wiis sold averaged 300k/week the past 6 weeks

add another 1.8mil to 21.87 and we get 23.67, which means nintendo would have shipped right around the 24mil number that they stated in their q3 report

so unless they ship out substantially more than 24mil by 3/31/08, the sales won't be much higher than the previous 6 week average of 300k/week

however, we also know they are making 1.8mil/month and shipped 20mil as of 12/31/08

so they will have made 25.4mil by 3/31/08 if production is at 1.8mil and they shipped EVERYTHING made in December in December...more likely not all product made in December was shipped in December, so they really will have made between 25.5 and 26mil wiis by 3/31/08

so if they only hit the 24mil shipped, then they'll have 1.5-2mil sitting in their factories...some will be the end of march production to be shipped first thing in april, but over 1mil will be 'stockpiled' if they announce they've shipped 24mil in their year-end statement

so either a good portion of that 1 mil stockpile will be sold in March to go with Smash Bros, in which case we'll see average of over 400k/week these 6 weeks, or that stockpile will stay in factory for future use (wii fit release?)

the q4 report from Nintendo should tell us a lot:

a) approx how big the stockpile is based on how far below 26mil their stated shipped number is
b) they should announce a production increase around this time, hopefully already planned now so it can take effect by May

we'll get a preview of the q4 report by looking at sales these next 6 weeks...figure roughly 500k more than ltd sales will be what their shipped number is

personally, i'll predict they sell closer to 400k than 300k/week these next 6 weeks, as they'll use up a good portion of the stockpile, but not all

nintendo likes to do better than they predicted, so they'll wanna say they exceeded the 24mil target and actually shipped closer to 25mil, and 24.27-21.87=2.4mil/6=400k/week...so they will ship close to 25mil with a decent amount being in supply channels, so close to 24.27 ltd sales after the week of 4/5/08

predictions: wii will pass 24mil WW sales by the week ending 4/5/08, which equals roughly 400k/week sales the next 6 reporting periods (last week's sales reported tomorrow through 4/5/08's sales)

this will leave around 1mil stock in factories and around 500k in supply channels to be sold when the boats land

if the stockpile/supply channels remain at the same amount and no production increase happens before 7/31/08, then we're looking at just over 31mil ww sales by 7/31/08...(i personally feel they will increase production at least .5mil/month by mayish, so closer to 32mil sales by 7/31/08)

 if they sell 32mil by 7/31/08 and production was upped to 2.3mil/month june 1st, then we're looking at 9.2mil+1mil+500k=10.7mil more sold after that to bring it up to around 43mil WW sales by 12/31/08

 hopefully they'll do a second increase to close to 3mil by november, but unless they increase faster than 2.3 6/1 and 3mil 11/1, then they won't quite hit the 45mil mark

 we can better predict 12/31/08 sales after we hear their production increase schedule in April

Lets remember that Wii sales last year hit 20,000,000 and were undertracked. It's not out of the realm of possibility that a lot of Wii's are selling at Wal-Mart and other big box stores, and while I think these numbers can be deduced, I'm not sure they can be tracked. Just remember a few things:

1. Nov-Dev brings the weekly average up a lot.

2. All consoles have a tendancy to be undertracked when shipped numbers are released.

3. Nintendo gains more if they release their bulk of stock after the year end financials, making their predictions correct, and their new year start more robustly.

4. There are too many factors to determine anything about supply or demand for the Wii.

1) i'm only talking about end-jan/feb versus end-feb/march

2) true; but if undertracked roughly the same %, then it shouldn't affect this too much

3) so they may hit closer to the 24mil without going over? does anyone know from past nintendo reports if they tend to be right on, or about a mil over or somewhere in between?

4) yeah, that's why the q4 report from nintendo will tell us a lot...we can find out from it roughly what the stockpile+supply chain amount is

Nintendo needs to pick up supply already. This is ridiculous. I promised my 10 year old nephew a Wii for Christmas and still can't find him one. I look like an asshole. I'd buy him one on ebay but they're too much $$$. 

I'd buy him a ps3 instead (he wants a ps3 too), but it costs too much--plus I don't want him stealing my games and blu-rays (like he does with my ps2).

 lol.

 But seriously-consumers nowadays are like spoil brats used to bountiful supplies of everything so when a luxury item is in short supply, everybody acts like they're entitle to it and should be able to get one anytime they wish without realizing the amount of work that goes to the production of these things. Not referring to anyone, just a blanket observation.

You could let them know you mean business by not buying their products.

...but we both know that's not going to happen.

Whatever trouble N is having with production atm, the fact is, once you buy what they are selling, your getting a quality product at a very nice value comparitively, and its just hard to turn one down when its readily available for purchase.

Hence, demand. 

"But seriously-consumers nowadays are like spoil brats used to bountiful supplies of everything"

Yes consumers do that. And they are correct. We do not live in the sovjet union after all. A company that isn't able to produce enough units after more than a year is a bit pathetic. Besides I hardly would call a game console a luxury item today.

then maybe u need to brush up on the definition of luxury item

this lines up with reggies statement about Wii passing 360 by June. You are right about this. Also, I heard that many places were getting major shipments all week long, plus the 130k we KNOW the wii sold last sunday.... the wii could be around 250k this week in NA.

 I think your statements made my point.