♪ A Break Down Analysis to why Both Games Combined Can Reach, if not get close to 10mil Shipped+Digital ♪

★ [UPDATE #1] ★

Ok First off, lets begin with... What exactly do we know of 100%! 3DS Sales. We have Concrete #s for US+Japan including digital sales so lets begin there.

~Japan has sold a total of 1.701mil units at retail (Media Create) as of Nov 8th (9 weeks to do this btw). As of Oct 26th Nintendo reported 1.88mil total sales based on Digital and MC tracking, thus the 232k number is from (232k is digital). Putting both together the SSB 3ds game has sold 1.93mil units (without adding the last 2 small weeks of digital).

~US we have official numbers from NPD. 705k sold (135k being digital) for Sept or first 2 days following Oct which is now over 1.2mil including digital sold (so first 30 days practically). Reggie mention about 20% is digital so breakdown in the US is around [Retail:960k] + [Digital: 240k]

So we have currently...


Retail Only ~ Total  ~  Region+Date

1.701mil ⇒ 1.93mil: Japan (Nov 8th)
      905k ⇒ 1.20mil: US (Nov 1st)
2.606mil ⇒ 3.13mil: Total
     

after SSB 3DS numbers and pre-prders numbers of SSB Wii U directly from Nintendo: Yes

I'd say 8 million combined shipments for years end would be a logical estimate, given the preorders for SSBU and the current sales for SSB3DS. I'd cry with tears of joy if shipments hit 10 mill for December 31st :P

read the first 2 pages!!! Most disagree :P Though i was crazy (jk).

Make sure to read my update, glad you agree. Personally i think 3ds shipments are already over 4mil with digital sales. 3.13mil sold japan+us alone?

you have won the 3ds version bet,i m almost sure you will win the wii u version bet too:P GO GO GO TBONY!

Not yet :P but it is looking good so far. Im making a "Worse Case Scenario" in the opening. Im done with 3ds. I'll post it below here... This will happen practically if SSB 3DS stop selling close to nothing at all for this holiday!

Yeap Worse case scenario will add up to at least iml 4.72mil. Going to be finishing up WiiU worse case scenario soon!

◆ Worst Case Scenario for Shipped Figures for SSBU+3DS as of now! ◆

With this, im going to give you guys the worst outcome which will probably be almost impossible! So i'll be using SM3DW as the comparison to SSBU, and for 3DS i'll just give low estimates i've made up. Lets Gooooooo....

⇒SSB 3DS ( Nov+Dec shipments) *Bonus Nintendo reported 3.22mil shipped WW on SSB 3DS Western Release.

*NoA: 1.8mil (includin Canada+Mexico sold) Nov+Dec= 500k shipped

*Europe: 500k (Though its currently 370k sold, excluding digital, and lets say its overtracked by 100k-150k and shipment all together only hits 500k for the whole year lol)

*Japan: 2.30mil (its at 1.93mil now, but lets say stop selling and add in a shipment of a mere 370k, which also includes the unreleased Double Pack)

*Rest of the World: 120k (just random number and vgc has it about that currently sold)

Total: 4.72mil WW for Shipments in the worse unlikely, almost impossible scenario!!!

Well without digital sales it will probably show on here 10m but I think with them they will be at 12m

i think you should cut 500k from 3ds version and add them to wii u version...6m 3ds and 4m wii u

that might be too high, 3ds would need around 8-9mil and wiiu 3.5-4.5mil

Now onto the SSBU WiiU Worst Case Scenario Shipments. I'll be using SM3DW as a comparison for 2 reasons. First it was released same time last year with a much less user base. Second, i dont think anybody disagrees SSBU>SM3DW. That said i'll also be adding 50k shipment at the end for this comparison... Lets begin!

⇒SSBU (Nov+Dec shipments!!!) *Note, Reggie said at least SSBU>MK8 pre orders(at least for the US), but we'll ignore that here!

*US: 650k (SM3DW did over 570k in the same time period)
*Japan 400k (SM3DW did over 332k first 5 weeks, SSBU will destroy it)
*Europe 350k (SM3DW did 330k but lets say overtracked, so 300k)
*Rest of the World 50k (random #)
*Total: 1.45mil WW for Shipments in the worse unlikely, almost impossible scenario!!!
 
 
Overall Conclusion???

4.72mil: 3DS Worse Case Scenario
1.45mil: WiiU Worse Case Scenario

6.12mil: "Total Worse Case Scenario "