive WiiU will get a super year.. It offcourse has to be up in januer (show good sign) i would say 10-20% up.

Yes this is still for the hole year..  So yes.. Some month have to be more than 100%.. and 1 or 2 could even be down (examble MK8 month)

Seriously?  10-20% up in January would be a good sign that it will double YoY?  If the 2015 Wii U with Mario Kart and Smash can only post modest gains over the 2014 Wii U without either one, how can you expect it to manage more than double the rest of the year?

FromDK said:

I only say that (imo) WiiU has the best value for them (best games, price. free internet, amiibo compitabel.. and so)

And I do expect a pricecut this year.. ? (but WiiU could be up without)

People have been banging the best games and free internet drums since 2012, and we haven't seen a significant effect yet.  Not sure I'd classify Amiibo compatibility as value.  More like the opposite.  Not to say it can't sell any consoles though.  You said you held to your prediction even without a price cut.



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Yakuzaice said:

1. Depends what you mean by casual

2. and what you mean by a lot. 

3. Would you characterize the Gamecube as having a lot of those casuals?  If so, then yeah.  If you mean people who bought Madden and Call of Duty on the PS3/360, then yeah. If you mean the Wii that allowed games like Just Dance, Carnival Games, Mario & Sonic, Guitar Hero, etc to be multi-million sellers, then no.

4. They didn't get one in 2014 because of either prices still being too high or software they are interested in not being out yet.

1. The ones not thinking about a 8 gen console yet.. Or atleast not see enough value to buy one. (mostly kids and.. +15 not in to fps or very big /complex games)

2 That a bigger % of the people buying a console in 2015 will be "casuals" (lots of millions)

3. No.. even so GC was cheap (and offcourse got some of them) PS2 got allmost all of them. (and that's who I mean.. the people who got a ps2 becourse of dvd, eyetoy, singstar, buzz, G hero.. and the other "casual" games on ps2.. The ones where a lot of them choosed Wii next gen.

 (Yes PS3 offcourse still had a lot of casual fans.. And MS got theire share to.. mostly thanks to kinnect)

4. Yes.. my point.. "value"

 

Yakuzaice said:

So, in doing those calculations did you notice what your end result is?  Did you notice that it is not double?  In order for 2015 to double 2014, sales need to double worldwide.  It isn't only a matter of Japan being down, it is also Japan not doubling its sales.  Therefore the west doesn't just have to make up for the 153k, but also the 611k from Japan not doubling.

Yes I forgot to double Japan.. and you are corect about the math (doh)

 

Yakuzaice said:

Seriously?  10-20% up in January would be a good sign that it will double YoY?  If the 2015 Wii U with Mario Kart and Smash can only post modest gains over the 2014 Wii U without either one, how can you expect it to manage more than double the rest of the year?

No.. It a good sign for better momentum..

I expect better sales becourse: 

1. I believe we will see more "casuals" joining gen 8 in 2015

2. I think WiiU will get a good share of them

 

Yakuzaice said:

1. People have been banging the best games and free internet drums since 2012

2. and we haven't seen a significant effect yet. 

3. Not sure I'd classify Amiibo compatibility as value.  More like the opposite.  Not to say it can't sell any consoles though. 

4. You said you held to your prediction even without a price cut.

1. Yes they have.

2. And yes.. no big effect yet

3. Amiibo compitabel is a value (imo.. first becourse it's "new" and second becourse competition doesn'e have it)

4. I said that I expected a  pricecut in 2015.. (as in i belive there will be one) But that it was not neded for wiiU to do better.

 

 

I think you know what i mean now.. (you do not agree) but you know why I think the "double" is posible.

And I know why you think it will not happen.

 

So shall we agree.. That it will be interesting to see.. how this 2015 is going to be.. And whats up for e3..