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gergroy said:

only lately, historically incumbants have gotten knocked out quite a bit.  I'm thinking more of the primary anyway.  Republicans who have run before generally have a better chance with a second run...

Christie still has too much charisma and probably too much of an ego to be the sacrificial lamb. In that kind of a situation Republicans like to go with some respectable old stiff who doesn't have a hope in hell and whose "turn" it is. My money's on John McCain's corpse in 2020.