let me give you the rundown.

1. kirby games have rarely sold less than a million. ever. this is at a budget price (39.99) and seeing the wonders that has done for toad, rainbow curse will reach one million by the end of the year almost without doubt (as will captain toad, which is already at 430k and likely more, around 500k, with all the figures from europe). look it up. kirby sells no matter what. even shitty kirby games like kirby air ride? yup. 1m+. and this will be a good one.

2. no mario party has ever sold less than 1m. EVER. not on gamecube, not on n64 (obviously), not on wii. ever. (mario party advance is undertracked here, nintendo confirmed 1m+ sold). if you think this won't sell, especially with the amiibo focus ("amiibo party") and a whole line of amiibo built around it... well...

3. splatoon is an unknown quantity, but the hype for this game is real. we'll see.

4. yoshi games sell, see point #1. kirby's epic yarn was a fan favorite, this is a sequel from a beloved developer whose games for nintendo have never sold less than 1m. again, ever.

5. mario maker's closest point of comparison is mario paint. if they distribute this intelligently (digital and physical, but really pushing digital and the online connectivity and sharing aspect with a set of pre-created levels) and price it at 39.99 or 49.99, it will sell like hotcakes.

6. this is very perceptive of you, but xenoblade chronicles sold 800k+ while being available only at gamestop. now it will receive a wide release. the people who bought it on wii were the hardest of the "hard core," and those are the same people who bought a wii u right away. this game will do 1m, especially after the reviews it's going to get.

7. zelda will sell a million in the first week, not the first two. pre-orders for zelda games are routinely 500k+, even for relatively low-selling installments (skyward sword, for example). this is a completely new direction for the series. it'll do at least as well as 3d world, probably a little better.

ot: hyrule warriors by march, that game is steamrolling to 1m. lego city undercover will eventually, but sales will slow with the holidays over. pikmin 3 will too, once supply issues are resolved. these last two have already already sold 1m+ retail+digital, tho. reggie says digital sales are usually between 10%-20% of sales. assuming just 11%, both are at 1m.

let me give you the rundown.

1. kirby games have rarely sold less than a million. ever. this is at a budget price (39.99) and seeing the wonders that has done for toad, rainbow curse will reach one million by the end of the year almost without doubt (as will captain toad, which is already at 430k and likely more, around 500k, with all the figures from europe). look it up. kirby sells no matter what. even shitty kirby games like kirby air ride? yup. 1m+. and this will be a good one.

2. no mario party has ever sold less than 1m. EVER. not on gamecube, not on n64 (obviously), not on wii. ever. (mario party advance is undertracked here, nintendo confirmed 1m+ sold). if you think this won't sell, especially with the amiibo focus ("amiibo party") and a whole line of amiibo built around it... well...

3. splatoon is an unknown quantity, but the hype for this game is real. we'll see.

4. yoshi games sell, see point #1. kirby's epic yarn was a fan favorite, this is a sequel from a beloved developer whose games for nintendo have never sold less than 1m. again, ever.

5. mario maker's closest point of comparison is mario paint. if they distribute this intelligently (digital and physical, but really pushing digital and the online connectivity and sharing aspect with a set of pre-created levels) and price it at 39.99 or 49.99, it will sell like hotcakes.

6. this is very perceptive of you, but xenoblade chronicles sold 800k+ while being available only at gamestop. now it will receive a wide release. the people who bought it on wii were the hardest of the "hard core," and those are the same people who bought a wii u right away. this game will do 1m, especially after the reviews it's going to get.

7. zelda will sell a million in the first week, not the first two. pre-orders for zelda games are routinely 500k+, even for relatively low-selling installments (skyward sword, for example). this is a completely new direction for the series. it'll do at least as well as 3d world, probably a little better.

ot: hyrule warriors by march, that game is steamrolling to 1m. lego city undercover will eventually, but sales will slow with the holidays over. pikmin 3 will too, once supply issues are resolved. these last two have already already sold 1m+ retail+digital, tho. reggie says digital sales are usually between 10%-20% of sales. assuming just 11%, both are at 1m.

vivster said:

So you're agreeing with me that Zelda will reach the million first out of those games?

nope, hyrule warriors will get there first, right after tropical freeze. the question was not which 2015 game will sell 1m first, it was which will be the 10th. and that will be hyrule.

Yeah that's why I said "out of those games" i.e. the ones that the discussion was mainly about.

I think Mario Maker will sell quite well honestly. Much more than Splatoon or Xenoblade. Probably more than both combined. 

It would be neat if Nintendo over allowed you to use amiibos to "unlock" sprite versions of amiibos for Mario Maker (ie: 8-bit Samus, 8-bit Link, even 8-bit versions of newer characters like Fox and Wii Fit Trainer).

Yes...that would be pretty cool.  Would be even cooler if each came with their native move sets.  Would be even cooler if they also added their own tile sets.  Would be even cooler if Nintendo just gave us the keys to the Nintendo NES game factory and got out of the way.  User generated instant classics...and penises, of course.