aikohualda said: 1.do you think 3ds can pull 5 mil by years end? 1a.if no.... do you think wii u will surpass 3ds numbers? 1b. if yes.... do you think wii u can pull the same number or more? 1a1.... if yes do you think it will cover the rest of the shipments or digital sale by the 3ds? 1a2.... if no then we wont have 10 million digital + shipment. 1b1.... if yes... then you have your 10 million 1b2... if no... then you dont have 10 million digital + shipment. personally i think it wont make it 10 million.... im thinking 4 million 3ds and 2.5 wii u..... im not sure of how fond european market on ssb... they definitely not fond of the 3ds version...hopefully they are holding back for the U version... i think SSBU will perform good in NA... but japanese market is very hesitant on the HC market.... so im calling in 6.5 million by the end of the year.... shipment + digital should be around 7.5 million

Oh  i see sold and shipped. Well for 3ds its already 3.13mil with digital for combined #s Japan+US. I think alone will sell another 900k together there, so 4mil Excluding Europe+Canada and rest of the world (Sold)!

Glad to see you response though

Exblackman said: I say your estimate is a little low and say that it will do 10.5 million shipped plus digital mostly because I believe this game will more wiiu than any other game previously released.

Interesting, Hopefully it is the highest in digital, lets hope for over 9mil first shipped combined! I'll be glad if it got 10.5mil or higher :0

Materia-Blade said: HylianSwordsman said: Not by years end, but lifetime most definitely. The 3DS version alone will probably have over 5 million by years end, and the Wii U version should be approaching 3 million by then at least, so probably over 8 million combined, I'm thinking. The wii u version will be WAY above 3m by the end of 2014.

Shipped? Way above 3mil would be alot if sold, i hope it does though

Now working on 2 more scenarios, a "expected" shipment and an "optimistic" shipment

◆ The "Expected" Case Scenario for Shipped Figures for SSBU+3DS ◆

With this, im going to give you guys the most expected outcome which will probably be around the final number! So i'll be using SM3DW/MK8 as the comparison to SSBU, and for 3DS i'll just give normal estimates.

⇒ SSB 3ds (i'll add in 100k+ for shipments for japan+us, though it'll likely be more, 50k+ Europe for my total estimatesin sales)

*NoA: 2.2mil (As of Nov 1st, sales are 1.2mil US only. This seems like a fair estimate if 50k was on store shelves and add in Canada+Mexico. Around 1.50mil then another 700k for shipment fr all of Nov/Dec)
*Europe: 900k (estimated on vgc about 370k sold excluding digital)
*Japan: 2.5mil (its about 1.93mil as of Nov 8th with Digital, maybe like 70k on store shelves about 2mil. I think an extra 500k is plausible, also Double Pack releases Dec)
*Rest of the World: 200k

Total: 5.8mil WW for around Estimate of What We should expect for SSB 3DS!


⇒SSBU (Nov+Dec shipments!!!)

*US: 1.1mil (SM3DW sold 570k sametime frame, MK8 did 885k with Digital in 37 days)
*Japan: 650k (less time to sell, but SM3DW did do 332k, and MK8 did over 350k Week 1)
*Europe 550k
*Rest of the World 80k

*Total: 2.38mil
 
 
??? Overall Conclusion ????

5.80mil: 3DS About Expected Case Scenario
2.38mil: WiiU About Expected Case Scenario
8.18mil: "Total About Expected Case Scenario

ok finally made this...

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3 Scenarios Observation (Pessimistic/Safe Bet/Optimistic)

● [Scenario 1] = "Worst" Case Scenario      ⇒Total: 6.12mil [4.72mil: 3DS + 1.45mil: WiiU]

⇒[3DS]  NoA:1.8m      Europe:500k     Japan:2.3m        RoW:50k
⇒[WiiU]  NoA:650k      Europe:350k     Japan:400k        RoW:50k
 
■ [Scenario 2] = "Expected Around" Case Scenario   ⇒Total: 8.18mil [5.80mil: 3DS + 2.38mil: WiiU]

⇒[3DS]  NoA:2.2m      Europe:900k     Japan:2.5m       RoW:200k
⇒[WiiU]  NoA:1.1m      Europe:550k     Japan:650k       RoW:80k
 
★ [Scenario 3] = "Optimistic/Best" Case Scenario    ⇒Total: 10.6mil [7.1mil: 3DS + 3.5mil: WiiU]

⇒[3DS]  NoA:2.85m    Europe:1.2m    Japan:2.9m       RoW:350k
⇒[WiiU]  NoA:1.70m    Europe:750k    Japan:900k       RoW: 150k
 
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Enjoy, btw im going with my optimistic prediction

Does anybody kno if nintendo announce #s for SSBU+ORAS, when that'll be? MK8 was the following Tuesday was it not? (of release)

Ok First off, lets begin with... What exactly do we know of 100%! 3DS Sales. We have Concrete #s for US+Japan including digital sales so lets begin there.

~Japan has sold a total of 1.701mil units at retail (Media Create) as of Nov 8th (9 weeks to do this btw). As of Oct 26th Nintendo reported 1.88mil total sales based on Digital and MC tracking, thus the 232k number is from (232k is digital). Putting both together the SSB 3ds game has sold 1.93mil units (without adding the last 2 small weeks of digital).

~US we have official numbers from NPD. 705k sold (135k being digital) for Sept or first 2 days following Oct which is now over 1.2mil including digital sold (so first 30 days practically). Reggie mention about 20% is digital so breakdown in the US is around [Retail:960k] + [Digital: 240k]

So we have currently...

Retail Only ~ Total  ~  Region+Date

1.701mil ⇒ 1.93mil: Japan (Nov 8th)

      905k ⇒ 1.20mil: US (Nov 1st)

2.606mil ⇒ 3.13mil: Total


!!! Overview !!!
3.13mil SOLD in the 2 biggest regions so far, but not all of them. How much do you think Nintendo has shipped (on store shelves) including that 3.13mil figure? 100k? 200k? We are closing in on BF for the US. But putting it at the worse case scenario (lets say 50k for each sitting on store shelves currently for japan+us) thats at least 3.23mil Shipped+Digital

★ [UPDATE 2] ★

US Sales are 490k (wii u) totalling up to about 3.62mil Sold for 3ds+WiiU! (3DS #s are Japan Nov 8th, and US Nov 1st. Both Include Digital)

Tomorrow will be 4mil for both officially confirmed (japan's release of SSBU and we know Europe will be about 100k FW!