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Forums - Politics - Thoughts/predictions on the 2016 USA presidential election

 

Who will be the next president?

Hillary Clinton 47 51.09%
 
Joe Biden 3 3.26%
 
Martin O'Mally 0 0%
 
Mitt Romney 5 5.43%
 
Jeb Bush 5 5.43%
 
Chris Christie 2 2.17%
 
Rand Paul 15 16.30%
 
Marco Rubio 3 3.26%
 
Scott Walker 0 0%
 
Other 12 13.04%
 
Total:92
gergroy said:

well... would Romney vs Clinton really be all that better?

Slightly, as sad as that would be.

Also, Clinton does seem the inevitable Dem nominee (but then again, she did at this point in 2007 as well) but the years haven't been kind to her and I think an elderly woman is going to have a tough time getting elected, Clinton or no.



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gergroy said:

I really have a hard time seeing any other democrat besides clinton getting the nomination... so at least half of that scenario is all but guaranteed...

Even if the democrats have taken a beating in house races, I still think on a national scale the republicans will struggle to take back the White House.  Christie is their best bet, but I could see them going a perceived safer route with Jeb Bush. Wild card is Rand Paul, but I think too much of the establishment does not want his new image for the party.



badgenome said:

I will say, I disagree that this is a warm up for Christie. I think Christie (and any other Republican who stands a serious chance) didn't run last time because they didn't want to go up against an incumbent president. That's why it was "Mr. Electricity" Mitt Romney and a bunch of unelectable goofs.

That's not to say that Christie wouldn't run again in four years if the Dems win. But if he does run this time, it's the real deal.

I'm sure Christie won't pull any punches if he runs.  I'm sure he will be all in.  I just don't think his chances are great this time which is why I called it a warm up.  He has been dragged down by scandals all year and that isn't how you want to enter a presidential race.  

I would be very excited if he did end up getting the nomination though, as he is probably the only candidate from both parties that I think would make a good president... at least at this point...



gergroy said:

I'm sure Christie won't pull any punches if he runs.  I'm sure he will be all in.  I just don't think his chances are great this time which is why I called it a warm up.  He has been dragged down by scandals all year and that isn't how you want to enter a presidential race.  

I would be very excited if he did end up getting the nomination though, as he is probably the only candidate from both parties that I think would make a good president... at least at this point...

Well, if his chances aren't great this time they'd be even worse in 2020. It is very rare to bump off an incumbent.



Augen said:
gergroy said:

I really have a hard time seeing any other democrat besides clinton getting the nomination... so at least half of that scenario is all but guaranteed...

Even if the democrats have taken a beating in house races, I still think on a national scale the republicans will struggle to take back the White House.  Christie is their best bet, but I could see them going a perceived safer route with Jeb Bush. Wild card is Rand Paul, but I think too much of the establishment does not want his new image for the party.

I don't know, I think Rubio and Walker are more of a wild card, until they get more known nationally it is hard to see how they will do...  Rand Paul is too polarizing to be a party nominee...



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badgenome said:
gergroy said:

I'm sure Christie won't pull any punches if he runs.  I'm sure he will be all in.  I just don't think his chances are great this time which is why I called it a warm up.  He has been dragged down by scandals all year and that isn't how you want to enter a presidential race.  

I would be very excited if he did end up getting the nomination though, as he is probably the only candidate from both parties that I think would make a good president... at least at this point...

Well, if his chances aren't great this time they'd be even worse in 2020. It is very rare to bump off an incumbent.

only lately, historically incumbants have gotten knocked out quite a bit.  I'm thinking more of the primary anyway.  Republicans who have run before generally have a better chance with a second run...



You know, US politics would be more interesting if the voting system was revised so more parties could come to power.



Warren has declared she won't run. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, is looking on the Democratic side.

O'Malley can try if he wants, but losing a blue state like Maryland, even if in a Republican wave year, is really going to hurt his ability to get others to believe in him.

It'll be Clinton against somebody like Sanders who will lurch to her left. Biden, possibly, if Sanders really fizzles.

On the right, i'm surprised Paul Ryan declared he was out. Bush, Romney, and Walker look like their big three. Christie, possibly, if Bridgegate from the left and his (in)famous photo with Obama after superstorm Sandy from the right don't leave him dead in the water. Moderates will see a governor who functions like a mafia thug, while Partiers will only see that photo.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

gergroy said:

only lately, historically incumbants have gotten knocked out quite a bit.  I'm thinking more of the primary anyway.  Republicans who have run before generally have a better chance with a second run...

Christie still has too much charisma and probably too much of an ego to be the sacrificial lamb. In that kind of a situation Republicans like to go with some respectable old stiff who doesn't have a hope in hell and whose "turn" it is. My money's on John McCain's corpse in 2020.



badgenome said:
gergroy said:

well... would Romney vs Clinton really be all that better?

Slightly, as sad as that would be.

Also, Clinton does seem the inevitable Dem nominee (but then again, she did at this point in 2007 as well) but the years haven't been kind to her and I think an elderly woman is going to have a tough time getting elected, Clinton or no.

As an older woman, she has the advantage of it being harder for them to get misogynist memes to stick, i think. I mean, in terms of "demographics which are distrusted", we got a black man elected, why not an old white woman?



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.