kowenicki said:
Interesting... and what do you reckon total combined gen sales will be? Last gen being 270m to 280m. You already have PS4 at 120m and WiiU at 15m. Thats only 135m.
|
I said 120m will be relatively easy. I expect PS4 to sell over that in the end, possibly as much as 140m. So let's take the average and say 130m for PS4, 15m for WiiU. Then I'd guess around 70m for XB1 if MS keep working it, possibly more. Would put this generation at 215m+.
kowenicki said:
70m. I'd take that. Not bad for a console thats "dead" in most of the world and a steady performance for the xbox brand. Did we have a thread for lifetime predictions? from late last year or just after the gen started? |
Are you crazy?
Do you actually believe such nonsense?
Or did i miss some recently announced deals for the X1?
The X360 is > using VGC Numbers < @ 84 Million Units.
This console absolutely dominated the USA.How many millions is it ahead of the PS3 in the USA?Around 20 Million difference in the USA right?
The 360 did pretty good in Europe - Just 8 Million difference in the favor of the PS3 using VGC Numbers.
You really think the X1 can reach 70 Million in times like we currently have?
The X1 doesn't have a 20 Million lead in the USA and never will have.
In Europe the console won't stay 8 Million behind - Europe(THERE IS MORE THAN THE UK!!!) is a 1 console Gen.This is a complete salesfestival for the Playstation this Gen.
So what actually makes you think the X1 will reach 70 Million without BEASTING the PS4 in any region?
November and December aren't the standard months of the X1
And to come back to what i mentioned > Did i miss some recently announced deals?Stays or does the X1 get even more pricecuts+bundles for 2015 to be competitive 12 out of 12 months?
If not then the PS4 will gain ground again which the X1 will obviously get back at again with 200$(and less) bundles in November and December.
So they stay neck on neck.
So in the end this means
The X1 has to sell nearly the same as the 360 but this time with having a much superior competitor
Selling 70 Million mainly only in the US and doing just good numbers when the holidays come...
Just being able to compete in their home territory with insane deals in 2 out of 12 months - It had no chance in the other months and i hope you didn't forget
Having absolutely no chance in Europe and not even coming close to the PS4 here.Nearly all consoles sales from EUrope are for the PS4.
Germany is just a prime example what is happening here AND deals won't change shit.We aren't buyable.
And again im talking about the whole of Europe - Not just you US Fanboys in the UK.
inb4 Germany is small fry - Yeah sure believe that.BÄM 1 Million difference here already.It adds up in the masses.
Have fun LOL
Obviously 70 Million in times that aren't to far away and before the console gets discontinued right?
And obviously before Microsoft really announces the 200$ bundle in January or some other crazy shit pretty early into the Gen.
Remember - We are 1 year into this Gen and Microsoft already pulled all guns just to do good 2 months while not being able to win at all worldwide with that.So its pretty unpredictable what Microsoft will do to counter 2015 and stuff.They throw money out the windows as if its candy.
Going by what is currently on the horizon and not some complete surprise deals and stuff we can't even see coming.
Thing is, XB1 doesn't need to "BEAST" PS4 anywhere to reach 70m. If it can reach 40m in NA, which I see as a possibility as long as MS keep being competitive, it would only need 30m from the rest of the world. Almost 10m of that will most likely come from the UK, leaving 20m from the rest of Europe and rest of the world.
PS4 would still be dozens upon dozens of millions ahead of XB1 globally.
| Ninsect said: Thing is, XB1 doesn't need to "BEAST" PS4 anywhere to reach 70m. If it can reach 40m in NA, which I see as a possibility as long as MS keep being competitive, it would only need 30m from the rest of the world. Almost 10m of that will most likely come from the UK, leaving 20m from the rest of Europe and rest of the world. PS4 would still be dozens upon dozens of millions ahead of XB1 globally. |
ehh I ojnly see xbox one doing 30 million US 7 million UK
17 million everywhere else
54 million lifetime
Bets:
(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.
(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.
Raichu's First Series:
Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:
Familiars Captured:37
Game Beaten: 2 times almost
Times I got teary during some scenes: 3
| Ninsect said: Thing is, XB1 doesn't need to "BEAST" PS4 anywhere to reach 70m. If it can reach 40m in NA, which I see as a possibility as long as MS keep being competitive, it would only need 30m from the rest of the world. Almost 10m of that will most likely come from the UK, leaving 20m from the rest of Europe and rest of the world. PS4 would still be dozens upon dozens of millions ahead of XB1 globally. |
You're dreaming man. No way xb one hits 40M in USA. 360 is only on 44M and according to everyone other than vgc this is overtracking. Ps4 and Xb one are splitting the market which means roughly 30m each. And as for UK 360 is over 1M off reaching 10M which means 10M there is a pipe dream. The way the market is splitting there xb on will fall well short of 360.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
| kowenicki said: I'm not downplaying. I'm overlaying some context. Deny the context all you want, but it is real and relevant. Thanks.
|
Of course you are. You are saying that the because the other consoles aren't doing as well, the PS4's success is irrelevant. That is the context of what you are saying. Why else would you say that the PS4 needs to sell 160 million? Its okay. PS4 is at least the sencond fastest selling console, it will surpass 50% and its success will not be a function of your bias lol.
binary solo said:
You're dreaming man. No way xb one hits 40M in USA. 360 is only on 44M and according to everyone other than vgc this is overtracking. Ps4 and Xb one are splitting the market which means roughly 30m each. And as for UK 360 is over 1M off reaching 10M which means 10M there is a pipe dream. The way the market is splitting there xb on will fall well short of 360. |
Then can you tell us what you think the total lifetime sales will be for the Xbox1. While you are at it you might as well share your thoughts in regards to PS4 and WiiU as well if you don't mind thanks.
Xbox 360 and Xbox One
Gamertag: GamertagOz70
X1 wont even sniff near 70 million in lt sales.
45 best case scenario.
Ryng_Tolu said:
Depend. PS2 have sold 900K in the first November NPD, and 1.9M in December. Have more than double the sales... So, PS4 have chance for sell 1.6M to 1.8M. November to December sales have recenlty gone away from the 2x sales increase. Not likely, and going by this logic, XB1 would have a chance to get >2.4m sales. XBOX 360 sold 1.67M in the November 2011 NPD, and 1.72M in the December of 2011. That is +3% of boost... If will happen this scenario, December 2014 will be: PS4: 1.7M, and XO: 1.28M. And this is what I mean. The ~2x sales increase MoM has gone down in recent years. And it makes no sense to compare the 360 in 2011 and give that % increase to the One, when you use the PS2 in 2000 for the PS4. But the gap is too much. Let's say 1,500,000 for PS4 and 1,400,000 for XO. As of right now, you have no logical basis for this assumption. You are assuming the PS4 gets an increase of sales by 80%, but the One only 14%? ----------------------------------- First week: 280K XO - 225K PS4 Alright Second: 320K XO - 300K PS4 Hmm, again, what causes the PS4 to get that big boost, but the One only gets a tiny boost in comparison? Third: 350K XO - 450K PS4 (huge boost thanks Destiny bundle at 350$) The Destiny Bundle was pretty low on stock. Would not cause such a boost. And why, on the biggest week of the month, does the One only get an increase of 30k? fourth: 310K XO - 375K PS4 Again, no reason for the PS4 to be above the One. Five: 150K XO (close PS4 because last week of 350$ price) - 150K PS4 Again, no. If anything, the XB1 would be farther away (more than) from the PS4 as this would be the final week of the promotion. Anyone that didn't get the One at that price yet would get it then. ------------------------------------ |
Responses in BOLD.
Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287
Ninsect said:
But XB1 was significantly overtracked in Nov so why would the gut feeling tell you it's undertracked? ;o |
Oh! I had it in reverse then :(
-puts head on table-
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