So here we have a really difficult market to predict on, we don't really have any sources or previous sales to look back on or any new numbers released by Microsoft.

I will try to make a guess anyway and in the end it will be interesting to see if I am close or not. :)

For X1 I will use the 100K that they sold on launch as some kind of base for my guess, and use the 100K x 10 years (which I guess the consoles could last) so that gives me 1 million in lifetime sales for China.

For PS4 I will try to use tgbus as some kind of indicator. The current SKU they have on the website has sold of 200 units, and give the same number to the other SKU (EU/JP) and I have 600 units sold by this shop, in one year. And if I pretend that 600 units equals 600K for an actually released console nationwide it would mean 600K x 10 years. Which gives me 6 millions in lifetime sales for China.

And if I look at popularity among the "underground" console market, the PSV, 3DS, PSP and PS4 are the most popular choices, in that order. After them the Wii, PS3 and X360 are all more popular than DS, X1 and Wii U. So if I go by this indicator I think that PS4 should sell better than X1.

There's also the price point, the PS4 is cheaper than X1, even though the Chinese versions of both are far more expensive than the imported stuff we can buy.

So with the little that I have to go on I would make a guess and say:

X1: 1-2 million lifetime (the least popular brand in the "underground" console market here, and sold 100K on launch, so it could make some millions in sales at least)
PS4: 4-6 million lifetime (just a number based on nothing really, should sell better than X1 since the PS brand is more popular here however)
Wii U: 2-3 million lifetime (if it ever get released here, which I doubt since it's not even released in HK after 2 years on the market, only based on popularity of the N brand here)

What about you? :)

Honestly, I think it's kinda difficult to predict much of anything until the ps4 starts selling there. For it's launch, I'll say the ps4 sells 150k to 200k.

Thanks for the insight from someone who lives in China.

Back on topic, it will be really hard to predict sales over there especially with no pre existing data. Though no doubt Xbone will sell the least.

So youre saying popularity wise Sony is double that of Nintendo? In that case my predictions are about the same as the OPs.

PS4 5 million. XB1 1.5M

Not necessarily, but perhaps the PS brand is a little more popular. But if Wii U ever gets a release here I think it will be some years after X1 and PS4, and there will be some "lost" sales in those years, so even though PS and Nintendo are about equal in China(it's difficult to say which is bigger) I think that Sony will do a better job with their advertisement and to attract new buyers than Nintendo will. I suppose those two factors puts Wii U half of my PS4 prediction.

All I can be sure about is that PSP/PSV is more popular than DS/3DS, but once again, not by a large margin. If I look at tgbus I can see that they have sold 792 PSV, 496 3DS and 403 PSP, so all three are popular. Apart from them 202 PS4, 124 X360 and 67 PS3. 28 Wii, 19 Wii U and 1 X1.

But don't be alarmed by the low numbers for especially Wii U and X1. When they have sold out the old ones and get a new batch of imported consoles the numbers goes down to 0 again, if they don't import the same SKU again of course. For the Wii U they sell the JP version now but when I bought mine from them it was the US version. They tend to change SKU pretty often between different regions, mostly between US and JP, but I can also see some EU versions from time to time. And of course HK versions if available, they are the most attractive ones.