Global Hardware/Software Up - 1 November 2014

[binary solo]

Massive downward adjustment for PS4 from last week: OP from the 25 Oct thread:
PS4: 301,449
XB1: 138,810
WiiU: 51,442
3DS: 223,460
Vita: 26,782
X360: 37,776
PS3: 50,696
Wii: 9,860

Official chart now shows PS4 at 227K and Xb one at 118K.

The reason SO gave any boost was because of the white bundle, so it's actually the white Xb one that cause a boost not SO. SO is looking to have a similar opening week as Bayonetta. As to actual game sales, I'm going to guess 25K SO white bundles, which means the game itself made a reasonable start among those who really wanted to buy it.

Re adjustments for PS4. If Sony is shipping 1.1M consoles per month, that means for the quarter Oct-Dec they can only ship 3.3 million. That is probably going to be about the number of PS4's they sell in December, which means they need a good 2 million head room going in to the final quarter (to meet Oct and Nov demand) in order to not experience severe shortages. That means 12 million sell through with 13.5M shipped at end of Sept is about 500K short of what Sony needs to have shipped in order to be sure of meeting demand this holidays. If Sony can ramp up to 1.3 million shipments per month they might just make it through the holidays with a few units still on shelves on 1 January.

VGC has PS4 at 11.6 million sell through at the end of Sept, which in terms of supply planning is a lot more comfortable for Sony.

I think Sony will announce a 15 million sell through when it gets there, it'll be interesting to see where VGC is at at that point. If VGC is close to right then a Sony 15 million sell through announcement won't happen until December. If it's at 13 million then it will probably happen end of November. Personally I think PS4 will have shortages, which means I think VGC is under. But that's based on nothing in particular.

Cod boost for PS4 should put it up to about 400K for the week. For Xb one should be up to around 300K. Post CoD PS4 should drop back to low 300K, Halo MCC boost should slightly conterbalance post CoD drop which means a close week between PS4 and Xb one globally.