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Forums - Sales - Global Hardware/Software Up - 1 November 2014

DerNebel said:
According to this sites data there have been almost 2 million PS4s on shelves at the end of September...why is the PS4 being adjusted down here?


Because they don't want to do good predictions anymore, so they just try to let 2 ps4 =  1 one, and it's enough apparently...



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To everybody that are interested.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6598658

"On the subject of Sony's 10m announcement and adjustments and in an attempt to be fully transparent - until we can figure out where the "missing" 600k units have been sold then we obviously can't adjust the figures since they certainly aren't in the USA, Canada, Mexico and South America, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Russia, Australia, New Zealand or Japan in which our data is very accurate and lines up well with other data providers. Our estimates for the other regions (Middle East, Africa, Asia) are rough estimates based on trends seen with PS2 / PS3.

Our data for the regions we track as listed above for PS4 adds up to around 9.0m which should be accurate to +/- 100k. We estimate a further 140k in the Middle East and Africa and 290k in the remainder of Asia taking us to the 9.4m you can see on the homepage.

If Sony's numbers are to be believed as being accurate sell-through then clearly they have sold an enormously disproportional amount in one of those regions and once we know which one we can make the necessary adjustments. We can't just add 600k units to the total - we need to know which regions to adjust so we can ensure that we are on track moving forwards. This is why adjustments don't always happen straight away or sometimes not at all - we can't just randomly add sales here and there to make things add up!

 The same goes for complaints about PS3 and 360 sales - until we can get hard data for regions such as the Middle East, Africa, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, India, China and so on then the best we can do is extrapolate based on general market trends and make best estimates for specific platform sales in those regions. If you wish to help and know of any reports or research in those regions then let me know and we can compare to our estimates and make adjustments as necessary." 

 

The if for me looks like he don't believe in Sony but who knows... the consecutives downgrade adjustments looks really weird.



ethomaz said:

To everybody that are interested.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6598658

"On the subject of Sony's 10m announcement and adjustments and in an attempt to be fully transparent - until we can figure out where the "missing" 600k units have been sold then we obviously can't adjust the figures since they certainly aren't in the USA, Canada, Mexico and South America, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Russia, Australia, New Zealand or Japan in which our data is very accurate and lines up well with other data providers. Our estimates for the other regions (Middle East, Africa, Asia) are rough estimates based on trends seen with PS2 / PS3.

Our data for the regions we track as listed above for PS4 adds up to around 9.0m which should be accurate to +/- 100k. We estimate a further 140k in the Middle East and Africa and 290k in the remainder of Asia taking us to the 9.4m you can see on the homepage.

If Sony's numbers are to be believed as being accurate sell-through then clearly they have sold an enormously disproportional amount in one of those regions and once we know which one we can make the necessary adjustments. We can't just add 600k units to the total - we need to know which regions to adjust so we can ensure that we are on track moving forwards. This is why adjustments don't always happen straight away or sometimes not at all - we can't just randomly add sales here and there to make things add up!

 The same goes for complaints about PS3 and 360 sales - until we can get hard data for regions such as the Middle East, Africa, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, India, China and so on then the best we can do is extrapolate based on general market trends and make best estimates for specific platform sales in those regions. If you wish to help and know of any reports or research in those regions then let me know and we can compare to our estimates and make adjustments as necessary." 

 

The if for me looks like he don't believe in Sony but who knows... the consecutives downgrade adjustments looks really weird.

To me it sounds like he is doing his job.

Lets say I'm doing a bank reconcilliation.  

When I get done checking things and what my book shows is different than what the bank shows, I can't just add or subtract the number to make it match. I need to figure out what is missing or added.  



I expect Vita sales to rise in NA... a bit, if u buy an Xperia phone u get one for free.

Come on Wii U, rise from the death!



So is it safe to say Ps4 sales are some 750k undertracked?



e=mc^2

Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)

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"If Sony's numbers are to be believed" this caused an outrage xD

edit on topic: ps4 total seems a bit low, but it's having good numbers week after week, may be in playstation experience sony will announce more numbers for us to compare :) but i can see ps4 at 13m+ by the end of October..



Safe to say Sunset Overdrive flopped?



Massive downward adjustment for PS4 from last week: OP from the 25 Oct thread:
PS4: 301,449
XB1: 138,810
WiiU: 51,442
3DS: 223,460
Vita: 26,782
X360: 37,776
PS3: 50,696
Wii: 9,860

Official chart now shows PS4 at 227K and Xb one at 118K.

The reason SO gave any boost was because of the white bundle, so it's actually the white Xb one that cause a boost not SO. SO is looking to have a similar opening week as Bayonetta. As to actual game sales, I'm going to guess 25K SO white bundles, which means the game itself made a reasonable start among those who really wanted to buy it.

Re adjustments for PS4. If Sony is shipping 1.1M consoles per month, that means for the quarter Oct-Dec they can only ship 3.3 million. That is probably going to be about the number of PS4's they sell in December, which means they need a good 2 million head room going in to the final quarter (to meet Oct and Nov demand) in order to not experience severe shortages. That means 12 million sell through with 13.5M shipped at end of Sept is about 500K short of what Sony needs to have shipped in order to be sure of meeting demand this holidays. If Sony can ramp up to 1.3 million shipments per month they might just make it through the holidays with a few units still on shelves on 1 January.

VGC has PS4 at 11.6 million sell through at the end of Sept, which in terms of supply planning is a lot more comfortable for Sony.

I think Sony will announce a 15 million sell through when it gets there, it'll be interesting to see where VGC is at at that point. If VGC is close to right then a Sony 15 million sell through announcement won't happen until December. If it's at 13 million then it will probably happen end of November. Personally I think PS4 will have shortages, which means I think VGC is under. But that's based on nothing in particular.

Cod boost for PS4 should put it up to about 400K for the week. For Xb one should be up to around 300K. Post CoD PS4 should drop back to low 300K, Halo MCC boost should slightly conterbalance post CoD drop which means a close week between PS4 and Xb one globally.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

tak13 said:
ethomaz said:
Intrinsic said:

Wait a min... can someone help clear this up for me.

 

  • As at the end of september 2014, sony had shipped a total of 13.5M PS4s worldwide. 
  • So sony is (which coincides with some rumors earlier this year) has been shipping around 1.1M consoles per month.
  • So its safe to say that at the end of October, a total of around 14.6M PS4s had been shipped at least. Cause typically everyone starts ramping production and shipping up in october to meet the increased demand of the holiday season. But lets assume none of that happenned and sony still shipped only 1.1M average.
  • VGC tracking has the PS4 at 12.6M sold as of the end of October. That means according to VGC there are currently at least 2M PS4s ON SHELVES
  • Where as every other console has no more than 1.5M consoles on shelves. According to VGC tracking. 
  • So basically, the best selling console for the past 12 months is seemingly having the hardest time selling its shipped hardware
Please, and this is a sincere question so I would like someone who knows more about this stuff to help me understand why. Is there something extremely wrong with the PS4 tracking? Like something is just very very very fundamentally wrong with how the PS4 is tracked here at VGC. That's why as of the time when sony announced they had sold 10M consoles VGC was undertracking the PS4 by as much as 1M consoles. Is it just getting worse? Cause these numbers just doesn't make sense at all. I can even come up with a possible scenario by which these numbers make sense.

 

ioi already said Sony numbers are suspicious because he can't find an algorithms that show where these sales are.

You know estimates >>> products sales

explain me this?you mean that he thinks that sony is doctoring ps4 sales?

 

It's a bunch of BS is what it is. ioi got banned from Gaf for posting numbers and often times fluffing up 360 numbers significantly. I'm not one to throw accusations of bias around but we are at a point where there is really no other answer to why the PS4 numbers are so irrational.

Seriously,  accusing Sony of lying?  Implying that these site has better tracking then the company that actually makes and sells the product and has access to a ton of trackers and all their retail partners. I'm sorry, but that's just laughably bad

 

I'll just wait for official numbers to once again proof VGC wrong. And hey, if I'm wrong and VGC is somehow close to reality, I'll eat crow



Good to see the 3DS and Smash doing well.



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