So here we have a really difficult market to predict on, we don't really have any sources or previous sales to look back on or any new numbers released by Microsoft.
I will try to make a guess anyway and in the end it will be interesting to see if I am close or not. :)
For X1 I will use the 100K that they sold on launch as some kind of base for my guess, and use the 100K x 10 years (which I guess the consoles could last) so that gives me 1 million in lifetime sales for China.
For PS4 I will try to use tgbus as some kind of indicator. The current SKU they have on the website has sold of 200 units, and give the same number to the other SKU (EU/JP) and I have 600 units sold by this shop, in one year. And if I pretend that 600 units equals 600K for an actually released console nationwide it would mean 600K x 10 years. Which gives me 6 millions in lifetime sales for China.
And if I look at popularity among the "underground" console market, the PSV, 3DS, PSP and PS4 are the most popular choices, in that order. After them the Wii, PS3 and X360 are all more popular than DS, X1 and Wii U. So if I go by this indicator I think that PS4 should sell better than X1.
There's also the price point, the PS4 is cheaper than X1, even though the Chinese versions of both are far more expensive than the imported stuff we can buy.
So with the little that I have to go on I would make a guess and say:
X1: 1-2 million lifetime (the least popular brand in the "underground" console market here, and sold 100K on launch, so it could make some millions in sales at least)
PS4: 4-6 million lifetime (just a number based on nothing really, should sell better than X1 since the PS brand is more popular here however)
Wii U: 2-3 million lifetime (if it ever get released here, which I doubt since it's not even released in HK after 2 years on the market, only based on popularity of the N brand here)
What about you? :)
