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Forums - Sales - 2015 hardware sales predictions

Muh predictions:

PS4: 19 million - 21 million.
XBO: 8 million - 9 million.
Less restricted supply in first half should help PS4 quite a bit. Also, exclusives by the shovel-full. And, an increase in Japan.
XB1 will probably go loaded during holidays again.

NWU: 3.5 million - 4 million.
Why do I predict a YoY increase? Because Nintendo is just fucking up the execution of 2014, that's why! No bundles, awkward droughts, no price drop, crappy marketing!

3DS: 7 million - 9 million.
N3DS will slow down decline, and perhaps stop it entirely. I have no idea how well it'll sell in Japan, though. Consumption tax hike and all.

PSV: 2 million.
Because I feel like it.



 
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Lawlight said:
zorg1000 said:
Lawlight said:

Why are people thinking that 3DS sales will be flat YoY?


Not sure what ur talking about, most of the predictions for 3DS are 7-9 million next year. If this site is correct (could very well be incorrect but until we get official confirmation, it's a good estimate) than 3DS is on track to sell about 9.5-10 million this year.

Let's say this year is on the lower end so 9.5m and next year is right in the middle of most predictions so about 8m. That would be a 15-20% YoY decline, which isn't too unlikely.

So, it will sell 1.5-2 million in the next 2 weeks?

3 weeks actually. Week ending Dec 20th, Dec 27th, Jan 3rd. This week is 576k, the next 3 weeks could be 750-800k, 500-600k, 250-300k. Which would put it at 9.6-9.8m for 2014 total.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Lawlight said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
Lawlight said:

Why are people thinking that 3DS sales will be flat YoY?

Nintendo New 3DS and its exclusives (Xenoblade being biggest so far), price drops for older models (I believe a $30-50 drop apiece should reel in firesale-chasers), and a stronger line-up of games in 2015.

Well, I'm still doubting that line-up, but I expect more announcements next year. They already have Q1 and Q2 releases lined up in there, after all.


The New 3DS didn't help the decline in Japan so what makes you think it will in EU/NA? 2014 was a better line-up as well sales-wise.

It actually helped alot in Japan.

According to Media Create, week 1-40 (pre-N3DS) in Japan was 2013-3.2 million, 2014-1.6 million. 3DS was down 50% YOY thru the first 3 quarters.

Week 41-51 (New 3DS launch-now) is 2013-1.5million, 2014-1.4 million. New 3DS caused it to go from down 50% YOY in Q1-Q3 to pretty much flat in Q4.

If that's not helping the decline, then I don't know what is. 



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I have underestimated PS4 so many times...

PlayStation 4 will add another 20+ million and end at 40+ million

Xbox One will add 9-11 million and end at 20-22 million

Wii U will add around 2.5 million and end at around 11 million

 

I think my PS4 estimates are a bit low and the xb1 is a bit high but it's difficult to predict agressive pricing and from Ms, China and the Final Fantasy effect in Japan.



Don't copy random editorials.

Here are the Wedbush estimates from February 2014

Note: it's total sales

Larger image http://cdn4.dualshockers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/ConsoleInstalled-Base.jpg?eaa32f



Don't copy random editorials.

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PS4---20.5 m

PS4 will surpass the 20m units sold per year. The more it sells, the more people will choose it over the XBone. If they made online free it would effectively murder the XBone in cold blood, but that won't happen.

XBone--6 m (1,5m with Halo bump)

XBone can't effectively compete with PS4 without a lot of investment (pricedrops, bundles, timed exclusives...), so the gap between them will continue. The only significant bump the XBone will get is Halo, before and after Halo the console will be constantly pummeled by the PS4.

WiiU---3.5 m

WiiU has used all of its big guns, so the weekly sales will be healthy enough to repair the losses of the first year, but without any significant benefits or spectacular sales. WiiU might sell more, since it already has a steady library, though. This console will have the most stable sales of all.

3DS----7.5m

I suppose the next year would be the real test of fire for the 3DS, XBone and WiiU. 3DS has the N3DS coming to the west, but has no system-seller (Even Youkai Watch probably won't make a big difference in the west). The most optimistic prediction for 3DS is selling as much as it did this year. I hope Nintendo keeps the handheld alive until 2018, but that is too optimistic.

Vita---1.2m

Vita might surpass the 10m units by the end of the year, China won't be interested in the handheld when they are used to mobile. Sony won't make anymore AAA or AA (or even A) exclusive for the console when they can put it on the PS4 or PS3 and sell way more.

The last gen consoles sell well enough to keep its price. Maybe at the end of the year the Wii is finally discontinued, but I'm sure the console is really cheap to produce, and it makes a small profit, enough to keep the system alive.



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PS4 - 18

X1 - 9

Wii U - 6

3DS - 12

Vita - 4



Sully_The_Best said:
PS4 - 18

X1 - 9

Wii U - 6

3DS - 12

Vita - 4

Why would Wii U sell 6 million next year when it only sold around 3 this year, a year with its biggest franchises?



Don't copy random editorials.

End of 2014 :

1) PS4 : 20.5M

2) X1 : 11.5M

3) WiiU : 8.5M

End of 2015 :

1) PS4 : 43M

2) X1 :24M

3) WiiU :12.5M



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

My guess (in units of millions):

PS4 - 19.0
I expect an official price drop to 350$/€ and/or 1TB HDD as standard

XOne - 10.5
I expect an official price drop to 350$/€ including a game

WiiU - 4.5
I expect an official price drop to 250$/€ for the 32 GB model, and more gamers will start to pick up the WiiU as a second current gen console

3DS - 8.0
I don't expect any real price drops and guess that the NN3DS will be available for a MSRP of 169$/€ and 199$/€ for the XL version

Vita - 2.0
I guess that 150$/€ will be the standard price in 2015, but that won't help the Vita much. Only the synergy with the PS4 and PS+ will stop sales from falling even further