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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon US January monthly bestsellers and general amazon based discussions

Namiirei on 29 January 2015
Roronaa_chan said:
new updates

Week 19-25: PS4 #12, XB1 #26
Week 26-31: PS4 #14, XB1 #40

January: PS4 #9, XB1 #19


Vgchartz numbers for january will be awful, same as last year.

This npd will hurt this site, again... I still don't know how you can miss such a easy prediction week.



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Pionner on 29 January 2015
Hiku said:
AlfredoTurkey said:
Hiku said:

As several people pointed out, sales did not just come in. VGC numbers did. And their numbers this time last year had XO overtracked by as much as 100k in the US. Which begs the question, are you aware of the difference between VGC numbers, and NPD numbers? VGC numbers are guesstimates. NPD are official sales numbers in the US. VGC adjust their numbers according to the NPD each month.

I'm perfectly fine with waiting for NPD numbers. Until then though, we have ZERO, factual numbers to go by. So why is everyone just saying "last year bla bla bla" like that somehow means this year is going to be the exact same situation? Am I the only one who thinks ioi isn't dumb enough to make the same mistake twice? 

The only facts we have right now is that he haven't seen the PS4 win the US for months. That's a fact. Until I see otherwise, I am not going to just assume the PS4 is all of a sudden winning again. 

Because you're making a point based off of the VGC estimates that XBO won. If you're perfectly fine waiting for NPD, then why did you proclaim "Xbone won the US... AGAIN."? As for ioi not making the same mistake twice.... we're way past twice by now. And not just for XBO either.

And you leave out a very important fact. That Xbox One was sold at a much lower value during those two months where it won. As low as $150 in some cases. (Console + 5 free games + $50 gift card for $450 is what my friend got it for.)
And you claim that a PS4 win would be "sudden" in the week where Xbox One went up in price again to $400.
How would that be a "sudden" win, seeing as it outsold Xbox One every single week in 2014 when they were the same price?

Yes, nothing is set in stone yet. I'm not claiming that. But you were by claiming that it already won. And that's what I found silly.
And the way you're presenting your argument seems rather insincere.

- You cite VGC numbers as if they're fact, when you know that most people here are aware that they're not.
- You say a PS4 win with equal price points would be "sudden", when most people know that's what it's been doing all along.
- You don't specify that it was only two months and just say "for months", when most people know it was just two specific months.
- You don't mention that the price/deals of the XBO were the main factor in why it sold so well, when you know that most people already knows this.


It's almost as if you're content with just making your post look a certain way, rather than trying to actually convince anyone, or make a sincere argument.



Nice post. He's clearly ignoring data and trends and making up stuff to fit his argument. All the the while forgetting one more important fact.......Sony still has yet to touch the PS4's price.

Formerly ilovegirls69  :(

binary solo on 29 January 2015
Aura7541 said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

I'm perfectly fine with waiting for NPD numbers. Until then though, we have ZERO, factual numbers to go by. So why is everyone just saying "last year bla bla bla" like that somehow means this year is going to be the exact same situation? Am I the only one who thinks ioi isn't dumb enough to make the same mistake twice? 

The only facts we have right now is that he haven't seen the PS4 win the US for months. That's a fact. Until I see otherwise, I am not going to just assume the PS4 is all of a sudden winning again. 

Here's the link to the OP of Boutros's December NPD thread and scroll down to the bottom to see the archives: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6994455

There, you can see how wonky VGC's tracking was (and is) and how the site incorrectly predicted the X1 winning certain months when the PS4 actually won.

Ya'll are collectively giving Mr Turkey too much airtime his fundamentally flawed thinking. People should learn by now that there is no arguing people around to a more logical way of thinking when it goes against their personal desires.

The clear facts are these: We're pretty much at the end of the month and PS4 is 10 places ahead of Xb one for the month on Amazon.

This is a very strong indicator (hourly chart is not) that NPD will have PS4 ahead of Xb one for the month. Because aside from the launch months in 2013 Amazon is batting 1000 on predicting the NPD winner between PS4 and Xb one. This is a far superior record to VGC, which is why the Amazon monthly chart is an interesting discussion point.

It is rather incomprehensible to believe that Xb one sold more in the one full week of the month that it was the same price as PS4, but that PS4 outsold Xb one for the rest of the month with Xb one being $50 cheaper for 2/3 of that time. And that PS4 outsold it by enough to overcome that 1 week lead Xb one had at the beginning of the month. This is would be magical economic gravity defying stuff for PS4 to turn a week 1 loss  when it was the same price into a January win when it was more expensive for half of the month. Much less magical is that PS4 substantially outsold Xb one for the 2-ish weeks Xb one was at $399, and that it outsold it marginally for the other 2 weeks of January.

Amazon and NPD may diverge this month, that is quite possible specially with Xb one and PS4 both being in the top 20 for the month, which was pretty much never the case for the 10 months of 2014 when PS4 won every NPD. As a predictor of NPD Amazon wou;d become less reliable the close the two consoles come to each other on the bestseller list. But n this case if the final gap for the month remains at to places then I think Amazon is still very likely to accurately prdict the NPD winner. If the gap in any given month is 5 places or less I'd say Amazon would be less reliable. I reckon there's about a 10% chance that Xb one wins NPD with a 10 position gap in the Amazon chart.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

TheGoldenBoy on 29 January 2015
BraLoD said:
Geez we really gone over 100 pages here.
Kudos Teeqoz.

For me it's only page 21



TheGoldenBoy on 29 January 2015
BraLoD said:
TheGoldenBoy said:

For me it's only page 21


50 posts/page is too much

I had 10 posts/page in the beginning but it was way too less. You have to keep on switching pages on more active threads.



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Kerotan on 29 January 2015

The order should do good in the UK considering it's based in London.



GribbleGrunger on 29 January 2015
TheGoldenBoy said:

For me it's only page 21

Only 11 pages for me!



 

The PS5 Exists. 


TheGoldenBoy on 29 January 2015
GribbleGrunger said:
TheGoldenBoy said:

For me it's only page 21

Only 11 pages for me!

I tried using 100 posts/page but it was too much. Also, it would sometimes take way too long to load and VGC isn't that fast to begin with.



GribbleGrunger on 29 January 2015
TheGoldenBoy said:

I tried using 100 posts/page but it was too much. Also, it would sometimes take way too long to load and VGC isn't that fast to begin with.

Eh? I've never had a problem loading pages here.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


AlfredoTurkey on 30 January 2015
Mikmster said:

Facts, they are what they are.  Not what you wish they be.  


... and the FACTS are, that the PS4 hasn't won a week since October. That's a fact, period. That's not my opinion, that's a fact. We have conjecture, we have opinion and we have estimates. But the only FACT is, that we still haven't seen the PS4 win a week since October.